Economic research and trade policy analysis
Gender-specific differences in geographical mobility
The gains from trade depend on the reallocation of resources, including labour, across firms and sectors. However, workers are unlikely to be fully mobile since there are barriers to sectoral and geographical mobility due to social reasons such as family or existing private and professional networks. If these barriers depend on specific characteristics of workers, such as education, gender or race, this has important implications for inequality.
Intellectual Property and Digital Trade Mapping International Regulatory Responses to Emerging Issues
This paper explores how regulatory responses to emerging IP issues in digital trade may develop at the international level and in particular how existing mechanisms might influence the chances of developing internationally agreed rules in this regard. The primacy of state sovereignty in intellectual property up to the late 19th century gave way to the important WIPO treaties, which still retained some independence of member states and based international regulatory responses directly on national experience. While more regulatory sovereignty was ceded in TRIPS, the WIPO Copyright Treaty and the WIPO Performances and Phonograms Treaty, the adoption of non-binding instruments (such as the WIPO Joint Recommendations in the area of trademarks) show the limits of decision making by consensus.
International Trade in Natural Resources
Natural resources account for 20% of world trade, and dominate the exports of many countries. Policy is used to manipulate both international and domestic prices of resources, yet this policy is largely outside the disciplines of the WTO. The instruments used include export taxes, price controls, production quotas, and domestic producer and consumer taxes (equivalent to trade taxes if no domestic production is possible). We review the literature, and argue that the policy equilibrium is inefficient. This inefficiency is exacerbated by market failure in long run contracts for exploration and development of natural resources. Properly coordinated policy reforms offer an avenue to resource exporting and importing countries to overcome these inefficiencies and obtain mutual gains.
E-commerce, Trade and the COVID-19 Pandemic
The WTO Secretariat has published a new information note looking at how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected e-commerce, including the implications for cross-border trade. It notes the increased use of e-commerce as consumers adapt to lockdowns and social distancing measures and draws attention to several challenges, such as the need to bridge the digital divide within and across countries.
A Multilateral Agreement on Investment
Much has been recently written about the Multilateral Agreement on Investment (MAI) that has been negotiated by OECD countries. Perhaps even more has been said by the critics of those who would like to see an agreement of this kind extended among other countries. There has indeed been a great deal of "toing" and "froing" about the desirability of MAI and even misunderstandings about its merits. The principal question of this paper is whether there is any need for MAI. There are arguments in favour and against and this paper provides a short review. On balance, the positive aspects of a multilateral agreement should outweigh the negative ones. The novelty of the paper is the attempt to address the critical voices. Given the lukewarm reaction in some countries, it would seem sensible to pay more attention to these arguments – a feature that may only now become something of pressing need in the light of the difficulties encountered in the OECD negotiations.
Letting the Sun Shine in at the WTO
Without transparency, trade agreements are just words on paper. Transparency as disclosure allows economic actors and trading partners to see how rules are implanted; transparency in decision-making ensures fairness and peer review. In the first section of this paper, I discuss the logic of transparency in general and the motivation for its use in the trading system. Considerable information on WTO transparency mechanisms is available in the Minutes and annual reports of the various WTO bodies, and in the Director-General’s annual overview of the trading system, but comparative analysis is not easy. In the second section, therefore, I develop a framework in which different transparency mechanisms can be compared to each other using the metaphor of three generations in the evolution of transparency in the trading system as a means of explaining how transparency works in the WTO. For sunshine to work, at least two things must happen. Information must be made available, and Members have to use it. Probing the extent to which Members comply with their notification obligations, in the third section, and their efforts to improve the notification process, allow an assessment of their commitment to being transparent. In the fourth section I consider how WTO committees are used to ensure that Members are accountable for their commitments, including to notify. Since the committees differ, I use the metaphor of the great pyramid of the legal order to compare committees to each other. Assessment of whether these mechanisms work underpins observations in the conclusion on whether more sunshine is needed, and efforts underway to improve existing mechanisms.
Trade Skirmishes and Safeguards
I propose a framework within which to interpret and evaluate the major reforms introduced to the GATT system in its transition to the WTO. In particular, I examine the WTO Agreement on Safeguards that has replaced the GATT escape clause (Article XIX), and the Dispute Settlement Process (DSP) that resembles a court of law under the WTO. Using this framework, I interpret the weakening of the reciprocity principle under the Agreement on Safeguards as an attempt to reduce efficiency-reducing trade skirmishes. The DSP is interpreted as an impartial arbitrator that announces its opinion about the state of the world when a dispute arises among member countries. I demonstrate that the reforms in the GATT escape clause should be bundled with the introduction of the DSP, in order to maintain the incentive-compatibility of trade agreements. The model implies that trade agreements under the WTO lead to fewer trade skirmishes but this effect does not necessarily result in higher payoffs to the governments. The model also implies that the introduction of the WTO court, which has no enforcement power, can in fact improve the self-enforceability of trade agreements.
