Economic research and trade policy analysis
Remerciements
Les auteurs tiennent à remercier tous ceux qui ont communiqué des données y compris les notifications figurant dans le sujet spécial, principalement les administrations nationales et les délégations auprès de l’OMC. Dans certains cas, les données ont été fournies sur les sites Web nationaux ou par l’intermédiaire d’organisations régionales. Vu le grand nombre de données statistiques et de métadonnées qu’il fallait traiter, et comme celles ci n’étaient pas disponibles au sein d’une seule organisation, cette publication n’a été possible que grâce aux efforts conjoints de l’OMC, de l’ITC et de la CNUCED. Les trois organisations possèdent chacune une expérience reconnue et des avantages comparatifs dans le domaine de l’analyse tarifaire.
Agradecimientos / Descargo de responsabilidad
La presente publicación es fruto del esfuerzo conjunto del Banco Mundial y de la OMC. Fue escrita y coordinada por Martin Roy de la OMC y Pierre Sauvé del Banco Mundial, bajo la supervisión de la Directora General Adjunta Anabel González y Xiaolin Chai, Directora de la División de Comercio de Servicios e Inversión, en la OMC, y Mona Haddad, Directora Mundial de Comercio, Inversión y Competitividad, y Sebastien Dessus, Gerente de Prácticas, Comercio e Integración Regional, en el Banco Mundial. La publicación fue editada por Ross McRae y Anthony Martin, de la OMC.
Résumé analytique
La présente publication conjointe de la Banque mondiale et de l'OMC repose sur une vision partagée selon laquelle les changements structurels associés à une économie mondiale plus centrée sur les services et sur la contribution essentielle que l'expansion du commerce et de l'investissement dans ce secteur peuvent apporter à la croissance économique et au développement justifient qu'une plus grande attention soit portée aux politiques et que la coopération internationale soit redynamisée. Un objectif important de cette publication et une raison essentielle de son caractère conjoint sont de rappeler les avantages qu'il y a à faire progresser l'ordre du jour des négociations sur le commerce des services et les coûts d'opportunité qui en résulteraient en cas d'inaction. Il s'agit donc de stimuler la réflexion sur les meilleurs moyens de mobiliser un soutien supplémentaire – et une aide de meilleure qualité – qui permettent aux économies en développement et aux économies les moins avancées de mettre en oeuvre des réformes du secteur des services, afin de tirer aussi parti de l'expansion du commerce et de l'investissement dans ce secteur pour favoriser leur développement.
Conclusion
La composition du commerce mondial des services a profondément changé au cours des dernières années, période pendant laquelle les économies en développement ont enregistré des gains importants à l'exportation, malgré l'impact sévère de la pandémie de COVID-19. Ces gains concernent une multitude de services non traditionnels à forte valeur ajoutée, qui sont plus faciles à fournir aujourd'hui grâce aux moyens numériques.
Conclusión
La composición del comercio mundial de servicios ha cambiado notablemente en los últimos años, y se ha observado que en ese período las economías en desarrollo registraron un importante aumento de las exportaciones en el sector de los servicios, a pesar de los graves efectos de la pandemia de COVID-19. Ese aumento abarca un conjunto de servicios no tradicionales de alto valor añadido, que pueden prestarse hoy en día más fácilmente a través de medios digitales.
Remerciements / Avertissement
La présente publication est le fruit d'une collaboration entre la Banque mondiale et l'OMC. Elle a été corédigée et coordonnée par Martin Roy, de l'OMC, et Pierre Sauvé, de la Banque mondiale, sous la supervision de la Directrice générale adjointe Anabel Gonzalez et de Xiaolin Chai, Directrice de la Division du commerce des services et de l'investissement, de l'OMC, ainsi que de Mona Haddad, Directrice mondiale pour le commerce, l'investissement et la compétitivité et de Sébastien Dessus, Responsable Pratique, commerce et intégration régionale, de la Banque mondiale. Le texte a été mis au point par Ross McRae et Anthony Martin, de l'OMC.
Resumen
Esta publicación conjunta del Banco Mundial y la OMC está motivada por la opinión compartida de que es necesario prestar mayor atención a las políticas y renovar la cooperación internacional en vista de los cambios estructurales relacionados con una economía mundial más centrada en los servicios, y la contribución fundamental que el aumento del comercio y la inversión en el sector de los servicios puede hacer al crecimiento económico y el desarrollo. Un objetivo importante de la publicación, y una razón fundamental de su naturaleza conjunta, es recordar los beneficios de hacer avanzar el programa de negociación sobre el comercio de servicios, y los costos de oportunidad de no hacerlo. En consecuencia, la publicación tiene por objeto fomentar la reflexión sobre la mejor manera de movilizar ayuda adicional —y mejor asistencia— para que las economías en desarrollo y las menos adelantadas apliquen las reformas del sector de los servicios y obtengan los beneficios para el desarrollo derivados de la expansión del comercio y la inversión en servicios.
