Economic research and trade policy analysis

Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming the way we live, work, produce and trade. As it further develops, AI is expected to unlock unprecedented economic and societal opportunities. However, it is also a source of significant risks and challenges. This report examines the intersection of AI and international trade. It discusses how AI may shape the future of international trade by reducing trade costs, improving productivity and expanding economies' comparative advantages. The report reviews some key trade policy considerations, in particular the urgent need to address the growing AI divide between economies and between large and small firms, as well as data governance and intellectual property issues. It examines how to guarantee the trustworthiness of AI without hindering trade. The report also provides an overview of domestic, regional and international government initiatives to promote and regulate AI, and highlights the resulting risk of regulatory fragmentation. Finally, the report discusses the critical role of the WTO in facilitating AI-related trade, ensuring trustworthy AI and addressing emerging trade tensions, noting that the rapid evolution of AI is prompting questions about the implications of AI for international trade rules.

The WTO’s “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics” presents the WTO Secretariat’s forecasts for world trade in 2025 and 2026. Breakdowns of merchandise and commercial services trade by sector and region are provided, together with details on leading traders. An analytical chapter discusses the economic effects of trade policy uncertainty. The report is timed to coincide with the release of the WTO’s latest quarterly and annual trade statistics, which can be downloaded from the WTO’s online database at stats.wto.org.

La publicación “Perspectivas del comercio mundial y estadísticas” de la OMC presenta las previsiones de la Secretaría de la OMC para el comercio mundial en 2025 y 2026. Se proporcionan desgloses del comercio de mercancías y servicios comerciales por sectores y regiones, así como información detallada sobre los principales interlocutores comerciales. En un capítulo analítico se examinan los efectos económicos de la incertidumbre en torno a la política comercial. La publicación del informe coincide con la divulgación de las últimas estadísticas comerciales trimestrales y anuales de la OMC, que se pueden descargar de la base de datos en línea de la OMC en stats.wto.org.

A remarkable feature of the recent wave of regional trade agreements (RTAs) is the inclusion of a trade in services component in many agreements. At the end of 2006, the WTO counted fifty-four such service accords, of which only five predate the conclusion of the Uruguay Round.2 The rising interest in service trade agreements reflects a number of developments. First, as tariffs have come down, policymakers have turned their attention to other barriers restricting international commerce. Second, the growth of world trade in goods and the emergence of international production networks have highlighted the importance of an efficient services infrastructure – whether in telecommunications, finance, logistics or legal advice. Market openings in services offer the prospect of performance improvements in services, and allow goods producers to draw on multinational service networks in organizing their business.

En el presente informe se han abordado cuatro cuestiones fundamentales relacionadas con el comercio de los recursos naturales. La primera es la forma en que las características económicas esenciales de los recursos naturales y el modo en que se comercia con ellos influyen en la estructura del comercio de este tipo de bienes. En segundo lugar, se ha examinado en qué medida la ausencia de obstáculos al comercio permite asegurar eficazmente el acceso a los recursos naturales y su viabilidad a largo plazo. La tercera cuestión guarda relación con los incentivos que tienen los gobiernos en la elaboración de su política comercial sobre los sectores de recursos naturales y las consecuencias de esa estructura de incentivos. Por último, en el informe se ha analizado cómo afecta la cooperación internacional a la gestión del comercio de recursos naturales, con especial atención a la función de la OMC.

Multiproduct firms are the dominant players in international production and trade (Bernard, Jensen, and Schott 2010; Goldberg et al. 2010a). Moreover, these firms are active in alternating their combination of product varieties. In fact, Bernard, Jensen, and Schott (2010) have documented a frequent change in the product mix in the United States (US), where almost 50% of multiproduct firms change their product mix every 5 years. Indeed, firms’ adjustment in product scope constitutes one important layer of firm heterogeneity (Nocke and Yeaple 2006).

