Economic research and trade policy analysis
Introduction
Services have become the most dynamic sector of world trade – but in ways that are not always recognized or understood. Just as services have come to dominate many national economies, they are playing a bigger role in the global economy as well. Many factors are driving this – including consumption, liberalization and investment – but the game-changer is technology. Services that were once difficult to trade, because they could only be delivered in person, are becoming far easier to trade, because they can be delivered digitally. The 2019 World Trade Report explores this globalization of services – why it is happening, how it is impacting economies, and where new policy approaches are needed.
Introduction
Product standards specify or pin down the characteristics of a product. These characteristics can include design, size, weight, safety, energy and environmental performance, interoperability, material, and even the process of production. Examples of standards include the dimensions of freight containers and of screw threads; safety performance of seat belts, air bags and medical devices; pasteurization of milk; and protocols that allow computers from different vendors to communicate with one another.
Resumen
El comercio internacional es parte esencial del proceso de globalización. Durante muchos años, los gobiernos de la mayor parte de los países han abierto cada vez más sus economías al comercio internacional, ya sea a través del sistema multilateral de comercio, de la intensificación de la cooperación regional o en el marco de programas internos de reforma. En términos más generales, el comercio y la globalización han reportado beneficios ingentes a muchos países y ciudadanos. El comercio ha permitido a muchas naciones obtener los beneficios de la especialización y hacer economías para producir a una escala más eficiente. Ha incrementado la productividad, impulsado la difusión del conocimiento y de nuevas tecnologías y aumentado la posibilidad de elección de los consumidores. Pero la opción de una mayor integración en la economía mundial no siempre ha gozado de popularidad y los beneficios del comercio y de la globalización no siempre han llegado a todos los sectores de la sociedad. El escepticismo sobre el comercio es cada vez mayor en determinados ámbitos y la finalidad del tema central del Informe sobre el Comercio Mundial de este año, titulado “El comercio en un mundo en proceso de globalización”, es recordar lo que sabemos sobre los beneficios del comercio internacional y los retos que plantea un nivel mayor de integración.
Improving the accounting frameworks for analyses of global value chains
The use of global input-output tables, and the creation of Trade in Value-Added (TiVA) statistics, has greatly improved our understanding of the fragmentation of global production through value chains. However, their application requires a number of assumptions that, in practice, typically understate the degree of interconnectedness. TiVA estimates implicitly assume identical production functions across firms within an industry, when in reality production functions differ considerably. Typically, larger (and foreign-owned) firms tend to be more trade oriented than smaller (and domestically-owned) firms. As a result, TiVA statistics underestimate the import content of exports for the economy as a whole, a key indicator characterizing global production. Moreover, TiVA analyses are based on basic price concepts, which provide an appropriate view of production through value chains, but are less well equipped to analyse consumption, particularly as they exclude significant distribution margins (in particular retail and wholesale activities, often including marketing activities and brands), which add value at the end of the chain. This can distort analyses using “smile curves”, which show the distance from final demand of different sectors within value chains, and in turn understate the scale of jobs supported by trade.
Compromisos de política comercial y medidas de contingencia
Los acuerdos comerciales definen las normas para la dirección de la política comercial. Esas normas deben establecer un equilibrio entre compromisos y flexibilidad. En tanto que una excesiva flexibilidad puede menoscabar el valor de los compromisos, un margen de flexibilidad demasiado estrecho puede hacer que las normas sean políticamente insostenibles. Esta tensión entre compromisos creíbles y flexibilidad está siempre latente en las negociaciones comerciales. Por ejemplo, la cuestión de un “mecanismo de salvaguardia especial” (la medida en que se autorizaría a los países en desarrollo a proteger a los agricultores frente al aumento brusco de las importaciones) fue decisiva en las deliberaciones de la minirreunión ministerial de julio de 2008, en la que se trató de acordar las modalidades de negociación -o un proyecto definitivo- para la agricultura y el acceso a los mercados para los productos no agrícolas (AMNA).
