Economic research and trade policy analysis

El Informe sobre el Comercio Mundial 2010 ha sido elaborado bajo la dirección general del Director General Adjunto Alejandro Jara y supervisado por Patrick Low, Director de la División de Estudios Económicos y Estadística. Los autores principales del Informe son Marc Bacchetta, Cosimo Beverelli, John Hancock, Alexander Keck, Gaurav Nayyar, Coleman Nee, Roberta Piermartini, Nadia Rocha, Michele Ruta, Robert Teh y Alan Yanovich. También han aportado contribuciones escritas Marc Auboin, Mireille Cossy y James Windon. Las estadísticas comerciales fueron facilitadas por el Grupo de Estadística de la División de Estudios Económicos y Estadística, bajo la coordinación de Hubert Escaith, Julia de Verteuil, Andreas Maurer y Jürgen Richtering.

Cette section examine les données empiriques concernant l’effet du commerce sur les salaires et l’emploi, et pose principalement les questions suivantes : quels éléments attestent l’effet de la concurrence des importations et de la délocalisation sur le niveau des salaires et de l’emploi ? Quelle est l’incidence sur l’emploi de l’élargissement de l’accès aux marchés pour les exportations et de la disponibilité d’intrants importés moins chers ? Comment comparer des données empiriques variées entre les pays ? Comment le fonctionnement du marché du travail influe-t-il sur les résultats ? À combien s’élèvent les coûts d’ajustement induits par le commerce ? Cette section se concentre plus particulièrement sur les salaires et l’emploi parce que les recherches sur les autres aspects du marché du travail, comme la stabilité et la sécurité de l’emploi, sont beaucoup moins développées en raison du manque de données transnationales, et ne permettent donc pas de comparer la manière dont le commerce et la technologie influent sur ces autres variables.

The distinction between formal and informal employment is somewhat fuzzy. Instead of a single, universally accepted concept there are many different and often competing views which are refl ected in a multiplicity of defi nitions. These, in turn, are linked to the plurality of methodologies that are used to quantify informal activities. This chapter presents existing views and defi nitions, as well as an integrated approach which is currently emerging based on the idea of multi-segmented labour markets.

El Informe sobre el Comercio Mundial 2008 ha sido elaborado bajo la supervisión general del Director General Adjunto Alejandro Jara. Patrick Low, Director de la División de Estudios Económicos y Estadística, dirigió el equipo encargado de redactar el Informe. Los autores principales del Informe son Marc Bachetta, Chad Bown, K. Michael Finger, Marion Jansen, Alexander Keck, Roberta Piermartini, Michele Ruta y Robert Teh. Las estadísticas comerciales fueron facilitadas por el grupo de estadística de la División de Estudios Económicos y Estadística, bajo la coordinación de Hubert Escaith, Julia de Verteuil, Andreas Maurer y Jürgen Richtering.

The relationship between economic growth, poverty reduction, and trade is not a simple one. Although great progress has been made in reducing the number of people living in extreme poverty, due in large part to the rapidly growing participation of developing countries in the global economy, nearly one billion people still live on less than $1.25 per day.

On 14 July 2016, Liberia joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) as its 163rd member. Liberia’s accession negotiations were done in 804 days since the appointment of the Chief Negotiator after stalling for over 6 years and 10 months since Liberia first applied for Accession. This unprecedented efficiency was made possible by a combination of factors. First, Liberia’s determination at the highest political level allowed it to conduct accession negotiations with commitment and focus, while adhering to a time-bound roadmap. Speed and efficiency of accession-related reforms were essential, as the country had endured an almost simultaneous double shock – the Ebola epidemic and a sharp drop in commodity prices. Second, WTO members appreciated this determination and were ready to move faster than usual in the negotiating process to help put the country on track with trade-related reforms, in particular those aimed at overcoming the twin shocks. Third, the WTO wished to include Liberia’s accession among the deliverables for its Tenth Ministerial Conference in Nairobi, the first ministerial conference to be held in Africa. The outcome was an accession that is now commonly referred to as the Liberian Model. An accession is concluded based on rational individual choices constructed around a vision for modernizing a country and its economy. This chapter highlights Liberia’s transformation and its challenges, and discusses why WTO accession continues to be essential in facilitating Liberia’s economic diversification agenda.

