Economic research and trade policy analysis
Trading with intelligence
Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming the way we live work produce and trade. As it further develops AI is expected to unlock unprecedented economic and societal opportunities. However it is also a source of significant risks and challenges. This report examines the intersection of AI and international trade. It discusses how AI may shape the future of international trade by reducing trade costs improving productivity and expanding economies' comparative advantages. The report reviews some key trade policy considerations in particular the urgent need to address the growing AI divide between economies and between large and small firms as well as data governance and intellectual property issues. It examines how to guarantee the trustworthiness of AI without hindering trade. The report also provides an overview of domestic regional and international government initiatives to promote and regulate AI and highlights the resulting risk of regulatory fragmentation. Finally the report discusses the critical role of the WTO in facilitating AI-related trade ensuring trustworthy AI and addressing emerging trade tensions noting that the rapid evolution of AI is prompting questions about the implications of AI for international trade rules.
Foreword
I am delighted to present the World Trade Organization Secretariat’s first comprehensive report on artificial intelligence (AI) and international trade. This report marks a milestone in our efforts to understand the impacts AI is having and will continue to have on global trade. As AI continues to evolve and transform the ways we work live and do business the global trade community must recognize these impacts and respond to maximize the gains for people businesses and economies and minimize potential risks.
Working together for better climate action
The report of the Joint Task Force on Climate Action Carbon Pricing and Policy Spillovers with participation by the IMF OECD UNCTAD World Bank and WTO makes four main contributions. First it reflects on a common understanding of carbon pricing metrics which inform on the incentives to decarbonize and on cross-country variation in carbon prices a key determinant of international spillover effects and competitiveness concerns. Second the report analyzes the appropriate mixes of climate change mitigation policies emphasizing the pivotal role of carbon pricing as the only policy implementing the polluter pays principle while generating revenues. Third it analyzes how international organizations can support the coordination of policies to maximize positive and limit negative cross-border spillovers from climate change mitigation policies. Finally it discusses how such coordination can help to scale up climate action by closing the transparency gap the implementation gap and the ambition gap.
Global Trade Outlook and Statistics
The WTO’s “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics” analyses recent global trade developments. Breakdowns of merchandise and commercial services trade by sector and region are provided together with details on leading traders. The report is timed to coincide with the release of the WTO’s latest quarterly and annual trade statistics which can be downloaded from the WTO’s online database at stats.wto.org.
Perspectivas del comercio mundial y estadísticas
En el informe Perspectivas del comercio mundial y estadísticas de la OMC se analizan los acontecimientos comerciales más recientes a nivel mundial. Además se proporcionan desgloses del comercio de mercancías y servicios comerciales porsectores y regiones junto con detalles sobre los principales interlocutores comerciales. La publicación del informe coincide con la divulgación de las últimas estadísticas comerciales trimestrales y anuales de la OMC que pueden descargarse de la base de datos en línea de la OMC en la dirección siguiente: stats.wto.org.
Perspectives du commerce mondial et statistiques
La publication « Perspectives et statistiques du commerce mondial » de l’OMC analyse l’évolution récente du commerce mondial. Elle contient des ventilations du commerce des marchandises et du commerce des services commerciaux par secteur et par région ainsi que des renseignements détaillés sur les principales économies commerçantes. La publication du rapport coïncide avec celle des dernières statistiques commerciales trimestrielles et annuelles de l’OMC qui peuvent être téléchargées à partir de la base de données en ligne de l’Organisation à l’adresse suivante : stats.wto.org.
World Trade Report 2024
Over the past 30 years the world has witnessed a period of unprecedented income convergence as the wide gap in income levels between economies has narrowed. Economic growth has improved living conditions and prospects for many people around the world. However not all individuals regions and economies have benefited equally from the changes brought about by more open trade. The World Trade Report 2024 explores the complex interlinkages between trade and inclusiveness across and within economies. Openness to international trade can drive economic growth but many low- and middle-income economies struggle to diversify or to integrate into world trade. Although trade supports numerous jobs and provides access to affordable goods and services some individuals can face challenges in adapting to new economic conditions following trade openness. However trade protectionism neither protects the overall economy nor promotes inclusiveness within economies. Diversifying global value chains reducing trade costs through digitalization and transitioning to a low-carbon economy can create new opportunities for low- and middle-income economies. Addressing remaining barriers to trade and investment facilitating the implementation of existing WTO agreements and ensuring that the WTO is fit for new challenges are crucial to support inclusiveness across and within economies. Furthermore trade policies need to be complemented by domestic measures such as labour education and competition policies so that the gains from trade can flow to workers and consumers and so that those individuals can move to benefit from those gains. WTO cooperation with other international organizations can magnify combined action on inclusiveness across and within economies.
Trade and income convergence
The past quarter of a century has witnessed an unprecedented level of income convergence accompanied by the integration of many developing economies into global markets. Despite this some economies have been left behind. This chapter discusses how the participation of developing economies in global trade and investment flows can accelerate structural transformation and enhance productivity growth thereby helping lowand middle-income economies to achieve the economic growth that ensures convergence with high-income economies. The chapter also examines why some economies have taken little advantage of globalization and focuses on barriers to maximizing the gains from trade participation such as trade costs and commodity dependence. Finally the chapter discusses how recent trends in the global economy are shaping future opportunities and challenges for developing economies to leverage trade and foreign direct investment for economic growth and which policies can help to achieve convergence in the upcoming decade.
Note
WTO members are frequently referred to as “countries” although some members are not countries in the usual sense of the word but are officially “customs territories”.
Conclusions
Over the past 30 years the world has witnessed a period of unprecedented income convergence accompanied by a steep reduction in poverty but inequality remains high.
Inclusive trade and international cooperation
This chapter discusses how the multilateral trading system has helped some economies to take advantage of trade to further their development but has not succeeded in helping others to harness trade for growth and considers what could be done to ensure that the WTO leaves no economy behind. It also examines the effect of the WTO on how the benefits of trade are shared out within economies and discusses how the WTO and trade can be made more inclusive for people and firms. Finally the chapter outlines the areas in which work at the WTO could be coordinated with work at other international organizations to help make trade more inclusive such as by enhancing infrastructure and digital connectivity to bridge the digital gap or by ensuring coherence between trade and environmental policies.
Acknowledgements
The World Trade Report 2024 was prepared under the general responsibility and guidance of Johanna Hill WTO Deputy Director-General and Ralph Ossa Director of the Economic Research and Statistics Division. Director-General Ngozi Okonjo Iweala Chief of Staff Bright Okogu and Trineesh Biswas from the Office of the Director-General provided valuable advice and guidance.