Actual and perceived effects of offshoring on economic insecurity: The role of labour market regimes
Despite broad public concern with the effect of firms’ offshoring behaviour on economic insecurity, there is scant research. Most analysis over the past 20 years – widely acknowledged as a period of rapid globalization – has focused on the impact of offshoring on workers depending on whether they are “skilled” or “unskilled”. The main research question has been the relative contribution of trade versus technological change to the rise in wage inequality in many industrialized countries. In this chapter we seek to broaden our understanding of the effect of offshoring on economic insecurity and also to connect the question of economic insecurity to national labour market institutions and to workers’ perceptions of globalization. We shift the focus to the effect of offshoring on the labour share of income rather than on its relative impact on high- and low-skilled workers. The labour share (or one minus the capital share) is affected by firm-level changes in productivity, labour demand and the distribution of value added. It is useful to capture profits and wages in the measure of economic security, since offshoring is driven by the corporations’ pursuit of higher profits and greater flexibility. Moreover, the labour share comprises workers’ earnings and employment, and analysis of the impact of offshoring on economic insecurity should include both.
Conclusions
Over the last few decades, services have become the backbone of the global economy and the most dynamic component of international trade. Services are increasingly easier to trade thanks in large part to digitalization. From online education to virtual law firms, technology is penetrating all services sectors, transforming services traditionally delivered face-to-face into remotely tradable services. Trade, long dominated by the exchange of goods, increasingly involves services, transforming the global economy in the process.
The economics of subsidies
The purpose of this Section is to assist the reader to better understand the twin questions of why governments use subsidies and how subsidies impact international trade. As is frequently the case in economic analysis, the starting point for what follows is a “benchmark” economy featuring perfectly competitive markets. This approach provides the basis for general insights into the impact of policy interventions such as subsidies. As discussed further below, under the condition of a perfectly competitive market, no case can be made for a subsidy. Introducing a subsidy or some other government measure within a perfect market framework will be inefficient and welfare-diminishing. But if the perfect market assumption is relaxed, situations may arise where a government measure like a subsidy improves welfare. An efficient subsidy would correct a market failure, bringing social and private costs and benefits into alignment.
Prólogo
En la era digital, son cada vez más los Gobiernos que han adoptado políticas encaminadas a impulsar el crecimiento por medio de la innovación y la modernización tecnológica. Las repercusiones económicas a nivel nacional asociadas a la pandemia de COVID-19 están llevando a los países a fortalecer esas políticas. En el presente informe se examinan esas tendencias y el papel que desempeñan el comercio y la OMC en este contexto. Se muestra asimismo que la cooperación internacional contribuye de manera significativa a que los países alcancen esos objetivos con mayor eficacia, minimizando al mismo tiempo los efectos indirectos negativos de las políticas nacionales.
Foreword
The World Trade Report 2004 is the second annual publication in the WTO Secretariat’s new series. As I indicated last year, the World Trade Report seeks to deepen public understanding of current trade policy issues and to contribute to more informed consideration of the options facing governments. Like last year, the Report begins with a review of recent world trade developments. This is followed by three shorter essays – on trade preferences, the temporary movement of natural persons, and geographical indications. The main topic of the Report this year is coherence.
Supply chains and trade finance
The issue of finance is an integral one in the supply chain context, given that supply chains embody flows of information, capital, goods, and labour. The concept of credit chains, reviewed here, directly addresses this. The supply chain concept has traditionally tended to emphasise the tangible/material dimensions of the chain. As a result, the financial dimension had been relatively neglected in the literature. This changed with the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. As both a potential aggravator and victim of the crisis, trade finance and supply chains became the subject of a new and rapidly growing body of literature. Previously, the subject had been largely addressed in the context of operations research and economic development. We review findings from all research areas in the literature, and observe significant merit in the credit chain concept of supply chain financial flows. Migration of the concept to other areas of supply chain research could potentially address financial dimensions of supply chains that are otherwise underemphasised in the literature.
Prefacio del director general
El Informe sobre el Comercio Mundial de este año se centra en la importancia del comercio en un mundo que durante los últimos decenios se ha caracterizado por una dependencia creciente entre los países. Esta interdependencia -que hoy llamamos globalización- es un fenómeno complejo y polifacético que comporta una intensa interacción política, social y económica a escala nacional e internacional. Pocos pondrían en duda los beneficios que ha producido la globalización en forma de una mayor prosperidad para centenares de millones de personas y una mayor estabilidad entre los países. Sin embargo, muchas personas de diferentes sociedades de todo el mundo han disfrutado poco o nada los beneficios de la globalización. Los retos a los que se enfrentan los gobiernos nacionales para administrar la globalización son formidables y para que se extienda la prosperidad se requiere una decidida unidad de miras.
