Economic research and trade policy analysis
National Environmental Policies and Multilateral Trade Rules
This paper provides an overview of institutional, economic and legal aspects of the relationship between national environmental policies and the multilateral trading system. In particular, it analyses some of the difficulties the WTO Dispute Settlement System faces when having to evaluate disputes on national environmental policies that have an impact on trade. From an economist's point of view it would be desirable that optimal environmental policies, i.e. policies that correct existing market failures, be ruled consistent with multilateral trade law. This paper argues that WTO law in theory provides appropriate tools to ensure rulings that are consistent with economic thinking. Yet, the paper also argues that economists have a rather imperfect knowledge of the precise welfare effects of different types of environmental policies. In practice, therefore, it is questionable whether economists are able to give adequate guidance to legal experts when it comes to the evaluation of national environmental policies. This is one of the reasons why there continues to be some degree of uncertainty as to the possible interpretations of certain WTO rules in the context of environmental disputes.
Non-Reciprocal Preference Erosion Arising from MFN Liberalitzation in Agriculture
This paper estimates the risk of preference erosion for non-reciprocal preference recipients in the agricultural sector as a consequence of MFN tariff cuts. It is based on a simulation of a single tariff-cutting scenario. The measure of preference erosion risk is the difference in preference margins enjoyed by individual suppliers to the QUAD (Canada, EU, Japan, United States) markets before and after a MFN tariff reduction, multiplied by the associated trade flow. The paper does not attempt to determine how losses in preference margins translate into trade outcomes, but it does highlight which products and which non-reciprocal preference beneficiaries are the most vulnerable to erosion effects in the major developed country markets. Overall, the paper finds that the risk of preference erosion is small, but some countries are strongly affected in particular product lines (notably sugar and bananas).
Political & Quasi-Adjudicative Dispute Settlement Models in European Union Free Trade Agreements
In this paper, interpretation and application dispute settlement provisions of European Union (EU) Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) signed between 1963 and 2006 are analysed. This will be through the two models of Dispute Settlement in International Law: the political and adjudicative. Political elements of dispute settlement mechanisms in Public international Law and General Agreement of Tariffs and Trade (GATT) served to establish those of the EU FTAs. Adjudicative and quasi-adjudicative elements of dispute settlement mechanisms of Public International Law and World Trade Organization (WTO) Law were used as parameters to set up those of the EU FTAs. These parameters also helped to define a new and unique hybrid model. The features of this model were found in Agreements with trade issues other than FTAs. It is possible, however, for future FTAs to incorporate them. The hybrid model is based on an adjudicative framework and includes both political and adjudicative elements. In conclusion, it was found that even though WTO Members incorporated adjudicative elements in the Dispute Settlement Understanding (DSU), the EU did not incorporate them bilaterally for a further five years. Furthermore, since the creation of the DSU in 1995, the EU has established more FTAs based on a political model than on a quasi-adjudicative. Consequently, the quasi-adjudicative dispute settlement model has not represented a clear trend in EU FTAs.
Competition policy, trade and the global economy: Existing WTO elements, commitments in regional trade agreements, current challenges and issues for reflection
Competition policy, today, is an essential element of the legal and institutional framework for the global economy. Whereas decades ago, anti-competitive practices tended to be viewed mainly as a domestic phenomenon, most facets of competition law enforcement now have an important international dimension. Examples include: the investigation and prosecution of price fixing and market sharing arrangements that often spill across national borders and, in important instances, encircle the globe; multiple recent, prominent cases of abuses of a dominant position in high-tech network industries; important current cases involving transnational energy markets; and major corporate mergers that often need to be simultaneously reviewed by multiple jurisdictions.
The Role of WTO Committees through the Lens of Specific Trade Concerns Raised in the TBT Committee
In this paper we provide some evidence of the common claim that STCs improve transparency and monitoring as well as help mitigate trade conflicts.
Testing the Trade Credit and Trade Link
Trade finance has received special attention during the financial crisis as one of the potential culprits for the great trade collapse. Several researchers have used micro level data to establish the link between trade finance and trade, especially so during the financial crisis, and have found diverting results. This paper analyses the effect of trade credit on trade on a macro level through a whole cycle. We employ Berne Union data on export credit insurance, the most extensive dataset on trade credits available at the moment, for the period of 2005--2011-. Using an instrumentation strategy we can identify a significantly positive effect of insured trade credit, as a proxy for trade credits, on trade. The effect of insured trade credit on trade is very strong and remains stable over the cycle, not varying between crisis and non-crisis periods.