Addressing Tensions and Avoiding Disputes
Most specific trade concerns (STCs), which are raised before the WTO Committee on Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT Committee), disappear from the TBT Committee’s meeting agendas without escalating into formal disputes. At the same time, a relatively small number of TBT-related disputes have been subject to the WTO dispute settlement procedures. By examining the practice of raising STCs and the relationship between STCs and disputes, the paper emphasises the role of STCs as a trade tension resolution mechanism.
The Contribution of Services Trade Policies to Connectivity in the Context of Aid for Trade
This paper examines how services trade and policies contribute to connectivity. It highlights the economic relevance of services and identifies some key channels through which trade in services contributes to physical and digital connectivity. The paper examines the impact of services trade policies on connectivity in view of recent research showing their impact on sectoral performance, economic welfare and development. Finally, it discusses the positive contribution that aid for trade can make in support of services policies.
The New Liberalism
In the last ten years, there has been a sea change in trade and related policies in emerging markets. This results from autonomous reforms undertaken in conjunction with macroeconomic stabilization programmes. Many non-tariff measures have been eliminated and tariffs, now the principal trade instrument, have been rationalized and reduced. Considerable increases in security of market access result from increased membership of the GATT/WTO system, which itself underwent important changes as a result of the Uruguay Round, further developed in the first Ministerial Meeting of the WTO in Singapore in December 1996. The systemic changes and the expansion of WTO membership to the transition and other economies mark a dramatic change in international economic relations.
Covid-19 vaccine production and tariffs on vaccine inputs
Over 180 representatives from 111 members and observers participated on 12 October in a virtual information session on the WTO Secretariat’s work to support equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines.
Illicit Trade and Infectious Diseases
We collect a novel dataset that covers about 130 countries and the six four-digit live animal categories in the Harmonized System (HS) over a sixteen-year period, to study the link between illicit trade in live animals and threat to animal health from infectious diseases.
Determining "Likeness" under the GATS
The concept of "like services and service suppliers" used in the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) is still very much uncharted territory. The few dispute cases involving national treatment and most-favoured-nation treatment claims under the GATS are vague concerning the criteria which should be used to establish "likeness". Discussions among WTO Members on this subject have remained limited and inconclusive. Perhaps the only point on which everybody agrees is that a determination of "likeness" under the GATS gives rise to a wider range of questions – and uncertainties – than under the GATT. The intangibility of services, the difficulty to draw a line between product and production, the existence of four modes of supply, the combined reference to like services and like service suppliers, and the lack of a detailed nomenclature are some of the factors which complicate the task of establishing "likeness" in services trade. This contribution focuses on the concept of “likeness” in the context of the national treatment obligation (Article XVII of the GATS). It discusses the possible implications of the combined reference to “like services and service suppliers”, as well as the relevance and role of the modes of supply in determining “likeness”. It also examines whether the criteria developed by GATT case-law (physical properties, classification, end-use and consumer tastes) can be mechanically transposed to services trade and how far they may contribute to establishing “likeness” under the GATS. It then discusses whether other parameters, such as the regulatory context or an “aim and effect” type approach could be relevant.
Liberalization of Air Transport Services and Passenger Traffic
Using a gravity-type model to explain bilateral passenger traffic, this paper estimates the impact of liberalizing air transport services on air passenger flows for a sample of 184 countries. We find evidence of a positive and significant relationship between the volumes of traffic and the degree of liberalization of the aviation market. An increase in the degree of liberalization from the 25th percentile to the 75th percentile increases traffic volumes between countries linked by a direct air service by approximately 30 per cent. In particular, the removal of restrictions on the determination of prices and capacity, cabotage rights and the possibility for airlines other than the flag carrier of the foreign country to operate a service are found to be the most traffic-enhancing provisions of air service agreements. The results are robust to the use of different measures of the degree of liberalization as well as the use of different estimation techniques.
Future Resilience to Diseases of Animal Origin
The WTO Secretariat has published a new information note about trade issues associated with the spread of diseases of animal origin. The note maps out the international framework in place to address these issues, along with ongoing efforts to ensure safe trade in animals and animal products, including in wildlife.