This section aims to put the discussion of the labour market effects of trade and technology into perspective. A narrow focus on these effects may give the misleading impression that trade and/or technology are the main determinants of employment or wages. As explained in this section, however, levels of employment or unemployment and of wages are largely determined by how the labour market works. In other words, the effects of technology or trade on labour market outcomes depend, to a large extent, on institutional conditions in the labour market, concomitant economic changes and the diversification of employment opportunities when shocks occur.

This section presents the importance of trade in services in the global economy by using an experimental dataset, developed by the WTO, called Trade in Services by Modes of Supply (TISMOS). This dataset captures services supplied through the four modes of supply categorized in the WTO General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS); traditional services trade statistics cover only three of the GATS modes of supply. This section also discusses the participation of developing economies, including least-developed countries (LDCs), the importance of micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), and the role of women in services trade. Finally, the section explores the content of services value-added in international global value chains.

Trade and investment liberalization has been one of the key features of economic policy in many developing countries since the 1990s. A new understanding of the benefits of international trade triggered unilateral tariff reductions from countries throughout the world. As a result, the global economy in the early 21st century has seen significantly reduced barriers, creating much larger trade volumes between countries. This has promoted globalization, as the increasingly borderless countries have nurtured the growth of production networks between countries. It has also made exports an engine of growth and a strategy to foster industrialization.

China is among the Article XII members which joined the WTO after its establishment in 1995. Membership of the WTO has served as a major stabiliser and strong accelerator for China’s economic take-off, although China’s accession commitments were highly demanding. One of the most profound impacts brought about by China’s accession has been that the country fully embraced the rules-based spirit upheld by the WTO. Concepts such as non-discrimination, transparency and the rule of law are no longer trade jargon but common words for the general public. To this end, China conducted the largest legislative reform in its history to establish a WTO-consistent legal system. China’s accession brought tangible benefits to the Chinese people, quadrupling the gross domestic product per capita increasing people’s income and improving people’s livelihood. Household income increased from about US$800 to US$3,300, marking an annual growth of 10 per cent. More than 200 million people were successfully lifted out of poverty. As China benefited from integration into the WTO and the rules-based multilateral trading system, it has shared these benefits with other WTO members, including and in particular least-developed countries.

El comercio de servicios sigue evolucionando. Las reformas tecnológica y reglamentaria están impulsando una transformación fundamental que crea una nueva demanda y ayuda simultáneamente a reducir los costos del comercio y abrir las puertas a nuevas oportunidades para el comercio de servicios. Gracias al impulso de las cadenas de valor mundiales, las tendencias demográficas, el incremento de los ingresos per cápita en los mercados emergentes y las preocupaciones ambientales, la demanda de servicios prestados en el extranjero es cada vez mayor. La evolución de las vías, los actores y la composición del comercio de servicios aumenta sus posibilidades de contribuir al crecimiento y el desarrollo económicos inclusivos, pero también plantean una serie de desafíos que es preciso abordar para poder explotar ese potencial.

En 2017 el Parlamento Europeo publicó una investigación en la que se afirmaba que las cadenas de bloques podían "cambiarnos la vida" (Boucher, 2017). Lo que demuestran las varias aplicaciones de la cadena de bloques que se están desarrollando en esferas tan diversas como la financiación del comercio, la facilitación del comercio, el comercio de servicios, la propiedad intelectual y la contratación pública es que esta tecnología puede tener repercusiones considerables tanto en los comerciantes como en los organismos públicos que participan en el comercio internacional. Las oportunidades tienen muchas facetas, pero solo se harán realidad si se resuelven varios retos fundamentales.