Résumé analytique
Lors de la quatrième Conférence ministérielle de l’Organisation mondiale du commerce (OMC) organisée à Doha en novembre 2001, les Ministres ont engagé un large éventail de négociations commerciales multilatérales et adopté un programme de travail. Ce mandat - appelé parfois Programme de Doha pour le développement - témoigne de leur volonté commune de veiller à ce que le système commercial soit pertinent et adapté aux besoins des pays en développement. Les négociations et le programme de travail couvrent, entre autres, l’accès aux marchés des produits manufacturés, l’agriculture et les services, certaines règles (mesures antidumping, subventions et mesures compensatoires, accords régionaux), le commerce et l’environnement, les droits de propriété intellectuelle qui touchent au commerce, l’interaction du commerce et de la politique de la concurrence, la transparence des marchés publics, la facilitation des échanges et le règlement des différends. Les pays en développement sont pour beaucoup dans l’inscription à l’ordre du jour de questions telles que le commerce et le transfert de technologie; le commerce, la dette et les finances; les petites économies; les questions de mise en oeuvre (s’agissant en particulier des dossiers en suspens depuis le Cycle d’Uruguay) ou le traitement spécial et différencié. Les points de vue divergent encore sur les modalités – et, parfois, l’opportunité – de l’inclusion de toutes ces questions dans les négociations, dont la conclusion est prévue pour la fin de 2004.
The influence of international non-state actors in multilateral and preferential trade agreements: A question of forum shopping?
This chapter examines the influence that non-state actors (NSAs) seek to exert on trade policy formulation at the WTO multilateral level and at the national governmental level. The analysis focuses on international NSAs that have a substantial presence in Geneva, either because they are based there or because they seek to engage on a regularized basis with the WTO. The main objectives of this chapter are to explore how these NSAs seek to influence trade policy development, both at the WTO and the national level, especially in relation to the question of forum choice: that is, the relative benefits of negotiating multilaterally or preferentially. It also investigates whether those NSAs involved in trade policy-making consider the WTO versus PTAs as a form of ‘forum-shopping’ to pursue their particular agendas, interests and objectives.
Prólogo
El comercio ha mejorado el nivel de vida de miles de millones de personas, muchas de las cuales son mujeres. Numerosos datos empíricos demuestran que el comercio ha dado lugar a un aumento de la productividad, una mayor competencia, precios más bajos y un incremento de los ingresos y el bienestar. Sin embargo, como ha puesto de manifiesto la pandemia de COVID-19, el comercio puede verse gravemente perturbado. Existe el riesgo de que, a raíz de la crisis provocada por la COVID-19, se pierdan algunas de las ganancias económicas que han obtenido las mujeres gracias al comercio. Por consiguiente, la cooperación es esencial para mantener condiciones que permitan una rápida recuperación y para crear un comercio más inclusivo y sostenible en el futuro.
Thailand
The politicization of trade policy-making in Thailand is arguably more pronounced than elsewhere in the world, including at the global level where multilateral trade negotiations (MTNs) under the World Trade Organization (WTO) are currently stalled. Indeed, the Thai case of trade policy quagmire is quite dramatic for having adversely impinged on the country’s body politic to the extent that a popularly elected government was ousted in a military coup, and an anti-free trade agreement (FTA) bias worked its way into a new military-organized constitution, contributing to a prolonged and protracted political crisis. That Thai trade policy has become increasingly politicized over the first decade of the twenty-first century is attributable to a number of dynamics, some in parallel to trade policy experiences in the rest of the world, others more specific to domestic circumstances.
Introduction
Au cours des dernières décennies, Internet a fait irruption dans chaque recoin de notre vie des interactions sociales aux loisirs en passant par le travail et a fondamentalement remodelé nos économies, en réduisant considérablement le coût d’acquisition et d’échange de l’information. Il a alimenté la révolution numérique, modifiant radicalement notre façon de communiquer, de consommer et de produire, et il a profondément transformé le commerce international et ce qui est échangé, par qui et de quelle façon.