Reform in Basic Telecommunications and the WTO Negotiations
This paper examines liberalization of the basic telecommunications sector in a number of Asian countries and the role of the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) in this process. It begins by explaining the working of the GATS as a mechanism for multilateral liberalization efforts. It then presents a description of the reforms taking place in the telecom regimes of selected Asian countries, and of the commitments these countries made in the recent GATS negotiations. The paper explores the reasons why governments have taken advantage of the GATS negotiations to make multilateral market-opening commitments, even though they were not pursuing export interests. The paper also considers the limits to what was achieved by way of liberalization commitments in the negotiations. Allowing greater foreign equity participation without liberalizing the conditions of entry may raise national welfare concerns. Furthermore, certain governments could have taken greater advantage of the opportunity under GATS to precommit to future liberalization.
The WTO Global Trade Costs Index and Its Determinants
This study provides a decomposition of the WTO Global Trade Costs Index into five policy-relevant components: transport and travel costs; information and transaction costs; ICT connectedness; trade policy and regulatory differences; and governance quality. The WTO Global Trade Costs Index is based on a new methodology by Egger et al. (2021) that delivers directional trade cost estimates and sector-specific elasticities which are crucial for inferring trade costs from trade flows data. The resulting measure of trade costs includes all factors that burden foreign sales more than domestic ones. In this study, we run a sectoral regression analysis to determine what drives trade costs variation across partners and use the results to decompose the variation in trade costs in each sector.
Recent Trade Dynamics in Asia
This paper looks at the extent to which the shift in the lower value added production to countries in the following development "tier" is actually becoming a reality.
Supply Chain Finance and SMEs
The unbundling of trade across regions offers unique opportunities for SMEs to integrate into global trade notably through their involvement into supply-chains. With supplychains shifting and expanding into new regions of the world, the challenge for SMEs to accessing financing remains an important one; in many developing and emerging market economies, the capacity of the local financial sector to support new traders is limited. Moreover, after the financial crisis, several global banks have "retrenched", for various reasons. In this context, supply-chain finance arrangements, and other alternative forms of financing such as through factoring, have proven increasingly popular among traders. This paper shows that factoring has a positive effect in allowing SMEs to access international trade, in countries in which it is available. Factoring also appears to be employed by firms involved in global supply chains. We employ for the first time data on factoring from Factor Chain International (FCI), the most extensive dataset on factoring available at the moment, for the period of 2008-2015. Using an instrumentation strategy we identify a strong, stable effect of factoring on SMEs access to capital for some of the main traders in the world.
The Impact of Transparency on Foreign Direct Investment
Non-transparency is a term given in this paper to a set of government policies that increase the risk and uncertainty faced by economic actors foreign investors. This increase in risk and uncertainty stems from the presence of bribery and corruption, unstable economic policies, weak and poorly enforced property rights, and inefficient government institutions. Our empirical analysis shows that the degree of non-transparency is an important factor in a country's attractiveness to foreign investors. High levels of non-transparency can greatly retard the amount of foreign investment that a country might otherwise expect. The simulation exercise presented in the statistical part of this paper reveals that on average a country could expect 40 percent increase in FDI from a one point increase in their transparency ranking. Pari passu, non-transparent policies translate into lower levels of FDI and hence lower levels of welfare and efficiency in the host country's economy. A nation that takes steps to increase the degree of transparency in its policies and institutions could expect significant increases in the level of foreign investment into their country. This increased investment translates into more resources, which in turn increases social welfare and economic efficiency.
Trade Finance, Gaps and the COVID-19 Pandemic
Developments in trade finance in 2020 were largely driven by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Twelve years after the great financial crisis of 2008-09, the issue of trade finance re-emerged as a matter of urgency. While the current pandemic-related crisis did not have a financial cause, one of its results has been that many countries are experiencing difficulties in accessing trade credit. This is occurring notably in countries – particularly developing countries – in which structural trade finance gaps were high even before the pandemic
International health worker mobility and trade in services
Despite its substantial and increasing importance to health systems and inclusive economic growth, the relationship between international trade in services and health worker mobility has been largely unexplored. However, international health worker mobility and trade in services have both been increasing rapidly, and at a growing pace in recent years.