Export Policies and the General Agreement on Trade in Services
Compared to its counterpart in merchandise trade, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) of 1947, the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) contains a variety of conceptual innovations. In addition to cross-border supply, the Agreement covers three additional types of transactions, i.e. the supply of services via consumer movements abroad as well as the presence of foreign firms and foreign service professionals in the respective markets. At the same time, the GATS accommodates a range of measures, including the use of quantitative restrictions and discriminatory taxes or subsidies, which are clearly constrained under the GATT. The Agreement offers particularly broad scope for various types of export-related interventions, regardless of ensuing market distortions. The social and economic relevance of such measures is immediately evident. This paper seeks to provide an overview and assessment in the light of relevant GATS provisions and WTO dispute rulings.
Potential Economic Effects of a Global Trade Conflict
The WTO Global Trade Model is employed to project the medium-run economic effects of a global trade conflict. The trade conflict scenario is based on recent estimates in the literature of the difference between cooperative and non-cooperative tariffs.
The Impact of Basel III on Trade Finance
Trade finance, particularly in the form of short-term, self-liquidating letters of credit and the like, has received relatively favourable treatment regarding capital adequacy and liquidity under Basel III, the new international prudential framework. However, concerns have been expressed over the potential” unintended consequences” of applying the newly created leverage ratio to these instruments, notably for developing countries’ trade. This paper offers a relatively simple model approach showing the conditions under which the initially proposed 100% leverage tax on non-leveraged activities such as letters of credit would reduce their natural attractiveness relative to higher-risk, less collateralized assets, which may stand in the balance sheet of banks. Under these conditions, the model shows that leverage ratio may nullify in part the effect of the low capital ratio that is commensurate to the low risk of such instruments. The decision by the Basel committee on 12 January 2014 to reduce the leverage ratio seems to be justified by the analytical framework developed in this paper.
The Treatment of Medical Products in Regional Trade Agreements
The WTO Secretariat has published a new report on the treatment of medical products in regional trade agreements (RTAs) amid current supply shortages caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The report examines the extent medical products are traded among preferential partners and the difference in liberalization rates within and outside these trade agreements.
Trade, Testing and Toasters
Even if traders adapt to technical regulations and standards in an export market, they still must prove compliance by undergoing conformity assessment procedures (CAPs), such as testing, inspection, or certification. Duplication, delays or discrimination in CAPs can significantly increase trade costs, and this risk is reflected in the growing importance of CAPs in WTO discussions and bilateral and regional free trade agreements. This paper conducts an empirical study of the trade issues that WTO Members encounter with CAPs as described in specific trade concerns (STCs) raised in the WTO Committee on Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) during 2010-2014. We observe that CAPs raise proportionally more concern among WTO Members than technical regulations do, and that testing and certification are the procedures that most frequently give rise to trade problems. Within the framework of the TBT Agreement, we find that questions around transparency and whether CAPs create unnecessary barriers to trade are the two most prominent issues highlighted by Members.
Provisions on Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Regional Trade Agreements
This paper reviews the different types of provisions explicitly addressing small and medium enterprises (SMEs), including micro firms (MSMEs), in regional trade agreements (RTAs). The analysis covers the 270 RTAs currently in force and notified to the WTO as of April 2016. The analysis shows that half of all the notified RTAs, namely 136 agreements, incorporate at least one provision mentioning explicitly SMEs. These SMEs-related provisions are highly heterogeneous and differ in terms of location in the RTA, language, scope and commitments. Many of the SMEs related provisions are only found in a single or couple of RTAs. A limited but increasing number of RTAs incorporate specific provisions in dedicated articles or even chapters on SMEs. Although the number of detailed SMEs-related provisions included in a given RTA has tended to increase in recent years, most SMEs-related provisions remain couched in best endeavour language. The two most common categories of SMEs-related provisions found in RTAs are provisions (1) promoting cooperation on SMEs and (2) specifying that SMEs and/or programs supporting SMEs are not covered by the RTAs' obligations provisions. Other types of SMEs-related provisions, incorporated in a limited number of RTAs, refer, inter alia, to government procurement, trade facilitation, electronic commerce, intellectual property, or transparency.
Patent-Related Actions taken in WTO Members in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic
COVID-19, caused by SARS-Cov-2, was declared to be a pandemic by the World Health Organization on 11 March 2020. Since then, the issue of the relationship between patent protection and the development of and access to medical treatments and technologies – a longstanding and enduringly important public policy issue – has become central to the debate on the linkages between IP, innovation, access, and public health between stakeholders with divergent interests.
