Measuring global trade policy activity

World Trade Organization; Samuele Centorrino; Antonia Diakantoni; Alexander Keck; Michele Ruta; Monika Sztajerowska; Yuting Wei

doi:10.30875/25189808-2025-7

Abstract

This paper introduces the Trade Policy Activity (TPA) Index, a novel indicator measuring evolving global trade policy dynamics since the Global Financial Crisis. Using a Dynamic Factor Model on comprehensive trade policy data covering 197 countries and territories, we document a structural shift around 2019 with a substantial expansion in the use of trade policies.

JEL: C32: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables / Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models ; C38: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables / Classification Methods ; Cluster Analysis ; Principal Components ; Factor Models ; C53: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / Econometric Modeling / Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods ; F13: International Economics / Trade / Trade Policy ; International Trade Organizations

Measuring global trade policy activity

Abstract

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