On the Effectsof GATT/WTO Membership on Trade
We capitalize on the latest developments in the empirical structural gravity literature to revisit the question of whether and how much does GATT/WTO membership affect international trade. We are the first to capture the non-discriminatory nature of GATT/WTO commitments by measuring the effects of GATT/WTO membership on international trade relative to domestic sales.
Exposure to External Country Specific Shocks and Income Volatility
Using a dataset of 138 countries over a period from 1966 to 2004, this paper analyses the relevance of country specific shocks for income volatility in open economies. We show that exposure to country specific shocks has a positive and significant impact on GDP volatility. In particular, we find that the degree to which the cycles of different trading partners are correlated is more important in explaining exporters’ GDP volatility than the volatility of demand in individual export market. We also show that geographical diversification is a significant determinant of countries' exposure to country specific shocks. Keywords: income volatility, geographical export diversification, external shocks.
Developing and Delivering COVID-19 Vaccines Around the World
The WTO Secretariat has published a new information note on trade-related issues for COVID-19 vaccine production, manufacturing and deployment. The note, entitled “Developing and delivering COVID-19 vaccines around the world,” explores how trade policy can play its part in ensuring the rapid roll-out of vaccines against COVID-19.
The Impact of Mode 4 Liberalization on Bilateral Trade Flows
This paper gives insights into the possible trade creating effects of service trade liberalization via Mode 4. In particular we expect that temporary movements of persons, like permanent movements, have the potential to reduce transaction costs for merchandise trade between home and host country. Exploiting data on H-1B beneficiaries from different origins in the United States and using a gravity model of trade, we find significantly positive effects of temporary movements of persons on bilateral merchandise trade. In addition to this, the paper provides insights into the determinants of temporary movements of persons.
Does Globalization Cause a Higher Concentration of International Trade and Investment Flows?
It has sometimes been argued that "globalization" benefits only a small number of countries, and that this leads to greater marginalization of excluded countries. This paper argues that globalization is not necessarily biased towards greater concentration in international trade and investment flows. Marginalization is more likely to be explained by domestic policies in relatively closed countries. The paper shows that among relatively open economies, the concentration of international trade and investment flows has declined over the last two decades, whereas the opposite is true among relatively closed economies. Thus, marginalization is not intrinsic to globalization. Key Words: Globalization, international trade and investment flows concentration.
The Economic Impact of EPAs in SADC Countries
The Cotonou Agreement introduces new fundamental principles with respect to trade between the European Union and African, Caribbean and Pacific countries relative to the Lomé Convention: in particular non-reciprocal preferential market access for ACP economies will only last until 1 January 2008. After that date, it will be replaced by a string of Economic Partnership Agreements meant to progressively liberalise trade in a reciprocal way. The progressive removal of barriers to trade is expected to result in the establishment of Free Trade Agreements between the EU and ACP regional groups in accordance with the relevant WTO rules and help further existing regional integration efforts among the ACP. In this paper, an applied general equilibrium model (15 regions, 9 sectors) is used to simulate the impact of EPAs for countries of the Southern African Development Community. The standard Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model has been extended to include the elimination of textile quotas, EU enlargement to 25 members as well as tax revenue sharing and a common external tariff among Southern African Customs Union countries. A number of comparisons between different scenarios are undertaken, in particular: (i) the EPA scenario is compared to the multilateral liberalization scenario; (ii) SADC liberalization with the EU only is compared to a scenario with simultaneous regional integration among African economies and to the case of the EU also signing an FTA with Mercosur; and (iii) a complete reduction of import barriers is contrasted with partial liberalization (i.e. only 50 per cent tariff reductions in agriculture) and with full trade liberalization that includes the elimination of subsidies. The issue of tariff revenue loss is also addressed and the required tax replacement is calculated. Selected experiments are re-run under an unemployment closure. Simulation results show that EPAs with the EU are welfare-enhancing for SADC overall, leading also to substantive increases in real GDP. For most countries further gains may arise from intra-SADC liberalization. The possibility of the EU entering an FTA with other countries, such as Mercosur, reduces estimated gains, but they still remain largely positive. Similarly, estimated gains need to be revised downwards if agriculture liberalization is not as far reaching as a reduction of import barriers for manufactures. At the sectoral level, the largest expansions in SADC economies take place in the animal agriculture and processed food sectors, while manufacturing becomes comparatively less attractive following EU-SADC liberalization. Interestingly, multilateral liberalization would instead foster some of the manufacturing sectors (textile and clothing and light manufacturing). Results also show the need for the SACU tariff pooling formula to be adjusted to reflect new import patterns as tariffs are removed.