The Falling Elasticity of Global Trade to Economic Activity
Since the recovery from the great financial crisis in 2010, global real trade flows grew much slower than pre-crisis, in both absolute terms (growth rates) and relative terms (relative to GDP, from 2:1 in the great 1990's to 1:1 since 2012) A debate has arisen as to whether this global trade slowdown, and related falling trade-to-income elasticity, was structural or cyclical.
Trade in Medical Goods in the Context of Tackling COVID-19
The WTO Secretariat has published an update of the information note on trade in medical goods in the context of tackling COVID-19 which was first issued on 3 April. The update looks at developments that took place in the first half of 2020.
The Impact of Mode 4 on Trade in Goods and Services
This paper estimates the impact of liberalization of temporary movements of individual service suppliers on trade in goods and services. In particular, the paper looks at the impact of the so-called forth mode to provide a service on trade in services under the other three modes: cross-border service supply (Mode 1), consumption abroad (Mode 2) and commercial presence abroad (Mode 3). Estimates are obtained using a gravity model of trade augmented for a measure of temporary movements of service suppliers. Estimates of the size of a country’s Mode 4 trade in services are based on specific information regarding the number of temporary foreign workers occupied in the service sector and their estimated average earnings, thus overcoming the limitations of traditional measures of Mode 4 based on remittances or compensation for employees. We find a positive and significant effect of temporary movements of service providers on merchandise trade and services trade under Mode 1 and 3. No significant relationship is found between services trade under Mode 2 and Mode 4.
Bilateralism in Services Trade
In most of the current literature, the spread of regionalism in international trade relations is iscussed in terms of a rapidly rising number of preferential trade agreements (PTAs). Far less attention is given to the even more rapid proliferation of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) and their overlap with obligations assumed by WTO Members under the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). About 60 per cent of world foreign investment stocks are in services and, thus, covered by mode 3 (commercial presence) of the GATS. A closer look reveals that BITs generally apply across a far wider range of sectors, in particular in the case of LDCs and developing countries, than those scheduled under the GATS. Furthermore, a number of obligations enshrined in BITs go beyond their potential counterparts under the GATS. At the same time, since most WTO Members have not listed relevant exemptions from the Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN) clause of the Agreement, their BIT obligations are to be applied on an MFN basis. While this extension may not cause problems in many cases, given generally liberal investment regimes and the focus of most treaties on protecting rather than liberalizing access, inconsistencies remain between the two frameworks. Based on an assessment of relevant provisions, this article discusses options on how WTO Members could proceed.
Export Quality in Advanced and Developing Economies
This paper develops new estimates of export quality, far more extensive than previous efforts, covering 178 countries and hundreds of products during the period 1962—2010. It finds that quality upgrading is particularly rapid during the early stages of development, with the process largely completed as a country reaches upper middle-income status. There is significant cross-country heterogeneity in the growth rate of quality. Within any given product line, quality converges over time to the world frontier. Institutional quality, liberal trade policies, FDI inflows, and human capital all promote quality upgrading, although their impact varies across sectors. The results suggest that reducing barriers to entry into new sectors can allow economies to benefit from rapid quality convergence over time.
How Does the Regular Work of WTO Influence Regional Trade Agreements?
This paper illustrates how the work of the WTO's standing committees is fuelling regulatory cooperation between WTO members, and inspiring RTA negotiators.
WTO Trade Monitoring Ten Years on Lessons Learned and Challenges Ahead
A decade has passed since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008. Less than a month after the collapse of the investment bank Lehman Brothers, an internal Secretariat Task Force was established by the WTO Director-General to monitor the trade related developments associated with the global financial crisis.