The reshaping of global trade
This chapter shows that, despite difficulties in the global trade policy landscape, global trade flows have been resilient and continue to evolve in a direction that is more sustainable and inclusive. Narratives surrounding the benefits of globalization have turned more sceptical in the past decade. These narratives have started to reflect in global trade as the first policy-driven fractures appear in the system. Yet, the digital revolution continues to promote economic integration by facilitating trade in goods and, even more so, in services. There is still significant potential for trade to contribute further to the growth of the world economy, and to bring further benefits to developing economies via the expansion of global value chains. However, if the untapped potential of new trade flows is to be accessed, policies must remain outward-looking.
Executive summary
The multilateral trading system overseen by the World Trade Organization was created just over 75 years ago based on the vision that fostering interdependence among economies would play a crucial role in achieving peace and prosperity. This vision had emerged as a central lesson from three disastrous decades of deglobalization, marked by two world wars, the Great Depression, and political extremism. For three-quarters of a century it has guided policymakers as they laid the foundations for the integrated world we inhabit today.
Re-globalization to reduce poverty and inequality
This chapter discusses how fragmentation could have a negative impact on growth, poverty and inequality, and how re-globalization could help to ensure that the gains from trade are spread more broadly both between and within economies. Opening up trade in agriculture and services and developing new e-commerce rules could boost growth, reduce poverty and make the global economy more inclusive. The WTO can help to facilitate a more inclusive global trading system by updating trade rules at the multilateral level and by working with other international organizations to ensure more people benefit from world trade.
Re-globalization to promote environmental sustainability
This chapter examines the complex interplay between trade and environmental sustainability. It evaluates the potential risks associated with a fragmented approach to climate change and other environmental challenges, and it explores the benefits of re-globalization – or greater international cooperation – for sustainability in the context of various types of environmental policies and their cross-border effects. The chapter also emphasizes the critical importance of multilateral cooperation in enabling effective environmental protection while fostering equitable global growth.
Foreword by the WTO Director-General
The post-1945 international economic order was built on the idea that interdependence among nations through increased trade and economic ties would foster peace and shared prosperity. For most of the past 75 years, this idea guided policymakers, and helped lay the foundation for an unprecedented era of growth, higher living standards and poverty reduction. Today this vision is under threat, as is the future of an open and predictable global economy.
The impact of security concerns on trade
A series of crises over the past years has changed the perceptions about trade and interdependence. What used to be considered as critical to economic progress and security is now sometimes perceived as a source of risk that needs to be limited. Moreover, security concerns are no longer exclusively expressed in relation to conflict but encompass the much wider notion of economic security. As a result, security concerns percolate through trade policy more widely. This chapter highlights that despite disruptions in global supply chains, trade remains a source of security, especially when embedded in a multilateral rules-based system. It argues that fragmentation would weaken security and increase the likelihood of conflict, while re-globalization is a more promising avenue to strengthen security going forward.
Introduction
The ideas that shaped today’s globalized world were a response to the disastrous deglobalized world of the first half of the 20th century. Having seen how a closed and divided world economy contributed to economic depression, conflict and ultimately the Second World War, the post-war architects resolved to build an open and integrated world economy instead. Freer trade would deliver shared growth and development. Economic interdependence would give countries a stake in each other’s success. International rules and institutions would promote stability, trust and collaboration. The antidote to zero-sum economic nationalism was positivesum global economic cooperation.
Conclusion
For almost seven decades now, economies around the world have been opening their markets to each other, recognizing that interdependence and cooperation create shared prosperity. However, severe challenges, such as the financial crisis of 2008-09, the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, now threaten to undermine this vision, highlighting a number of risks inherent in a globalized world. As a result, some have begun to question the benefits of globalization. The implication of this way of thinking is a more fragmented, less integrated world. Fortunately, this has not happened yet. There is still time to act, but, as this report shows, the changing narrative on globalization has already translated into heightened tensions and first signs of geoeconomic fragmentation in trade.
Acknowledgements and Disclaimer
The World Trade Report 2023 was prepared under the general responsibility and guidance of Anabel González, WTO Deputy Director-General, and Ralph Ossa, Director of the Economic Research and Statistics Division. Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Chief of Staff Bright Okogu, and Trineesh Biswas from the Office of the Director-General provided valuable advice and guidance. The report was coordinated by Alexander Keck and Victor Stolzenburg.