Economic research and trade policy analysis

The WTO’s “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics” analyses recent global trade developments. Breakdowns of merchandise and commercial services trade by sector and region are provided, together with details on leading traders. The report is timed to coincide with the release of the WTO’s latest quarterly and annual trade statistics, which can be downloaded from the WTO’s online database at stats.wto.org.

The report of the Joint Task Force on Climate Action, Carbon Pricing, and Policy Spillovers, with participation by the IMF, OECD, UNCTAD, World Bank, and WTO, makes four main contributions. First, it reflects on a common understanding of carbon pricing metrics which inform on the incentives to decarbonize and on cross-country variation in carbon prices, a key determinant of international spillover effects and competitiveness concerns. Second, the report analyzes the appropriate mixes of climate change mitigation policies, emphasizing the pivotal role of carbon pricing as the only policy implementing the polluter pays principle while generating revenues. Third, it analyzes how international organizations can support the coordination of policies to maximize positive and limit negative cross-border spillovers from climate change mitigation policies. Finally, it discusses how such coordination can help to scale up climate action by closing the transparency gap, the implementation gap, and the ambition gap.

Cross‑border data flows are the lifeblood of today’s social and economic interactions, but they also raise a range of new challenges, including for privacy and data protection, national security, cybersecurity, digital protectionism and regulatory reach. This has led to a surge in regulation conditioning (or prohibiting) its flow or mandating that data be stored or processed domestically (data localisation). However, the economic implications of these measures are not well understood. This report provides estimates on what is at stake, highlighting that full fragmentation could reduce global GDP by 4.5%. It also underscores the benefits associated with open regimes with safeguards which could see global GDP increase by 1.7%. In a world where digital fragmentation is growing, global discussions on these issues can help harness the benefits of an open and safeguarded internet.

This paper explores the application of Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques to automate Harmonized System (HS) tariff line transposition, employing a three-stage process: unique 1:1 tariff code matching (Round 1), exact description matching (Round 2), and “smart” description matching (Round 3) using Artificial Intelligence (AI) and lexical similarity methods paired with harmonized 6-digit concordance and cosine similarity. Similarity is calculated using either Term Frequency Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF) vectors or Sentence-BERT (SBERT) embeddings, comparing two scenarios: a straightforward case (Economy A) with standardized descriptions, and a complex case (Economy B), with more detailed technical descriptions.

Can the flow of goods, services, and ideas build bridges where conflict once prevailed? If so, under whatcircumstances? The World Trade Organization (WTO) stands for a predictable, rules-based system based on the principle of non-discrimination. When the predecessor to the WTO – the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade – was established some 70 years ago, conflict among nations was at an historic low, following World War II. In the changed global political landscape of today, geopolitical tensions, disruptions to trade and increasing concerns about economic inequality have come to the fore, challenging the foundations of multilateral trade relationships, and trade cooperation more generally. Pathways to Sustainable Trade and Peace is the first WTO publication dedicated to an in-depth exploration of the complex relationship between trade and peace. The publication examines a number of critical questions. How do trade and peace interact? Can trade be leveraged to foster economic development and stability? What can governments and other stakeholders do to foster positive interaction between trade and peace? The volume focuses specifically but not exclusively on fragile and conflict-affected economies, including case studies and analyses from various policy angles.

The WTO’s “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics” presents the WTO Secretariat’s forecasts for world trade in 2025 and 2026. Breakdowns of merchandise and commercial services trade by sector and region are provided, together with details on leading traders. An analytical chapter looks at the limits of trade policy in influencing trade imbalances. The report is timed to coincide with the release of the WTO’s latest quarterly and annual trade statistics, which can be downloaded from the WTO’s online database at stats.wto.org.

Le rapport “Perspectives et statistiques du commerce mondial” de l’OMC présente les prévisions du Secrétariat de l’OMC concernant le commerce mondial pour 2025 et 2026. Il contient des ventilations du commerce des marchandises et du commerce des services commerciaux par secteur et par région, ainsi que des renseignements détaillés concernant les principaux pays importateurs et exportateurs. Un chapitre analytique examine les effets économiques de l’incertitude dans le domaine de la politique commerciale. La publication du rapport coïncide avec celle des dernières statistiques commerciales trimestrielles et annuelles de l’OMC, qui peuvent être téléchargées à partir de la base de données en ligne de l’Organisation à l’adresse suivante: stats.wto.org.

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the integral role of international trade in responding to the global health crisis. All communities depended to some extent on trade for medical products, related services and vaccines. In particular, the pandemic accentuated the mutual benefit from the core principles of the multilateral trading system, especially the benefits of open and well-functioning international production and supply chains, and non-discriminatory measures. This publication looks into the WTO’s response to the pandemic in terms of four key areas: monitoring the flow of goods related to COVID-19, working towards a coordinated and effective international response to the pandemic, conducting policy and statistical analysis with other intergovernmental organizations, and analysing the lessons learned from the pandemic to shape a blueprint for future international cooperation. The publication examines how WTO members negotiated a framework to guide and consolidate the WTO’s response to the pandemic, to enhance the flow of practical knowledge, and to help render the multilateral trading system better prepared for future crises. Negotiations resulted in the Ministerial Declaration on the WTO Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic and Preparedness for Future Pandemics adopted at the 12th Ministerial Conference in June 2022. The importance of this work was confirmed in the Ministerial Declaration issued in March 2024 at MC13, which encouraged relevant WTO bodies to continue their work on reviewing the lessons learned from the pandemic and on building effective solutions in case of future pandemics.

Le Rapport sur le commerce mondial 2020 a été établi sous la responsabilité générale de Xiaozhun Yi, Directeur général adjoint de l’OMC, et de Robert Koopman, Directeur de la Division de la recherche économique et des statistiques. La rédaction du Rapport a été coordonnée par Marc Auboin et Ankai Xu. Les auteurs du rapport sont Marc Auboin, Marc Bacchetta, Cosimo Beverelli, Eddy Bekkers, Kian Cassehgari Posada, Emmanuelle Ganne, John Hancock, Kathryn Lundquist, Gabrielle Marceau, José-Antonio Monteiro, Roberta Piermartini, Stela Rubínová, Victor Stolzenburg, Ankai Xu et Qing Ye (Division de la recherche économique et des statistiques).