A Commitment Theory of Subsidy Agreements
This paper examines the rationale for the rules on domestic subsidies in international trade agreements through a framework that emphasizes commitment. We build a model where the policy-maker has a tariff and a production subsidy at its disposal, taxation can be distortionary and the import-competing sector lobbies the government for favourable policies. The model shows that, under political pressures, the government will turn to subsidies when its ability to provide protection is curtailed by a trade agreement that binds tariffs only. We refer to this as the policy substitution problem. When factors of production are mobile in the long-run but investments are irreversible in the short-run, we show that the government cannot credibly commit vis-à-vis the domestic lobby unless the trade agreement also regulates production subsidies, thus addressing the policy substitution problem. Finally, we employ the theory to analyze the Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (SCM) Agreement within the GATT/WTO system.
WTO Decision-Making for the Future
Decision making in the WTO has become ever more difficult as the number of members increases and the range of issues tackled broadens. This paper looks at reasons why aspects of decision-making might be changed and discusses a number of potential pitfalls that change would have to avoid, such as a dilution of commitments and fragmentation of the multilateral trading system. It then takes a detailed look at the notion of ‘critical mass’ decision-making. It argues for this approach under certain conditions, as it would: i) allow for the emergence of a more progressive and responsive WTO agenda; ii) blunt the diversion of trade cooperation initiatives to RTAs; iii) allow more efficient differentiation in the levels of rights and obligations among a community of highly diverse economies; and iv) promote greater efficiency in multilaterally-based negotiations on trade rules, and perhaps, sectoral market access agreements.
An Empirical Assessment of the Economic Effects of WTO Accession and its Commitments
Besides facilitating access to the world market, WTO accession negotiations entail a process of domestic reforms that are expected to improve the supply side of acceding economies. However, measuring the actual impact of accession remains an empirical debate.
The TRIPS Agreement and COVID-19
The WTO Secretariat has published a new information note about how the global intellectual property (IP) system relates to the COVID-19 pandemic and potential contributions it could make to efforts to address it. The note provides an overview of IP-related measures taken by WTO members and other stakeholders since the start of the crisis.
A ‘New Trade’ Theory of GATT/WTO Negotiations
I develop a novel theory of GATT/WTO negotiations. This theory provides new answers to two prominent questions in the trade policy literature: first, what is the purpose of trade negotiations? And second, what is the role played by the fundamental GATT/WTO principles of reciprocity and nondiscrimination? Relative to the standard terms-of-trade theory of GATT/WTO negotiations, my theory makes two main contributions: first, it builds on a ‘new trade’ model rather than the neoclassical trade model and therefore sheds new light on GATT/WTO negotiations between similar countries. Second, it relies on a production relocation externality rather than the terms-of-trade externality and therefore demonstrates that the terms-of-trade externality is not the only trade policy externality, which can be internalized in GATT/WTO negotiations.
Why do Trade Finance Gaps Persist
Trade finance shortfalls now appear regularly. Does this matter for trade expansion and economic development in developing countries? Global trade finance has resumed following the 2009 global financial crisis. However, the pattern of recovery has been uneven across countries and categories of firms. The recovery has been robust for the main routes of trade and for large trading companies. By contrast, access to trade finance remains costly and scarce in countries which have the strongest potential for trade expansion. We introduce new data from a global survey of firms to argue that real shortfalls are exacerbated by perception gaps in a way that has enabled market failures to persist. This has troubling implications most directly through its effect on the ability for small firms to benefit from the reallocation of production and investment within global supply chains.