Le Rapport sur le commerce mondial 2006 est le quatrième de cette série qui a commencé à paraître en 2002. Comme les précédents rapports, il aborde une question de politique commerciale qui est d’actualité. Cette année, nous avons choisi comme thème les subventions. Notre objectif est d’aider à mieux comprendre les questions de politique commerciale complexes auxquelles les gouvernements sont confrontés. Le présent rapport a pour but non pas tant de formuler des prescriptions, que d’inviter à une réflexion approfondie. Il s’adresse non seulement aux décideurs mais aussi au public qu’ils représentent ainsi qu’aux personnes et aux organisations qui cherchent activement à influencer les politiques gouvernementales. Outre le thème central, le rapport examine brièvement les tendances récentes du commerce et analyse certaines de leurs caractéristiques les plus marquantes ou tel ou tel aspect particulier du commerce. Cette année, le rapport passe en revue le commerce des textiles et des vêtements, les flux internationaux de recettes et de paiements au titre des redevances et des droits de licence, les tendances du commerce des pays les moins avancés et les effets des catastrophes naturelles et des actes terroristes sur les courants d’échanges internationaux.

What is the role of the chairperson of a working party? What instruments can he or she use to manage the complexities of the WTO accession process? Typically, WTO accession negotiations are time consuming because of extensive domestic legislative and institutional reforms, which need to be aligned with economic development strategies. These reforms focus on the tough questions of eliminating trade barriers, improving governance, tackling corruption and enforcing the rule of law through WTO-consistent legislation. Formally, the function of the chairperson is to preside over working party meetings. In practice, the chairperson works as part of a team with the WTO Secretariat, led by the Accessions Division, in seeking to identify the balance of interests and what the market can bear, and hence leading the working party to develop a common view of its purpose and shared responsibility.

En la presente sección se examinan las maneras en que la política pública responde a los rasgos excepcionales de los recursos naturales. Se analiza cómo la desigual distribución geográfica de los recursos naturales crea incentivos para que los países importadores y exportadores utilicen medidas comerciales restrictivas y medidas internas para “captar” rentas monopolistas. Se examina la forma en que los gobiernos pueden utilizar restricciones comerciales y medidas internas para fortalecer los derechos de propiedad o reducir la explotación de los recursos naturales. En los casos en que el consumo o la extracción de un recurso natural afectan al medio ambiente, se consideran los pasos que los gobiernos podrían dar para que los productores y consumidores tengan en cuenta los costos sociales de sus actividades. Sin embargo, la utilización de políticas comerciales y políticas internas tendrá consecuencias para los interlocutores comerciales a través de las variaciones de su relación de intercambio. En algunos casos, la posibilidad de obtener grandes rentas de los recursos puede hacer que los gobiernos establezcan sus políticas bajo la presión de grupos con intereses creados en la extracción y el comercio de recursos naturales. Por último, en esta sección se examinará cómo puede contribuir la cooperación comercial regional a mitigar o resolver esas posibles fricciones en el ámbito de los recursos naturales.

El comercio y la producción empezaron a crecer de nuevo en el segundo semestre de 2009, después de que se registrara un descenso sin precedentes a principios del año. La recuperación hasta el primer trimestre de 2010 no fue suficiente para que fuera posible alcanzar los niveles anteriores a la crisis. La OMC prevé que la recuperación continuará en 2010, lo que permitiría anular algunos de los efectos del hundimiento del comercio. Uno de los hechos positivos de 2009 fue que entre los Miembros de la OMC no hubiera un aumento importante de los obstáculos al comercio como medida para hacer frente a la crisis, a pesar del elevado desempleo en muchos países. El sistema de reglamentación del comercio de la OMC ha contribuido en gran medida a impedir una nueva vuelta al proteccionismo, que tanto agravó las condiciones económicas en el decenio de 1930.