TBT and Trade Facilitation Agreements
The average international trade transaction is subject to numerous procedural and documentation requirements, which add to the costs of doing business as an importer or exporter and also use up scarce government resources. While these requirements can be necessary to fulfil policy objectives, questions are often raised about why and how they are implemented. The Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA), adopted by WTO Members in 2014, seeks to expedite the movement, release and clearance of goods across borders and reduce these trade transaction costs - by an average of 14.3 per cent as estimated by the 2015 World Trade Report. At the same time, many WTO Agreements already contain provisions aimed at facilitating trade procedures and avoiding unnecessary costs. The Agreement on Technical Barriers to Trade (the TBT Agreement) is one of these: its provisions on transparency and conformity assessment procedures, some of which are applied at the border, are of particular relevance in this context. The TFA and TBT Agreements are in fact complementary, with the TFA introducing some new requirements/recommendations, which are likely to apply to certain TBT measures. This paper maps out the linkages between these two Agreements. It does so with a view to informing TBT officials of the requirements and best practices emerging in the trade facilitation area as well as raising awareness amongst trade/customs officials of existing rules and evolving practices in the TBT area. The 2015 World Trade Report refers to “border agency cooperation” as the main TFA implementation challenge identified by developing countries and also points to the importance of cooperation and coordination between ministries as one of the main success factors. Considering that a significant share of import/export procedures and controls arise from the implementation of TBT measures, a better understanding of the linkages between the TFA and the TBT Agreement (as well as other relevant WTO Agreements such as the SPS Agreement) will be crucial for effective implementation. It will also contribute to more streamlined technical assistance activities and raise awareness among TBT officials of the opportunities generated by trade facilitation projects. The procedures and practices of the WTO TBT Committee, especially with regards to transparency and specific trade concerns, could also be of interest to the future TFA Committee, as it embarks on its task of furthering the implementation of the TFA. All these in turn will help reap the expected benefits of the new Trade Facilitation Agreement.
SPS Measures and Trade
In an attempt to disentangle the impact of sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures on trade patterns, we estimate a Heckman selection model on the HS4 disaggregated level of trade. Using SPS measures obtained from the SPS Information Management System of the WTO and controlling for zero trade flows, we find that SPS concerns reduce the probability of trade in agricultural and food products consistently. However, the amount of trade is positively affected by SPS measures conditional on market entry. This suggests that SPS measures constitute an effective market entry barrier. Additionally, we split SPS measures into requirements related to (i) conformity assessment, and (ii) product characteristics. Both types of measures are implemented by policy makers to achieve a desired level of health safety, yet, entail diverse trade costs. We find that conformity assessment measures hamper not only the likelihood to trade but also the amount of trade, while measures related to product characteristics do not affect the market entry decision, but have a strong positive impact on the trade volume. This suggests that trade outcomes crucially depend on the measure policy makers decide to implement.
Making (Small) Firms Happy
This paper considers the asymmetric effect of Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) policies on heterogeneous exporters, based on matching a detailed panel of French firm exports to a new database of Trade Facilitation Indicators (TFIs) released recently by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). We analyze the effect of these TFIs on three trade-related outcomes: (i) exported value (firm intensive margin), (ii) number of products exported (product extensive margin) and (iii) average export value per product exported (product intensive margin). We find strong evidence of a heterogeneous effect of trade facilitation across firm size. While better information availability, advance ruling and appeal procedures mainly benefit small firms, the simplification of documents and automation tend to favor large firms’ trade. This is coherent with the idea that while some elements of the TFA simply reduce the fixed cost of exporting (favoring small firms in particular), other chapters in the TFA reduce the scope for corruption at borders, making large firms less reluctant to serve corrupt countries.
Globalization and Trade Flows
The trade collapse that followed the recent financial crisis has led to a renewed interest on the measurement issues affecting international merchandise trade statistics in the new globalized economy. The international fragmentation of industrial production blurs the concept of country of origin and calls for the production of new statistics on the domestic content of exports, with a view of estimating trade in value added. Alongside, the international statistical community has revised in 2010 the concepts and definitions on both, international merchandise trade and trade in services statistics. This paper discusses the various issues related to the concepts of "goods for processing" and "intra firm trade" in trade statistics, and provides an overview of the method of analysing the impact of the fragmentation of production in international value chains.
An Economic Analysis of the US-China Trade Conflict
This paper provides an economic analysis of the trade conflict between the US and China, providing an overview of the tariff increases, a discussion of the background of the trade conflict, and an analysis of the economic effects of the trade conflict, based both on empirics (ex post analysis) and on simulations (ex ante analysis).
Implementing the Trade Facilitation Agreement
After a decade of negotiations and additional preparatory work, the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) is poised to enter into force. It promises to streamline and substantially prune the red tape that all too often slows and impedes international commerce - thereby significantly reducing both cost and time needed to do business across borders. The paper chronicles the path from the conclusion of the talks at the 2013 Bali Ministerial Conference to the present day as we prepare for the Agreement to take effect. It reviews the state of the ratification process, analyses implementation schedules and outlines work still to be done. The study shows that the emerging application of the TFA, like its negotiation, has once again confounded the sceptics – who first doubted that a TF Agreement would see the light of day and then questioned if it would ever be put into practice. While plenty remains to be done to implement the TFA across the full WTO membership, its entry into force is set to happen – a valedictory moment.
