Trade monitoring

Long-term forecasts are chronically difficult. It is unlikely that “revolutionary” events, such as the explosion of communication and interactive facilities that shape our current way of life, from social networking to international offshoring, could have been predicted 20 years ago with any degree of precision. Nevertheless, even though attempts to predict the future may, to a large extent, rely on extrapolations of current trends, these efforts may help to take stock of important developments and identify challenges arising from changes that we are likely to face.

El progreso tecnológico ha moldeado siempre la estructura del sistema de comercio mundial. La tecnología no es solo un factor determinante de los costos del comercio, sino que también define qué productos se pueden comercializar a través de las fronteras e influye en las tendencias de la ventaja comparativa.

Since its previous Trade Policy Review in 2012, the economy of Trinidad and Tobago has undergone three years of recession, due mainly to contractions in real economic activity in the energy sector (including oil and gas). During the period under review, real GDP growth averaged around –1% annually. Against this background, GDP per capita declined to around USD 16,000 in 2017, compared with around USD 19,000 in 2012. Government revenue, which is highly reliant on the petroleum sector, shrunk considerably, mirrored by an increase in the fiscal deficit and the net public sector debt. Nevertheless, during this period, unemployment remained relatively static, and inflation declined. The real effective exchange rate appreciated during the same period, due mainly to higher domestic prices compared with those in the country’s main trading partners.