Use of the WTO Trade Dispute Settlement Mechanism by the Latin American Countries
The WTO's Dispute Settlement Mechanism (DSM) has been hailed as a fundamental aspect of the Multilateral Trading System for developing countries. At the same time developing countries face many challenges to ensure their effective participation in the mechanism. This paper presents statistical evidence of how Latin-American countries have been very active in their use of the DSM, especially when their use of the mechanism is compared to their participation in world trade. This paper also analyses why, to a large extent, Latin American countries have overcome the challenges of participating in the DSM; and have done so by coming up with innovative and creative solutions, without deviating from the guidelines established by WTO rules.
Developing & Delivering COVID-19 Vaccines Around the World
The WTO Secretariat has published a new information note on trade-related issues for COVID-19 vaccine production, manufacturing and deployment. The note, entitled “Developing and delivering COVID-19 vaccines around the world,” explores how trade policy can play its part in ensuring the rapid roll-out of vaccines against COVID-19.
Developing Countries in the WTO Services Negotiations
The aim of this paper is to analyse developing countries’ participation so far in the current round of services negotiations under the Doha Development Agenda. The paper analyses developing countries’ negotiating positions, as evidenced by their multilateral negotiating proposals; their initial offers; and, to the extent allowed by the incomplete and sketchy information available, their participation in bilateral market access negotiations. A number of basic themes are raised: the essential role of services for economic development; the high costs imposed by trade protection; the benefits of liberalization; the need to make use of the WTO forum to enhance credibility and sustain domestic regulatory reform programmes; the challenges of regulatory reform and the importance of appropriate sequencing; and the benefits arising from seeking further market access overseas in those areas where developing countries have a comparative advantage.
Trade and Fisheries
In this report we first give a brief overview of trade in seafood and seafood production. We then review the basic bioeconomic theory of the fishery and pinpoint why fisheries are different from most other industries. We next review the theoretical literature on trade and renewable resources that shows how unconventional outcomes from trade liberalization can emerge. Given this background, we discuss the most important policy issues in relation to seafood and trade, including sections on managing the global commons and domestic trends in management. In the final section, we discuss specific issues that are germane to the WTO and its rules.
Trade Costs in the Time of Global Pandemic
The WTO Secretariat has published a new information note warning of possible increases to trade costs due to COVID-19 disruptions. The note examines the pandemic’s impact on key components of trade costs, particularly those relating to travel and transport, trade policy, uncertainty, and identifies areas where higher costs may persist even after the pandemic is contained.
ICT, Access to Services and Wage Inequality
This paper discusses how information and communication technology (ICT) affects the quality and reach of consumer services. These services need to be provided locally, but consist of several components, some of which can be digitised and transmitted over long distances. A general equilibrium model is developed and numerical simulations in a stylised two-factor, two-region, centre-periphery setting are presented. Trade in intermediate services improves the quality of consumer services enormously in the periphery, but may reduce the quality at the centre. Trade in intermediate services also has a dramatic impact on skilled workers’ wages in the periphery, both relative to unskilled workers in their own region and relative to skilled workers at the centre and leads to a more equal distribution of income both between the centre and the periphery and within the periphery.
Infrastructure and Trade
This paper explores the role that quality of infrastructure has on a country's trade performance, estimating a gravity model that incorporates bilateral tariffs and a number of indicators for the quality of infrastructure. The paper looks at the impact of the quality of infrastructure (road, airport, port and telecommunication, and the time required for customs clearance) on total bilateral trade and on trade in the automotive, clothing and textile sectors. In order to obtain unbiased estimators, multilateral resistances for tariffs and remoteness are introduced in the gravity equation. Moreover, the robustness of the results is tested by estimating a fixed-effect model, where bilateral indexes of the quality of infrastructure are included. The results can be summarised in four main findings: (i) bilateral tariffs, generally neglected in gravity regression of bilateral flows, have a significant negative impact on trade; (ii) quality of infrastructure is an important determinant of trade performance; (iii) port efficiency appears to have the largest impact on trade among all indicators of infrastructure; (iv) timeliness and access to telecommunication are relatively more important for export competitiveness in the clothing and automotive sector respectively.