Least-Developed Countries’ Trade During the “Super-Cycle” and the Great Trade Collapse
LDCs' trade patterns changed in the past decade, thanks to the rebalancing of global demand towards large emerging countries and the resulting cycle of high international commodity prices. This process led to a wider geographical diversification of LDCs' exports but contributed also to a greater reliance on those highly priced commodities. Notwithstanding some progress in market and product diversification — including services — LDCs remain particularly vulnerable to external shocks. With the exception of 2006-2008, the LDCs as a group have systematically recorded a trade deficit. The 2008-2009 global crisis and the bumpy recovery which followed illustrate the volatility of the recent trends. In such a perspective, renewed efforts towards extensive product diversification are called for. Fostering diversification has been supported for many years by preferential market access to developed countries; more recently, emerging countries have also been granting such preferences to LDCs products. Preferential market access remains relevant, but is not sufficient to improve the supply-side capabilities. The new business model related to global value chains (GVC) offers new opportunities to LDCs for export diversification. But GVC participation cannot materialize without a proper trade environment. Some of the main obstacles for joining GVCs are the high transaction costs in importing the necessary inputs and exporting the processed goods. Active trade facilitation programmes, such as those identified during the Fourth Global Review of Aid for Trade in July 2013 offer new options to LDCs for joining GVCs. For those LDCs that have already been able to join these global production network, up-grading towards higher "value-added" activities requires more encompassing horizontal policies.
Export Prohibitions and Restrictions
Eighty countries and customs territories so far have introduced export prohibitions or restrictions as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic according to a new report by the WTO Secretariat. The report, which is based on information from official sources and news outlets, draws attention to the current lack of transparency at the multilateral level and long-term risks that export restrictions pose to global supply chains and public welfare.
Indicative list of trade-related bottlenecks and trade-facilitating measures on critical products to combat covid-19
This information note seeks to facilitate access to information on possible trade-related bottlenecks and trade-facilitating measures on critical products to combat COVID-19, including inputs used in vaccine manufacturing, vaccine distribution and approval, therapeutics and pharmaceuticals, diagnostics and medical devices. It is not meant to be an exhaustive list of all specific trade measures, nor does it make any judgement on the effect or significance of the reported bottlenecks, nor on the desirability of implementing any of the suggestions on trade-facilitating measures.
Do Trade and Investment Agreements Lead to More FDI?
The previous literature provides a highly ambiguous picture on the impact of trade and investment agreements on FDI. Most empirical studies ignore the actual content of BITs and RTAs, treating them as "black boxes", despite the diversity of investment provisions constituting the essence of these agreements. We overcome this serious limitation by analyzing the impact of modalities on the admission of FDI and dispute settlement mechanisms in both RTAs and BITs on bilateral FDI flows between 1978 and 2004. We find that FDI reacts positively to RTAs only if they offer liberal admission rules. Dispute settlement provisions play a minor role. While RTAs without strong investment provisions may even discourage FDI, the reactions to BITs are less discriminate with foreign investors responding favourably to the mere existence of BITs.
Assessing the Supply Chain Effect of Natural Disasters
This paper uses Chinese firm level data to detect the international propagation of adverse shocks triggered by the US hurricane season in 2005. We provide evidence that Chinese processing manufacturers with tight trade linkages to the United States reduced their intermediate imports from the United States between July and October 2005.
Interplay Between Patents and Standards in the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Sector and its Relevance to the Implementation of the WTO Agreements
The interplay between patents and standards in the information and communication technology (ICT) sector has been intensively debated at international, regional and national levels over the past decades. In essence, the debate is firstly about the extent and impact of patent holdup and holdout in the ICT sector, and then about how to eliminate or reduce these practices.