The increasing importance of global supply chains challenges the way statistics on trade are collected. Statistics on international trade flows are measured in gross terms and, hence, record the value of intermediate inputs traded along the value chain multiple times. Trade in global supply chains can be measured using firm surveys, customs statistics that record trade flows under special schemes of tariff reduction or exemption, or the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) classifying goods as being intermediate or final. Because of several limitations associated with these methods, however, using input-output tables has become the preferred method for measuring trade in global supply chains. They are used to compute the value of imported inputs embodied in goods that are exported. A more complete measure of a country’s participation in global value chains combines foreign value-added in exports (upstream links) with exports that are incorporated in other products and re-exported (downstream links). Estimates of the ratio of valueadded exports to gross exports suggests that the double counting in gross trade flows, and hence international production sharing, has intensified in recent years, especially for fast growing countries undergoing structural transformation. Relying on national inputoutput tables, however, has its limitations. Combining it with bilateral trade data is difficult because there is no standard international classification, the level of sectoral aggregation is often different and their publication is infrequent. On-going efforts from the international statistics community to estimate trade in value-added go beyond the limitations of the input-output approach.

Global value chains (GVCs) have become a dominant feature of today’s global economy. This growing process of international fragmentation of production, driven by technological progress, cost, access to resources and markets and trade policy reforms has challenged our conventional wisdom on how we look at and interpret trade and, in particular, the policies that we develop around it. Indeed, traditional measures of trade that record gross flows of goods and services each and every time they cross borders, alone, may lead to misguided decisions being taken.

The global economy is going through unprecedented times. The COVID-19 pandemic has shaken the world, threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions of people in both developed and developing economies, with a particularly devastating impact on small businesses. World trade plummeted in the first half the year, and despite signs of trade bouncing back, WTO estimates in October 2020 still forecast a 9.2 per cent decline in the volume of world merchandise trade for 2020.

La présente section examine comment les nouvelles technologies transforment le commerce international, créant de nouvelles possibilités d’établir un système commercial plus inclusif et soulevant de nouveaux défis. Elle analyse d’abord l’influence des technologies numériques sur les coûts du commerce international. Puis elle examine comment ces technologies modifient ce qui est échangé, par qui et comment. Enfin, l’impact potentiel des grandes tendances de l’évolution technologique est quantifié, et des projections à long terme concernant le commerce international sont faites au moyen du Modèle du commerce mondial de l’OMC.

Over the last few decades, the internet has entered every corner of our lives, from social interactions to entertainment and work, and has fundamentally reshaped our economies, slashing the cost of acquiring and trading information. It has fuelled the digital revolution, fundamentally changing the ways in which we communicate, consume and produce, and it has profoundly transformed international trade, in terms of what we trade, how we trade, and who is trading.

En esta Sección se examinan los principales objetivos que alegaron los gobiernos para seguir concediendo subvenciones, entre otros, el desarrollo industrial, la innovación y la ayuda a las grandes empresas nacionales, la protección del medio ambiente y la redistribución. En la categoría general de “redistribución” se examinan tres objetivos más específicos: la utilización de subvenciones para fines de política regional, el apoyo a ramas de producción en decadencia para el ajuste y las obligaciones de servicio universal. Esta selección no pretende ser exhaustiva, pero comprende algunos de los objetivos más importantes que tratan de alcanzar los gobiernos de los países en desarrollo y desarrollados.

In recent decades, global and regional trade policies have helped less developed countries in pursuing comparative advantages in higher-productivity activities, and in exploiting these to drive development, raise income levels and give workers a better standard of living. Skills development has had, and continues to have, an important enabling role in this process.

The Global Value Chain Development Report 2021, the third in the series, draws on contributions from 25 background papers presented and discussed at the First Authors’ Workshop for the Global Value Chain Development Report 2021 during 8–9 October 2020. The drafts of the report’s six chapters were presented at the Chapter Authors’ Workshop for the Global Value Chain Development Report 2021 during 26–28 May 2021 (Appendix). The Asian Development Bank (ADB) organized both online workshops. The editors thank the authors of these papers and the chapters, and the discussants and participants at the two workshops, for their insightful comments and suggestions.

