Economic research and trade policy analysis
Regulatory disciplines on the mobility of service professionals
Aug 2022
Working Paper
When it comes to services traded through the international movement of individuals (mode 4) Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) have increasingly adopted trade-facilitating disciplines that both build upon and innovate the GATS framework. By analysing relevant provisions of RTAs we are able to identify trends and commonalities in approach.
How will global trade patterns evolve in the long run?
Jan 2023
Working Paper
In this paper the evolution of global trade patterns until 2050 is projected with a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Feeding the model with exogenous projections on macroeconomic demographic sectoral and trade cost variables the evolution of trade patterns emerges endogenously from the model. The approach is innovative in both modelling approach and exogenous inputs. GDP growth emerges endogenously in the model because of diffusion of ideas as a result of international trade and trade cost changes are based on estimates of technology and trade policy changes.
Means of Liberalization and Beyond
Sept 2022
Working Paper
The scheduling approach constitutes a key element of services trade agreements as it is the means to pursue liberalization. This paper provides an overview of the scheduling approaches adopted in 187 trade agreements notified under GATS Article V as of 30 April 2022 analyses the differences between the positive and negative list approaches and discusses their implications for negotiation strategies and trade policies.
The Impact of Geopolitical Conflicts on Trade, Growth, and Innovation
Jul 2022
Working Paper
Geopolitical conflicts have increasingly been a driver of trade policy. We study the potential effects of global and persistent geopolitical conflicts on trade technological innovation and economic growth. In conventional trade models the welfare costs of such conflicts are modest. We build a multi-sector multi-region general equilibrium model with dynamic sector-specific knowledge diffusion which magnifies welfare losses of trade conflicts. Idea diffusion is mediated by the input-output structure of production such that both sector cost shares and import trade shares characterize the source distribution of ideas.
Comparing different approaches to tackle the challenges of global carbon pricing
Jul 2022
Working Paper
Climate change mitigation faces two main policy challenges: the need for global cooperation to tackle the collective action problem and the need to share the burden of global carbon pricing fair way following the principle of common but differentiated responsibility (CBRD). In this paper we explore the best ways to incentivize regions to reduce their CO2 emissions while minimizing the welfare losses for low-income countries using simulations with a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model.
The future of global value chains and the role of the WTO
Aug 2022
Working Paper
Disruptions to global value chains (GVCs) — caused by conflicts natural disasters and accidents that close transport routes — and that affect specific regions or sectors are not unusual. However in recent years and amid the Covid-19 pandemic they have become more frequent and severe. High profile sizeable and repeated disruptions raise pressing questions: Is the breakdown in many GVCs a temporary glitch or a permanent phenomenon? Have GVCs become endemically more accident prone and why? And if so are firms going to rely less on them? If a sustained withdrawal from GVCs occurs how will business models be reshaped and what will be the consequences for growth and inflation? How will the global trading system be affected? In short policymakers want to know what is the future of GVCs?
Applying import-adjustmed demand methodology to trade analysis during the COVID-19 crisis
Mar 2022
Working Paper
In this paper we estimated the standard (macro-economic) import equation over the period 1995-2021Q2 using an import intensity-adjusted measure of aggregate demand (IAD) calculated from input-output tables at country level and compared the results with regressions using GDP. Initially introduced by Bussière (2013) this "synthetic" concept of IAD was perfected inter alia by the IMF (2016) and by us (2017) with a view to explaining the "missing" trade flows unpredicted by GDP-based import models during the trade collapse of 2009 and subsequent recovery from it.
A Global Framework for Climate Mitigation Policies
Mar 2024
Working Paper
We explore a global carbon pricing framework to inform the potential coordination of carbon pricing and equivalent policies. The framework has three main features aligning with the current multilateral system for climate action. First the carbon price is determined by a global average carbon price to achieve emission reductions required to remain on a 1.5-2 degrees Celsius global warming trajectory.
Tariff spillovers and new rules for multilateral tariff negotiations
Feb 2024
Working Paper
Some countries have voiced unease about differences between their own tariff rates and those of major trading partners calling for more ”reciprocity”. These calls raise the question how large the negative spillover effects of countries’ tariffs on others have become over time.
The Trade Effects of a New Agreement on Services Domestic Regulation
Feb 2024
Working Paper
In this paper we project the impact of the implementation of a Joint Statement Initiative (JSI) on Services Domestic Regulation (SDR). We proceed in three steps. First we include the WTO SDR Index a binary score of SDR implementation in 23 sectors and 86 economies in a gravity equation estimated with the balance of payments services trade. We take into account domestic services trade to identify the impact of the importer-specific SDR Index by interacting the SDR Index with a border dummy following an established methodology in the gravity literature.