Preferential Rules of Origin in Regional Trade Agreements
This study surveys preferential rules of origin applied by 192 regional trade agreements (RTAs) covering trade in goods notified to the GATT/WTO up to 1 November 2010. It takes into account the preferential rules of origin that were notified to the WTO; whenever known and available, modifications to the original rules of origin have been updated. This study contains two basic features: a description of some key elements of preferential rules of origin in RTAs, followed by an attempt to provide a reality-check of how these rules affect actual trade. That is done by an ex-post examination of data on the use of RTAs' preferences and, in their absence, of their margins of preference (MOPs). While the raison d'être of preferential rules of origin is the avoidance of trade deflection, the practice in RTAs has diluted this objective and it would seem that preferential rules of origin are increasingly becoming an economic, political and trade instrument. In its descriptive part, the study identifies what seems to be a tendency to design stricter rules of origin, while detecting concomitantly the inclusion in modern preferential rules of origin of flexibilities that provide, through the rules of origin themselves, a preference beyond the lower tariff rate resulting from the preferential treatment and mechanisms that allow the integration of third-parties into preferential rules of origin regimes. The reality-check part of the study points to the fact that much beyond the coverage of RTAs, it is their effective implementation that poses a challenge to economic operators. Though data on the use of preferences is either not disclosed or inexistent, they are nevertheless available for some economies. On the basis of existing data of preference utilization, the analysis of the effects of rules of origin on preferential trade flows appears to give rise to a dual reality - namely a relatively high use of preferences in certain instances coexisting with preferences failing to attain their potential in other cases. As regards RTAs for which utilization rate is not available, the paper analysis preferential rules of origin from a MOPS perspective, assuming that MOPs of at least 5 percentage points would offset compliance costs and thus provide a stimulus to comply with rules of origin in order to benefit from preferences. The analysis, made for 68 out of 192 RTAs, do not allow any conclusion regarding that generally presented hypothesis. Finally, the paper briefly outlines some suggestions for further action, including the launching in the WTO of exploratory work on preferential rules of origin within an "open regionalism" scenario.
Buena Vista Social Corporate Responsibility Provisions in Regional Trade Agreements
Corporate social responsibility (CSR) has become an integral part of many companies' business strategy. A detailed analysis of 579 RTAs, including 305 agreements currently in force and notified to the WTO (as of December 2020), reveals that a limited but increasing number of RTAs, namely 65 agreements, refer explicitly to CSR. These CSR-related provisions are particularly heterogeneous in terms of location in the RTA, language, scope and commitments.
Trade Imbalances and Multilateral Trade Cooperation
Rising current account and merchandise trade imbalances marked the years before the global financial and economic crisis. These imbalances either contributed to or precipitated the crisis and to the extent that they create systemic risks, it is desirable that they be reduced. There are many factors related to macroeconomic, structural, exchange rate and financial policies that contributed to the imbalances. The inability to manage these issues at the international level reflects the “coherence gap” in global governance. This paper examines the contribution that the WTO can make in its three areas of activities — negotiations, rule-making and dispute settlement — to deal with trade imbalances and with the main factors leading to them, including exchange rate misalignments. First, market opening efforts in services, including in the area of financial services, can reduce policy-related distortions and market imperfections in surplus countries that lead to the build-up of unsustainable imbalances. Second, in the context of a broad international effort to coordinate macroeconomic, exchange rate and structural policies to deal with the roots of imbalances (the first-best solution), there is a general efficiency argument that could be made for the use of WTO-triggered trade actions to enforce cooperative behaviour towards rebalancing. Absent this first-best response, trade rules alone would not provide an efficient instrument to compensate for the weaknesses in international co-operation in macroeconomic, exchange rate and structural policies.
Effects of WTO Accession on Policy-Making in Sovereign States
The purpose of the paper is to discuss the effects of WTO accession on policy-making and institutional reforms in transition countries. This is done by looking at the experience of those transition countries which are already Members of the WTO. We start by examining the effect of accession on trade policy and distinguish between the effects of accession negotiations and those of autonomous policy initiatives. We find that no precise blueprint of accession conditions can be ascertained, that WTO played a role, albeit not an exclusive one in the process of liberalization, that the costs of WTO Membership are not negligible, that the benefits of WTO Membership are also significant in terms of a better market access, improved governance and a recourse to better economic policies.
Cross-Border Mobility, COVID-19 and Global Trade
A new information note published by the WTO Secretariat highlights how trade in goods and services has been affected by temporary border closures and travel restrictions linked to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Digital Connectivity & E-Commerce
Digital networks are an increasingly critical component of global trade. In 2017, the Global Review of Aid for Trade highlighted the importance of accessible and affordable connections for trade connectivity. Drawing extensively on information harvested in the Monitoring and Evaluation exercise in preparation for the Review, this paper analyses aid for trade for digital connectivity and e-commerce.
