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WTO Working Papers

WTO working papers usually represent research in progress. Such research may be conducted in the preparation of WTO Secretariat reports, studies or other material for WTO members. The papers are circulated for comment because the WTO considers critical review of professional research to be extremely important.

English

Potential Economic Effects of a Global Trade Conflict

Projecting the Medium-Run Effects with the WTO Global Trade Model

The WTO Global Trade Model is employed to project the medium-run economic effects of a global trade conflict. The trade conflict scenario is based on recent estimates in the literature of the difference between cooperative and non-cooperative tariffs.

English

Keywords: revealed comparative advantage (RCA), labour displacement, Nash tariffs, Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model
JEL: F13: International Economics / Trade / Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations; F51: International Economics / International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy / International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions; B41: History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches / Economic Methodology / Economic Methodology; F53: International Economics / International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy / International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations; F16: International Economics / Trade / Trade and Labor Market Interactions; C63: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling / Computational Techniques; Simulation Modeling
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