The two largest changes that have affected international trade since the 1990s are the creation of the new digital economy and the development of global value chains (GVCs). Both are inherently connected to new information and communication technology (ICT), and both have seemingly increased trade inclusivity, benefitting the trade participation of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) and developing countries. The interaction between the digital economy and GVCs is not well explored, however. Although the growth of both may have been in parallel, is there evidence that the digital platforms at the core of the digital economy affect GVC participation? This chapter examines the role of digital platforms, especially e-commerce marketplaces in the modern economy; the ways these platforms can increase economic inclusivity; and the development of GVCs and their effect on trade participation. The chapter also reviews the evidence on the link between digital platforms and GVC participation.

As noted in the preceding Chapter, several WTO agreements are relevant to health policy. Generally, the positive growth and income effects of more open and predictable trade regimes can provide the resources, as well as goods, services and information, for effective health systems. The WTO agreements explicitly allow governments, in pursuing national health and other policy objectives, to take measures to restrict trade in order to protect health. This is legitimate as a matter of principle. The emphasis in WTO rules is on how policies are pursued without questioning the underlying objective. For example, is a measure applied or enforced in a way that discriminates between trading partners or between imported products and products produced domestically? Are there ways of implementing policy that would be less restrictive on trade? Thus, it is the manner in which government pursue specific health policies in practice which might have trade-related implications, which are examined in this Chapter.

For most countries, foreign trade makes a critical contribution to the national economy, and the Russian Federation is no exception to this. Over the last five years the world economy has been strongly affected by the global economic crisis, which also seriously affected the Russian economy in general and its foreign trade in particular.

Over recent decades, the global economy has experienced a profound transformation, mostly as a result of the joint forces of trade integration and technological progress, accompanied by important political changes. Increased trade integration has helped to drive economic growth in both high-and low-income economies, lifting millions out of poverty in emerging and developing countries. Since the global financial crisis of 2007–08, however, trade, productivity and income growth have decelerated. At the same time, trade is increasingly perceived as leaving too many individuals and communities behind.

The World Trade Report 2005 follows the pattern established in previous years and takes up a number of key trade policy issues facing the international trading system for analysis and discussion. The underlying objective of the Report is to contribute to a deeper understanding of trade policy issues facing governments. The core topic in this year’s report is standards and international trade. Shorter essays have been prepared on three other topics – the use of quantitative economic analysis in WTO dispute settlement, international trade in air transport services, and offshoring services.

Over the last 50 years, the remarkable opening and integration of the world economy, in combination with the rapid pace of technological change, has contributed to raise the living standards of billions of people around the world, including some of the poorest. But this process of globalization has necessarily been accompanied by economic change, churn and displacement as labour, together with other factors of production shifted from declining industries to expanding ones.

Subsidies are one of many policy instruments subject to rules in the multilateral trading system, but they present more complex issues for policy-makers than many other instruments subject to GATT /WTO rules. One reason for this is that subsidies can be defined in different ways. Another is that that they are used in pursuit of a wide array of objectives. Even where they are not aimed at trade, they can affect trade flows. The kinds of subsidies of primary concern to this Report are those that impart an advantage to some domestic producers and thereby affect trade. The challenging task of determining which sorts of subsidies are problematic from the perspective of the trading system, and what might be done about them, has occupied an important place on the agenda of the WTO /GATT system.

International trade in services is governed principally by regulatory measures. Unlike trade in goods, border measures in the form of tariffs and quotas are not the main barriers to trade. This peculiarity of services trade is due to the manner by which services are produced and consumed. Due to the intangible and non-storable nature of services, suppliers and consumers often have to be in physical proximity to each other for the transaction to be completed. For this reason, economists have traditionally considered services to be non-tradable across borders and have paid little attention to it in trade theory.