The aim of this chapter is to examine the broad framework which has been evolved for the reception of Aid for Trade (AFT) in Namibia. The economic situation before this period included the prevalence of poverty, the HIV/AIDS pandemic, low educational opportunities and a very highly skewed or unequal distribution of the wealth of the country, which has increased income inequalities and unsustainable economic growth, as outlined in Namibia Vision 2030 (Namibia, Office of the President, 2004). In this regard, Namibia shares this economic dependency at the regional level, and most trade and economic relationships are mainly with Botswana, Lesotho, Swaziland and South Africa, all of which are members of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) and Southern African Development Community (SADC). The objective is to create a free trade area in the Southern Africa region.

This Section discusses the main objectives governments claim to pursue with subsidies including industrial development, innovation and support for national champions, environment related objectives and redistribution. Under the broad category “redistribution”, three more specific objectives are examined: the use of subsidies for regional policy purposes, adjustment support for declining industries and universal service obligations. This selection does not pretend to be exhaustive but it covers some of the most important objectives pursued by governments in developing and developed countries.

La integración económica avanza en todo el mundo a un ritmo sin precedentes. La globalización ha reportado ingentes beneficios a muchos países y ciudadanos, pero algunos han salido perdiendo en el proceso y está creciendo, por muchas razones, la oposición a una mayor integración. El comercio es solamente un aspecto de la globalización y los nexos con los elementos económicos, políticos y tecnológicos más generales son múltiples y complejos. Algunos argumentos contrarios al comercio abierto son alimentados por distintos factores -incluido un temor general a los cambios- que poco tienen que ver con una mayor apertura del comercio. Los gobiernos que tratan de responder a las presiones contra el comercio basadas en los argumentos opuestos a la globalización corren el riesgo de equivocarse al decidir sus políticas. Sin duda, el escepticismo frente al comercio es motivo de preocupación, particularmente ahora que los Miembros de la OMC están tratando de culminar la Ronda de Doha. En este momento crucial, parece conveniente volver a considerar los argumentos en favor del comercio y preguntarnos si los argumentos tradicionales favorables al libre comercio siguen siendo válidos.

The aim of this chapter is to examine the broad framework which has been evolved for the reception of Aid for Trade (AFT) in Namibia. The economic situation before this period included the prevalence of poverty, the HIV/AIDS pandemic, low educational opportunities and a very highly skewed or unequal distribution of the wealth of the country, which has increased income inequalities and unsustainable economic growth, as outlined in Namibia Vision 2030 (Namibia, Office of the President, 2004). In this regard, Namibia shares this economic dependency at the regional level, and most trade and economic relationships are mainly with Botswana, Lesotho, Swaziland and South Africa, all of which are members of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) and Southern African Development Community (SADC). The objective is to create a free trade area in the Southern Africa region.

This chapter explores the development of regionalism from a historical perspective, with a view to understanding how the world ended up with some 350 regional trade agreements (RTAs) (so far) of varying degrees of coverage, complexity and efficacy. Understanding the history of regionalism may shed light on how to multilateralize it; and an understanding of the factors that led nations to conclude trade agreements outside the multilateral trading system may help to identify some lessons for dealing with the increasing proliferation of RTAs.

Geography is unkind. This could be a result of historical accident, wars or colonial boundaries but the results are the same. The classical definition of the factors of production is land, labour and capital. It is a fact of life that some countries have a limited supply of all three.

The World Trade Report 2006 was prepared under the general direction of Deputy Director-General Alejandro Jara. Patrick Low, Director of the Economic Research and Statistics Division, led the team responsible for writing the Report. The principal authors of the Report were Marc Bacchetta, Bijit Bora, K. Michael Finger, Marion Jansen, Alexander Keck, Clarisse Morgan, Roberta Piermartini and Robert Teh. Trade statistics information was provided by the Statistics Group of the Economic Research and Statistics Division, coordinated by Guy Karsenty, Julia de Verteuil, Andreas Maurer and Jürgen Richtering.