Intellectual Property Provisions in Regional Trade Agreements
This is a revision and update of "Intellectual Property Provisions in Regional Trade Agreements" by Valdés and Runyowa (2012). This paper adjusts the methodology applied to assess the intellectual property (IP) provisions contained in regional trade agreements (RTAs) and the aggregation of such provisions into groups; it also updates the RTAs surveyed, from 194 in November 2010 to 245 in February 2014. New information contained in this revision relates to three IP-related investment and non-violation provisions in RTAs. The methodological revisions and new information result in changes to the assessment of the IP content of certain RTAs while the update reveals a growing and increasingly complex network of RTAs with IP content. This revision also provides new insights into possible improvements to the methodological toolkit for analysing IP in RTAs. The paper assembles detailed information about the IP provisions contained in active RTAs notified to the WTO. The goal was to expand beyond the more commonly studied RTAs, to review the full array of agreements notified to the WTO and thus to enable consideration of the implications of this diverse range of norm-setting activity for the multilateral system. Mapping of the IP content in RTAs involving parties from all regions and levels of development is necessary to better understand crosscutting trends in RTAs, and how all the parts of the international IP framework influence each other. The methodology followed involved surveying each RTA in the sample to determine whether it made reference to any of 32 different IP-related provisions. Two of the three IP-related provisions new to this revision and update are investment-related IP provisions, while the other concerns dispute settlement for non-violation claims. The relevant provisions are discussed in detail and summary statistics used to identify patterns over time and by continent, level of economic development and selected traders. The number of IP provisions in each RTA is then used to classify agreements according to their level of IP content. The first significant identified trend is the acceleration in the conclusion of RTAs with IP provisions after the creation of the WTO and the entry into force of the WTO TRIPS Agreement. A significant proportion of those RTAs contain some type of IP provision, but the number and type of those provisions vary widely across agreements. A majority of the RTAs surveyed include general IP provisions, while a smaller proportion contains explicit provisions on specific fields of IP law, such as geographical indications, patents, trademarks and copyright. The inclusion of even more detailed provisions elaborating on specific areas of IP law is less common. As a result, the actual IP content of RTAs differs greatly across the sample, with slightly less than half of these agreements found to havesubstantive IP standards that can be classified as moderate or high. The RTAs containing a high level of IP provisions are characterized by a hub-and-spoke architecture in which the wording and structure of IP provisions converged around the RTAs of specific countries or blocs. The largest systems are grouped around the EFTA, the European Union and the United States. The hub-and-spoke architecture seems to have encouraged the convergence of domestic IP regimes among the respective RTA signatories. The mechanics of this potentially crucial process and its economic implications require further investigation.
Regional Integration in Africa
This paper examines the history of regional integration in Africa, what has motivated it, the different initiatives that African governments have pursued, the nature of the integration process, and the current challenges. Regional integration is seen as a rational response to the difficulties faced by a continent with many small national markets and landlocked countries. As a result, African governments have concluded a very large number of regional integration arrangements, several of which have significant membership overlap. While characterized by ambitious targets, they have a dismally poor implementation record. Part of the problem may lie in the paradigm of linear market integration, marked by stepwise integration of goods, labour and capital markets, and eventually monetary and fiscal integration. This tends to focus on border measures such as the import tariff. However, supply-side constraints may be more important. A deeper integration agenda that includes services, investment, competition policy and other behind-the-border issues can address the national-level supply-side constraints far more effectively than an agenda which focuses almost exclusively on border measures.
Does Trade Openness Contribute to Driving Financing Flows for Development?
Trade has been recognized in the 2030 development Agenda as well as in the Addis Ababa Agenda for Action as an important means for the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Trade Policies Supporting Women’s Economic Empowerment
This paper looks at the various trade policies WTO Members have put into place to foster women’s economic empowerment. The analysis below is based on the information provided by WTO Members as part of their Trade Policy Review (TPRs) process from 2014 to 2018. Reports from the WTO Secretariat, governments as well as the question and answer sessions were examined for the purpose of this paper.
Deep Integration and Production Networks
In this paper, the two way relationship between deep integration and production networks trade is investigated. Deep integration is captured by a set of indices constructed in terms of policy areas covered in preferential trade agreements. An augmented gravity equation is estimated to investigate the impact of deep integration on production networks. The results show that on average, signing deeper agreements increases production networks trade between member countries by almost 35 percentage points. In addition, the impact of deep integration is higher for trade in automobile parts and information and technology products compared with textiles products. To analyse whether higher levels of network trade increase the likelihood of signing deeper agreements the literature on the determinants of preferential trade agreements is followed. The estimation results show that, after taking into account other PTAs determinants, a ten per cent increase in the share of production network trade over total trade increases the depth of an agreement by approximately 6 percentage points. In addition, the probability of signing deeper agreements is higher for country pairs involved in North-South production sharing and for countries belonging to the Asia region.