This chapter addresses a number of concerns associated with state trading. What are the applicable WTO rules in this area and have they kept up with the evolving nature of production methods and the changing landscape of state trading enterprises (STEs)? How have state trading practices been approached in WTO accession negotiations? How many WTO members acceding under the provisions of Article XII of the Marrakesh Agreement Establishing the World Trade Organization (WTO Agreement) have accepted specific obligations aimed at disciplining the operations of STEs? What specific patterns have emerged across these commitments and how have they evolved over time? Have the commitments resulting from WTO accession negotiations offered a more effective and forward-looking approach to disciplining STE activities? What is the systemic relevance of STE-related accession commitments and what lessons can be drawn about possible future multilateral disciplines in this area? What has been the contribution of accession commitments relating to transparency in privatisation programmes? STE disciplines have been in the rulebook of the multilateral trading system since 1947, but have not kept track with the evolving nature of state trading operations. State trading plays a significant role in the economies of the majority of Article XII members. The applicability of existing WTO rules in this area has therefore been put to practice in their accession negotiations. The commitments resulting from accession negotiations have produced more comprehensive and forward-looking disciplines, which arguably capture modern-day state trading operations more adequately. Specifically, STE-related accession commitments have evolved over time to extend the scope of obligations to the purchases and sales of both goods and services, contribute further definitional clarity to the term ‘state trading enterprise’ and address the transparency deficit in this area. In addition to steering the operations of acceding governments’ STEs towards conformity with WTO principles, the evolution of these commitments is of systemic relevance to the multilateral trading system, as it points to the possible direction of future disciplines in this area. While not pre-judging the future development of multilateral provisions on state trading, it is argued that Article XII members, which today account for one-fifth of the WTO membership, are well placed to influence the direction of future discussions in the area of STEs.

Le commerce international fait partie intégrante du processus de mondialisation. Depuis de nombreuses années, la plupart des pays ouvrent de plus en plus leur économie au commerce international, que ce soit dans le cadre du système commercial multilatéral, d’une coopération régionale accrue ou de programmes de réformes internes. Plus généralement, le commerce international et la mondialisation ont apporté des avantages considérables à nombre de pays et à leurs citoyens. Le commerce a permis aux pays de tirer parti de la spécialisation et des économies d’échelle pour produire de manière plus efficiente. Il a entraîné des gains de productivité, favorisé la diffusion des connaissances et des technologies nouvelles et élargi le choix des consommateurs. Mais l’intégration plus poussée dans l’économie mondiale n’a pas toujours été bien accueillie et les avantages du commerce et de la mondialisation n’ont pas toujours profité à tous les segments de la société. On observe dans certains milieux un scepticisme croissant à l’égard du commerce; d’où le thème du Rapport sur le commerce mondial de cette année, à savoir «Le commerce à l’heure de la mondialisation», qui vise à rappeler ce que nous savons des gains tirés du commerce international et des défis liés à une intégration plus poussée.

Over recent decades the global economy has experienced a profound transformation, mostly as a result of the joint forces of trade integration and technological progress, combined with important political changes. There is no doubt that this transformation has been accompanied by significant positive effects at the global level. Increased trade integration has helped to raise incomes in advanced and developing economies, lifting millions out of poverty. Since the global financial crisis of 2007–08, however, trade, productivity and income growth have decelerated, partly because of a slowdown in the pace of trade reforms fuelled by a change in attitudes towards globalization and trade.

Regionalism emerged as a global policy concern during the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations, towards the end of the 1980s. Before then it had comfortably co-existed alongside the multilateral trading system. The stability of the system hinged strongly on the leadership that the US had provided since the early days of the GATT until the late 1980s. It was only when the US turned to regionalism that the edifice of the multilateral system began to experience tremors, and regionalism started becoming a threat to the functioning and credibility of the multilateral trading system. The stumbling block/building block metaphor widely credited to the Columbia University scholar, Jagdish Bhagwati, reflected the anxiety that the rapid spread of regionalism caused.

