In this study, we investigate three trade policy scenarios: i) the revival of multilateralism, ii) plurilateral cooperation, and iii) geopolitical rivalry. In the first scenario, both tariffs and NTMs are reduced on a multilateral basis. In the second scenario, varying groups of countries cooperate on specific topics, such as E-commerce and services. In the last scenario, two main blocks emerge: a Western block and an Eastern block. International cooperation breaks down between blocks, leading to an increase in tariffs and NTMs, with blocks of countries setting up their own set of rules. Our findings are based on simulations with the WTO Global trade Model which has a specific novel feature: the diffusion of ideas between countries as a by-product of trade.

JEL: F13: International Economics / Trade / Trade Policy ; International Trade Organizations ; F17: International Economics / Trade / Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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  • Published online: 24 Jan 2023
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