Economic research and trade policy analysis

En la segunda mitad de 2008 y los primeros meses de 2009 empezaron a aparecer señales claras de un marcado deterioro de la economía mundial, con la reducción de los flujos comerciales mundiales y la caída de la producción, primero en las economías desarrolladas y después en las economías en desarrollo. Aunque el comercio mundial aumentó un 2 por ciento en volumen a lo largo de 2008, en los seis últimos meses del año su crecimiento se frenó, quedando muy por debajo del 6 por ciento de aumento en volumen experimentado en 2007. La producción mundial medida en función del producto interno bruto (PIB) real también sufrió una notable desaceleración: disminuyó a un 1,7 por ciento en 2008, frente al 3,5 por ciento registrado un año antes.

In recent years there has been an intensification of the long-running debate on the effects of trade integration. This debate has focused largely on the impact of trade in advanced economies, which has risked diverting attention away from the impact of trade on people’s lives in developing countries, and especially the extreme poor. This volume brings together new research, using a range of different analytical approaches, that examines how the extreme poor have fared following trade liberalization in various developing countries and regions and the challenges that poor people face in benefitting from trade.

Trade multilateralism in the twenty-first century faces a serious test as weakness in the global economy and fast-paced technological changes create a challenging environment for world trade. This book examines how an updated and robust rules-based multilateral framework, anchored in the WTO, remains indispensable to maximizing the benefits of global economic integration and to reviving world trade. By examining recent accessions to the WTO, it reveals how the growing membership of the WTO has helped to support domestic reforms and to strengthen the rules-based framework of the WTO. It argues that the new realities of the twenty-first century require an upgrade to the architecture of the multilateral trading system. By erecting its ‘upper floors’ on the foundation of existing trade rules, the WTO can continue to adapt to a fast-changing environment and to maximize the benefits brought about by its ever-expanding membership.

All over the world, governments are actively and openly intervening in economies to boost innovation, generate new technologies, and foster cutting-edge industries. These interventions can have positive or negative impacts, especially in today’s hyper-connected global economy. On the one hand, they can expand knowledge, enhance productivity and spread the essential tools of global growth and development. But on the other hand, they can also distort trade, divert investment and benefit one economy at the expense of others. International cooperation and rules are needed more than ever to ensure that governments’ new focus on innovation and technology policies maximizes positive spill-overs and minimizes negative ones – and to ensure that a race for technological leadership does not morph into a struggle for technological dominance. The 2020 World Trade Report looks at the role of innovation and technology policies in an increasingly digitalized world economy, and explains the role of the WTO in this changing context.

Cette section vise à offrir quelques orientations sur l’évolution future de la structure du commerce des services. S’appuyant sur une approche originale, elle commence par exposer les tendances récentes en matière de coûts du commerce liés aux services et par recenser les facteurs qui influent sur ces coûts. Ensuite, les grandes tendances à venir en matière de technologie, de démographie, de revenu et de changement climatique sont examinées afin d’expliquer en quoi elles peuvent influer sur le choix des pays quant aux services qu’ils échangeront, avec qui ils les échangeront et de quelle manière. Enfin, l’impact potentiel de ces tendances sur le commerce des services est quantifié au moyen du Modèle du commerce mondial de l’OMC.

Removing trade barriers that impede women’s access to international markets can contribute to enhancing women’s participation in trade and benefits from trade. Women would benefit from lowered tariffs and nontariff barriers and improved trade facilitation and access to trade finance.

Thirty-three members have acceded to the WTO since it was established in 1995. In the majority of these accession negotiations, reforms to the agriculture sector have featured as a particularly sensitive issue for acceding governments. Why is this the case? What are the existing members’ expectations of acceding governments in relation to agriculture? And how have acceding governments fared through this process? While agriculture trade accounts for less than 10 per wto_cent of world merchandise trade, the agriculture sector, particularly for many developing countries, can be significant in terms of its contribution to both gross domestic product and employment.