Preferential trade agreements (PTAs) continue to proliferate. Always a central element of the trade policy strategy of European countries, ‘regionalism’ has now become the dominant form of international cooperation on trade policy for virtually all the members of the WTO, developed and developing. The proliferation of PTAs has been accompanied by steadily declining barriers to trade generally, and high growth rates in world trade. The uniform tariff equivalent of all applied most favoured nation tariffs of high-income OECD countries in 2005 was 4.8 per cent. Excluding agricultural products, the figure drops to 2.7 per cent (Kee, Nicita and Olarreaga, 2008). For the developing countries, the focus of this chapter, applied MFN tariffs have also fallen substantially; Kee et al. estimate that the median average overall trade restrictiveness index was 7.5 per cent for the fifty-seven countries for which data are available in 2005, compared with 12.3 per cent ten years earlier. This reduction in external MFN protection reflects mostly unilateral, autonomous actions by governments (Martin and Messerlin, 2007). While PTAs can be building blocks or stumbling blocks for multilateral liberalization, it is incontrovertible that the level of MFN trade barriers has been falling.

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights a paradox: globalization has created a world that is both more vulnerable and more resilient to crises. On the one hand, economic integration makes us more dependent on far-flung trade networks and more exposed to cascading risks and shocks. On the other hand, economic integration also allows us to diversify suppliers, pool resources, and share information and expertise. The same features that make the global economy susceptible to crises – openness, interdependence, networked technologies – also make it adaptable, innovative, and better able to withstand crises when they hit. Strengthening trade, by making it more diversified, inclusive and cooperative, is also central to making the global economy more resilient to current and future crises, from pandemics to climate change.

World merchandise trade in volume terms (i.e. excluding the influence of prices and exchange rates) fell by 12.2 per cent in 2009. This was well below the 2.1 per cent increase for 2008, and significantly lower than the 10 year average increase of 4.1 per cent. The drop in trade was also larger than the 2.3 per cent decline in GDP for 2009, which is not surprising since world trade generally grows faster than GDP when output is accelerating and declines more when output slows.

Le Dictionnaire des termes de politique commerciale en est à sa sixième édition. Il a encore grossi et compte désormais plus de 3000 entrées et renvois. Bon nombre de ces entrées sont nouvelles.

The crisis in Ukraine has created a humanitarian crisis of immense proportions and has also dealt a severe blow to the global economy. The brunt of the suffering and destruction are being felt by the people of Ukraine themselves but the costs in terms of reduced trade and output are likely to be felt by people around the world through higher food and energy prices and reduced availability of goods exported by Russia and Ukraine. Poorer countries are at high risk from the war, since they tend to spend a larger fraction of their incomes on food compared to richer countries. This could impact political stability.

We live in a time of rapid technological change that has the possibility of profoundly altering the conduct of international trade. For many people keeping up to date with the latest technology and fully understanding its implications can be daunting. This report will help illuminate the so-called “disruptive technologies” that are most relevant to border management, as well as assist governments to better understand the challenges and benefits of their use by Customs.

The World Trade Report 2022 was prepared under the general responsibility and guidance of Anabel González and Jean-Marie Paugam, WTO Deputy Directors-General, and was coordinated by José-Antonio Monteiro and Ankai Xu.

Tackling climate change requires a transformation of the global economy. While limiting consumption and changing lifestyles would help, reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero will be impossible without technological and structural change on a global scale. This transformation will involve costs, but also opportunities – not just to head off an environmental catastrophe, but to reinvent the way the world generates energy, manufactures products and grows food. Just as trade helped to drive economic progress in the past – by incentivizing innovation, leveraging comparative advantages and expanding access to resources and technologies – trade can play a central role in driving progress towards a low-carbon global economy. But harnessing the potential of trade will demand new policies and more cooperation.