How do natural disasters affect services trade?
This paper is the first in the literature to examine the impact of natural disasters on trade in services. We measure the magnitude of natural disasters using two distinct sets of variables and quantify the effect of natural disasters on trade in services using a structural gravity model.
Endowments, Power, and Democracy
In spite of their growing importance in international trade as well as in bilateral and multilateral trade negotiations, services have only attracted limited attention from researchers interested in determinants of trade policies and trade cooperation. This paper seeks to account for countries' varying levels of market access commitments under the multilateral General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). I develop an argument suggesting how levels of democracy and factor endowments are associated with more commitments. The empirical analysis supports these propositions, and also suggests that relative size, as well as regulatory capacity, are positively linked to GATS commitments.
The “China Shock” Revisited
We exploit a decomposition of gross trade flows into their value added components to reassess the relationship between increased imports from China and manufacturing jobs in US local labour markets following the seminal paper of Autor, Dorn, and Hanson (2013, ADH).
The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and International Trade
This paper surveys a wide body of economic literature on the relationship between currencies and trade. Two main issues are investigated: the impact on international trade of exchange rate volatility and of currency misalignments. On average, exchange rate volatility has a negative (even if not large) impact on trade flows. The extent of this effect depends on a number of factors, including the existence of hedging instruments, the structure of production, and the degree of economic integration across countries. Exchange rate misalignments are predicted to have short-run effects in models with price rigidities, but the exact impact depends on a number of features, such as the pricing strategy of firms engaging in international trade and the importance of global production networks. This effect is predicted to disappear in the long-run, unless some other distortion characterizes the economy. Empirical results confirm that short-run effects can exist, but their size and persistence over time are not consistent across different studies.
Liberalizing Financial Services Trade in Africa
This paper analyses the possible gains from regional and multilateral liberalization of financial services trade for African countries taking into account the implications of such liberalization for financial regulation and capital account liberalization. It also describes existing efforts to integrate financial markets within four African regions (WAEMU, CEMAC, SADC and COMESA) and discusses the existing GATS commitments of the relevant countries with respect to financial services. Although the regions differ significantly, there is scope for further regional integration in all of them. Significant scope also exists for further multilateral liberalization of financial services, in particular with respect to Mode 3.
Least-Developed Countries, Transfer of Technology and the Trips Agreement
This paper examines the background of Article 66.2 of the TRIPS Agreement, the nature of this obligation on developed country Members that pertains to the promotion of technology transfer to LDC Members and how it is being implemented and how such implementation is being monitored in the TRIPS Council.
Footloose Global Value Chains
The geography of global value chains (GVCs) depends crucially on trade costs between countries hosting various stages of production. Some stages might be more sensitive to trade costs than others. In this paper, we exploit a value-added decomposition of bilateral trade flows to distinguish low value-added GVC trade typically associated with production stages such as assembly, from high value-added GVC trade associated with stages such as R&D and design. We test the hypothesis that low value-added stages will more easily reroute given changes in trade costs between importing and exporting countries than high value-added stages.
Preferential and Non-Preferential Trade Flows in World Trade
This paper quantifies the extent of preferential trade as a share of total world trade in different regions of the world and for two periods. Results show that: i) preferential trade represented 40% of world trade in the period 1988-1992 and it slightly increased to 42% during the period 1993-1997; ii) during the second period, agricultural products generally benefited more from the existence of preferential trade agreements than industrial products (maybe due to GATT-exemption); iii) the regional distribution of preferential trade is relatively uneven with a significant share of preferential trade in Western Europe (around 70 per cent), relatively low values in the Western Hemisphere (around 25 per cent), very low shares in Asia and Oceania (around 4 per cent) and average values in the rest-of-the-world (Eastern Europe and Africa); iv) the largest increase in shares of preferential trade between the two periods has occurred in the Western Hemisphere and in Eastern-Europe and Africa; v) at the country level there is an inverted-u-shape relationship between the share of preferential trade and the size and GDP per capita of individual countries; vi) countries which are highly open to trade tend to have a larger share of preferential trade on total trade in the period 1993-1997, suggesting that preferential and non-preferential trade can be seen as complements.