Competition Policy and Poverty Reduction
This paper examines the role of competition law and policy as tools for poverty reduction and development. The authors put forward five related principles, building upon the important work on related issues that has been done by the OECD, the International Competition Network (ICN), UNCTAD and civil society organizations such as CUTS in recent years, in addition to the earlier work done on these topics in the WTO Working Group on the Interaction between Trade and Competition Policy when that body was active from 1997 through 2003. Together, these principles comprise the "holistic approach" to competition law and policy which is referenced in the title of the paper: First, the focus of policy makers in using competition policy as tool for poverty reduction should be on approaches that are relatively easy to implement but have a trackrecord of being effective and economically sound. Second, for competition policy reforms and legislation to be successful, public acceptance and support is critical and must be an essential focus of related initiatives. Third, to serve as an effective tool of poverty reduction, competition policy needs to address the needs of the citizens of poorer societies in their capacities as producers (and, therefore, as users of extensive input goods and services, including public infrastructure), in addition to their capacities as final consumers/households. Fourth, it is posited that "competition policy" is more than just "what competition agencies do" and includes the full spectrum of measures that governments employ to enhance competition and improve the performance of markets. Fifth, in order to address the challenges posed by the changing landscape of competition policy worldwide, new forms of international co-operation may need to be considered. The paper then develops the application of these principles with respect to five specific areas in which competition policy can contribute to poverty reduction, namely: (i) the reform of public and business infrastructure sectors, particularly in the context of developing and transition economies; (ii) the complementary roles of competition law enforcement and market liberalization in public procurement markets; (iii) various related dimensions of competition policy as they relate to public health objectives; (iv) the addressing of possible monopsonistic practices in international supply chains that may affect the ability of developing country producers to reap gains from participation in international markets; and (v) measures to address the enduring problem of international cartels which, despite an impressive record of prosecutions by developed jurisdiction competition agencies over the past decade, continue to impose substantial costs on developing economies. The paper concludes with some observations regarding the future of international cooperation in the competition policy sphere.
Standards, Regulations and COVID-19
Mainly affecting trade in medical products and food, such standards and regulatory measures typically account for two-thirds of the notifications members submit to the WTO in line with obligations under the Agreement on Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) and the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS). These agreements set out disciplines for standards and regulatory measures used to protect human, animal and plant life and health, the environment, and product safety. The paper notes that most of the COVID-related notifications were submitted under the emergency/urgent notification provisions in the two agreements in response to the pressing health problems posed by the pandemic. The notifications mainly concern trade in personal protective equipment, food, live animals, medical equipment and medicines. The notified measures fall under four main categories: streamlining certification procedures; ensuring safe medical goods; making food available by relaxing technical regulations; and addressing COVID-19 risks from international trade in live animals.
Market Access Provisions on Trade in Goods in Regional Trade Agreements
This paper assembles detailed information on the market access provisions in trade in goods contained in 192 active regional trade agreements (RTAs) notified to the WTO as of November 2010. Although market access provisions in trade in goods in RTAs have been addressed in a number of studies, much of this work has been limited to subsets of RTAs, particularly plurilateral RTAs involving three or more parties. The goal of the current study is to expand beyond the more commonly studied RTAs and to include all RTAs notified to the WTO for which data are available. This task has been facilitated by the recent Transparency Mechanism for RTAs (TM), adopted in 2006, that provides the basis for the systematic provision of detailed tariff and trade data by WTO Members engaged in RTAs. This information has been supplemented by other public sources of data, where available. A number of trends are evident. While a majority of RTAs result in a reasonably high degree of liberalization overall (with developing countries often liberalizing as much or more than developed countries), liberalization is not uniform across products or RTA parties. In some RTAs the degree of iberalization appears to be a negotiated outcome, depending on the RTA partner. Agricultural goods continue to be subject to lower levels of liberalization, frequent product exclusions and systematic protection in some RTAs, regardless of the RTA partner's comparative advantage. Nonetheless, a lower level of ambition in some RTAs is tempered by a commitment to negotiate further concessions or expand upon the RTA's scope at some future point: more than half the RTAs analysed contain such a commitment. Much has been written about the potential for the multilateralization of commitments undertaken in RTAs. While there may be scope for positive externalities in terms of regulatory convergence particularly with regard to services liberalization undertaken in RTAs, there is less evidence in this study to suggest that increased market access in merchandise goods leads to a more favourable trading environment for third parties. Continuing constructive engagement by WTO Members in the Transparency Mechanism through the provision of data, timely notifications, and submission of implementation reports will increase the availability of tariff and trade liberalization data, thus facilitating further examination of the topics highlighted in the study as worthy of future research.