In this paper the evolution of global trade patterns until 2050 is projected with a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Feeding the model with exogenous projections on macroeconomic, demographic, sectoral and trade cost variables, the evolution of trade patterns emerges endogenously from the model. The approach is innovative in both modelling approach and exogenous inputs. GDP growth emerges endogenously in the model because of diffusion of ideas as a result of international trade and trade cost changes are based on estimates of technology and trade policy changes.

JEL: D58: Microeconomics / General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium / Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models ; F17: International Economics / Trade / Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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  • Published online: 31 Jan 2023
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