Mapping the Tariff Waters
Tariff water –the difference between bound and applied duties– provides relevant information on domestic trade policy and WTO trade negotiations. This paper examines the general and sectoral tariff structure of 120 economies, using exploratory data analysis.
The Development of Trade Policies in the Asia and Pacific Region Over the Past 30 Years Since 1989
This paper reviews the main developments of trade and related policies and measures in the Asia and Pacific region during the 30 years since establishment, in 1989, of the Trade Policy Review Mechanism (TPRM). The objectives of the TPRM include facilitating the smooth functioning of the multilateral trading system by enhancing the transparency of WTO Members' trade policies.
Use of Currencies in International Trade
The paper reviews a number of issues related to the use of currencies in international trade, more than one decade after the introduction of the euro and shortly after steps taken by the Chinese authorities to liberalize the use of the RMB in off-shore markets. Trade is an important factor in establishing a currency as an international currency, notably by fulfilling the transaction/medium of exchange and unit of account motives of currency demand. A well prepared liberalization of currency use for international trade and foreign direct investment transactions can even be helpful in achieving the international investment and reserve currency status. While in the distant past the later was also linked to preponderance of a country in trade markets, it is now linked to the prevalence of the currency in international financial transactions, which supposes that the country in question engages at least partly in some liberalization of capital account transactions. This paper shows theoretical and practical reasons explaining the current dominance of the US dollar and the euro in the invoicing of international trade. There is little doubt, though, that in the medium-to-long term the RMB will become a major currency of settlement in international trade. This is not only the current direction of government policy but also that of markets, as evidenced by the rapid expansion of off-shore trade payments in that currency. In the meantime, though, the US dollar and the euro are enjoying a nearduopoly as settlement and invoicing currencies in international trade. The stability of this duopoly is enhanced by a number of factors recently highlighted by economic analysis: coalescing, "thick externalities" and scarcity of international currencies are useful to explain that, until such time that RMB payments match at least the share of China in global trade, the US dollar and of the euro will remain the main currencies in the invoicing and payment of international trade. Section 1 looks at the factors that determine the use of currencies in the invoicing and settlement of international trade. Section 2 looks at the actual reality of currency use for international trade flows, and short-term prospects for the development of a possible alternative to the use of the US dollar and the euro (in particular in Asia), the RMB.
Competition Agency Guidelines and Policy Initiatives Regarding the Application of Competition Law Vis-À-Vis Intellectual Property
Competition agency guidelines, policy statements and related advocacy are an important vehicle for policy expression and the guidance of firms across the full spectrum of anti-competitive practices and market conduct.
Fog in GATS Commitments
The creation of the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), in the Uruguay Round, and its entry into force in 1995 marked a new stage in the history of the multilateral system. It was motivated essentially by the rapid expansion of international services trade within an increasingly open environment in many countries. Given the peculiarities of services trade, including the intangible nature of the products concerned and the need for direct contact between supplier and user in many cases, the Agreement contains a variety of conceptual innovations, including its extension to modes of supply beyond conventional cross-border trade (consumption abroad, commercial presence, and presence of natural persons) and its coverage, and legitimization, of various types of non-tariff restrictions. In turn, the new concepts needed time to be absorbed by the ministries and agencies involved in services trade. Further, the positive-list, or bottom-up, approach to scheduling trade commitments under the GATS meant that great flexibility was given to Members in selecting the sectors concerned and specifying the levels of access provided under individual modes. Thus, not surprisingly, the schedules that emerged from the Uruguay Round, which still account for the majority of current commitments, contain a variety of unclear or superfluous entries that may cause interpretation problems. Their solution could contribute significantly to the clarity and comparability of access obligations across sectors and WTO Members. The scheduling conventions agreed for the Doha Round thus provide specifically for the possibility of technical refinements that leave the substance of commitments unchanged. However, not only was this possibility used more sparingly to date than might have been expected, but additional flaws would be introduced if some current offers were to enter into effect. The following discussion, with a focus on a particular group of entries (market access via commercial presence), tries to explain the scope for such refinements and develop a clearer picture of the areas where further action might be needed.