Recherche économique et analyse des politiques commerciales
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Global Trade Outlook and Statistics
The WTO’s “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics” analyses recent global trade developments up to the fourth quarter of 2023 and presents the organization’s forecasts for world trade in 2024 and 2025. Breakdowns of merchandise and commercial services trade by sector and region are provided together with details on leading traders. The report is timed to coincide with the release of the WTO’s latest quarterly and annual trade statistics which can be downloaded from the WTO’s online database at stats.wto.org.
A Global Framework for Climate Mitigation Policies
The Trade Effects of a New Agreement on Services Domestic Regulation
Tariff spillovers and new rules for multilateral tariff negotiations
World Trade Report 2023
The establishment of the multilateral trading system over seven decades ago was based on the understanding that interdependence and cooperation contribute to peace and shared prosperity. More recently however new challenges such as geopolitical tensions rising inequalities and climate change have led to fears that globalization exposes countries to excessive risks. Such fears have increased pressures to unwind trading relationships and turn to unilateral policies through a process of fragmentation. This year’s World Trade Report examines the benefits of integration into world trade as well as the risks of fragmentation. It shows that trade has proved to be a source of security and peace a driver of poverty reduction and a critical tool for addressing climate change. The Report argues that to make our economies more secure inclusive and sustainable re-globalization – or integrating more people economies and pressing issues into global trade and strengthening multilateral cooperation – is a much more effective solution to global challenges than fragmentation. Global problems need global solutions meaning that today’s world needs more cooperation not less. A reinvigorated multilateral trading system overseen by the WTO has an important role to play in this process.
The reshaping of global trade
This chapter shows that despite difficulties in the global trade policy landscape global trade flows have been resilient and continue to evolve in a direction that is more sustainable and inclusive. Narratives surrounding the benefits of globalization have turned more sceptical in the past decade. These narratives have started to reflect in global trade as the first policy-driven fractures appear in the system. Yet the digital revolution continues to promote economic integration by facilitating trade in goods and even more so in services. There is still significant potential for trade to contribute further to the growth of the world economy and to bring further benefits to developing economies via the expansion of global value chains. However if the untapped potential of new trade flows is to be accessed policies must remain outward-looking.
Executive summary
The multilateral trading system overseen by the World Trade Organization was created just over 75 years ago based on the vision that fostering interdependence among economies would play a crucial role in achieving peace and prosperity. This vision had emerged as a central lesson from three disastrous decades of deglobalization marked by two world wars the Great Depression and political extremism. For three-quarters of a century it has guided policymakers as they laid the foundations for the integrated world we inhabit today.
Re-globalization to reduce poverty and inequality
This chapter discusses how fragmentation could have a negative impact on growth poverty and inequality and how re-globalization could help to ensure that the gains from trade are spread more broadly both between and within economies. Opening up trade in agriculture and services and developing new e-commerce rules could boost growth reduce poverty and make the global economy more inclusive. The WTO can help to facilitate a more inclusive global trading system by updating trade rules at the multilateral level and by working with other international organizations to ensure more people benefit from world trade.
Re-globalization to promote environmental sustainability
This chapter examines the complex interplay between trade and environmental sustainability. It evaluates the potential risks associated with a fragmented approach to climate change and other environmental challenges and it explores the benefits of re-globalization – or greater international cooperation – for sustainability in the context of various types of environmental policies and their cross-border effects. The chapter also emphasizes the critical importance of multilateral cooperation in enabling effective environmental protection while fostering equitable global growth.
Foreword by the WTO Director-General
The post-1945 international economic order was built on the idea that interdependence among nations through increased trade and economic ties would foster peace and shared prosperity. For most of the past 75 years this idea guided policymakers and helped lay the foundation for an unprecedented era of growth higher living standards and poverty reduction. Today this vision is under threat as is the future of an open and predictable global economy.
The impact of security concerns on trade
A series of crises over the past years has changed the perceptions about trade and interdependence. What used to be considered as critical to economic progress and security is now sometimes perceived as a source of risk that needs to be limited. Moreover security concerns are no longer exclusively expressed in relation to conflict but encompass the much wider notion of economic security. As a result security concerns percolate through trade policy more widely. This chapter highlights that despite disruptions in global supply chains trade remains a source of security especially when embedded in a multilateral rules-based system. It argues that fragmentation would weaken security and increase the likelihood of conflict while re-globalization is a more promising avenue to strengthen security going forward.
Introduction
The ideas that shaped today’s globalized world were a response to the disastrous deglobalized world of the first half of the 20th century. Having seen how a closed and divided world economy contributed to economic depression conflict and ultimately the Second World War the post-war architects resolved to build an open and integrated world economy instead. Freer trade would deliver shared growth and development. Economic interdependence would give countries a stake in each other’s success. International rules and institutions would promote stability trust and collaboration. The antidote to zero-sum economic nationalism was positivesum global economic cooperation.
Conclusion
For almost seven decades now economies around the world have been opening their markets to each other recognizing that interdependence and cooperation create shared prosperity. However severe challenges such as the financial crisis of 2008-09 the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine now threaten to undermine this vision highlighting a number of risks inherent in a globalized world. As a result some have begun to question the benefits of globalization. The implication of this way of thinking is a more fragmented less integrated world. Fortunately this has not happened yet. There is still time to act but as this report shows the changing narrative on globalization has already translated into heightened tensions and first signs of geoeconomic fragmentation in trade.
Acknowledgements and Disclaimer
The World Trade Report 2023 was prepared under the general responsibility and guidance of Anabel González WTO Deputy Director-General and Ralph Ossa Director of the Economic Research and Statistics Division. Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala Chief of Staff Bright Okogu and Trineesh Biswas from the Office of the Director-General provided valuable advice and guidance. The report was coordinated by Alexander Keck and Victor Stolzenburg.
Trade finance in the Mekong region
Cambodia the Lao People’s Democratic Republic and Viet Nam – the so-called Mekong-3 - have experienced rapid trade growth over the last ten years. However growth could be boosted even further by improving access to trade finance such as loans and guarantees for locally owned businesses seeking to trade globally. This publication presents the results of two surveys undertaken by the IFC to determine the level of trade finance available to businesses in the Mekong region. An analysis of the data conducted by the WTO explores the potential impact of an expansion in trade finance and how this could lead to greater integration into world trade and more inclusiveness with increased participation in global supply chains by small businesses and women-owned enterprises. The publication is intended to serve as a guide to how domestic financial sectors can reorient their operations to support cross-border trade and enhanced access to global markets.