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WTO Working Papers
WTO working papers usually represent research in progress. Such research may be conducted in the preparation of WTO Secretariat reports, studies or other material for WTO members. The papers are circulated for comment because the WTO considers critical review of professional research to be extremely important.
1 - 20 of 286 results
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The future of global value chains and the role of the WTO
Authors: World Trade Organization and Uri DadushPublication Date: August 2022More LessDisruptions to global value chains (GVCs) — caused by conflicts, natural disasters, and accidents that close transport routes — and that affect specific regions or sectors, are not unusual. However, in recent years and amid the Covid-19 pandemic, they have become more frequent and severe. High profile, sizeable, and repeated disruptions raise pressing questions: Is the breakdown in many GVCs a temporary glitch, or a permanent phenomenon? Have GVCs become endemically more accident prone, and why? And if so, are firms going to rely less on them? If a sustained withdrawal from GVCs occurs, how will business models be reshaped, and what will be the consequences for growth and inflation? How will the global trading system be affected? In short, policymakers want to know, what is the future of GVCs?
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Comparing different approaches to tackle the challenges of global carbon pricing
Authors: World Trade Organization, Eddy Bekkers and Gianmarco CariolaPublication Date: July 2022More LessClimate change mitigation faces two main policy challenges: the need for global cooperation to tackle the collective action problem and the need to share the burden of global carbon pricing fair way following the principle of common but differentiated responsibility (CBRD). In this paper we explore the best ways to incentivize regions to reduce their CO2 emissions while minimizing the welfare losses for low-income countries using simulations with a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model.
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The Impact of Geopolitical Conflicts on Trade, Growth, and Innovation
Authors: World Trade Organization, Carlos Góes and Eddy BekkersPublication Date: July 2022More LessGeopolitical conflicts have increasingly been a driver of trade policy. We study the potential effects of global and persistent geopolitical conflicts on trade, technological innovation, and economic growth. In conventional trade models the welfare costs of such conflicts are modest. We build a multi-sector multi-region general equilibrium model with dynamic sector-specific knowledge diffusion, which magnifies welfare losses of trade conflicts. Idea diffusion is mediated by the input-output structure of production, such that both sector cost shares and import trade shares characterize the source distribution of ideas.
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Preference utilization in the global economy
Authors: World Trade Organization, Gianmarco Cariola and Rainer LanzPublication Date: May 2022More LessThis paper analyses the determinants of preference utilization using a novel WTO dataset that allows us to measure the underutilization of preferences across several importers, exporters and products over time. Building on the previous literature, we confirm that preference utilization is increasing with the size of exports, preference margin and geographical and linguistic proximity. We find that utilization rates tend to be higher for reciprocal preferences compared to non-reciprocal preferences, and that the incentive to use preferences increases with the share of competitors’ exports that is eligible for preferential treatment.
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Applying import-adjustmed demand methodology to trade analysis during the COVID-19 crisis
Authors: World Trade Organization, Marc Auboin and Floriana BorinoPublication Date: March 2022More LessIn this paper, we estimated the standard (macro-economic) import equation over the period 1995-2021Q2, using an import intensity-adjusted measure of aggregate demand (IAD) calculated from input-output tables at country level, and compared the results with regressions using GDP. Initially introduced by Bussière (2013), this "synthetic" concept of IAD was perfected, inter alia, by the IMF (2016) and by us (2017), with a view to explaining the "missing" trade flows unpredicted by GDP-based import models during the trade collapse of 2009 and subsequent recovery from it.
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B2B E-commerce marketplaces and MSMES
Authors: World Trade Organization, Maxime Ladrière, Kathryn Lundquist and Qing YePublication Date: March 2022More LessIn theory, e-commerce marketplaces connect buyers and sellers, open trade opportunities, and reduce transaction costs thereby creating opportunities for more inclusive trade and even GVC participation, especially for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). Further, there is some evidence that MSMEs are more likely to use e-commerce marketplaces than large firms given these websites reduce search frictions and transaction costs, which can be relatively more beneficial for smaller firms.
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COVID-19 vs. GFC
Authors: World Trade Organization, Socrates Kraido Majune and Kemal TürkcanPublication Date: March 2022More LessThis study describes trade margins (intensive and extensive) and establishes determinants of the mid-point export and import growth during the global financial crisis (GFC) and COVID-19 pandemic by relying on Kenya’s monthly customs transaction data (at 6-digit level of Harmonized System) for the period January 2006–June 2020. Exports fell during the two crises, of which the intensive margin was responsible for the drop during GFC while the extensive margin dominated the COVID-19 era. Imports are mainly driven by the extensive margin which grew during GFC but declined during the pandemic.
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The impact of LDC graduation on trade
Authors: World Trade Organization, Eddy Bekkers and Gianmarco CariolaPublication Date: February 2022More LessSeveral Least-Developed Countries (LDCs) will graduate from the LDC status in the coming decade implying that they will lose preferential access to export markets. We quantify the expected impact of LDC graduation on exports of graduating and non-graduating LDCs incorporating detailed preference utilization data in a partial equilibrium model. We compare the results under actual and full preference utilization rates. Separately, we explore how underutilization of tariff preferences affects the exports of countries benefiting from such preferences.
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Communication break down
Publication Date: February 2022More LessAlthough a growing number of regional trade agreements (RTAs) include telecommunications provisions, the collection and systematization of information on telecommunications provisions in RTAs remain limited. This paper addresses this gap by mapping and reviewing the different types of provisions on telecommunications found in RTAs that have been notified to the World Trade Organization (WTO).
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Innovation and patenting activities of COVID-19 vaccines in WTO members
Authors: World Trade Organization, Ting-Wei (Alex) Chiang and Xiaoping WuPublication Date: February 2022More LessThis working paper provides a statistical analysis of 74 patent families which cover subject matter relevant to ten COVID-19 vaccines. These vaccines have accounted for 99% of the global COVID-19 vaccine production as of 31 December 2021, comprising over ten billion doses.
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How do environmental policies affect green innovation and trade?
Authors: World Trade Organization, Francesco S. Bellelli and Ankai XuPublication Date: January 2022More LessThis study investigates how environmental policies impact trade and innovation in environmental goods. We make two major contributions to the economic debate. First, we extract a set of information from the WTO Environmental Database (EDB) through natural language processing techniques that could be useful for future research and policy analysis. Second, we use this data to test a set of economic hypotheses on how environmental measures impact environmental innovation and trade.
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Services Domestic Regulation
Publication Date: September 2021More LessServices is the fastest-growing sector of today's global economy and trade in services is the most dynamic segment of world trade. However, its potential remains constrained by a variety of barriers: trade costs are estimated to be almost double those in goods, and more than 40% of trade costs are accounted for by regulation-related factors. Regulatory measures related to the permission to supply a service, i.e. those related to licensing and qualifications requirements and procedures, and technical standards, can particularly affect service suppliers' ability to trade. With a view to mitigating the unintended trade-restrictive effects of such measures, since 2017, a group of Members has been negotiating a set of regulatory disciplines in the context of the Joint Initiative on Services Domestic Regulation.
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Assessing the Supply Chain Effect of Natural Disasters
Publication Date: July 2021More LessThis paper uses Chinese firm level data to detect the international propagation of adverse shocks triggered by the US hurricane season in 2005. We provide evidence that Chinese processing manufacturers with tight trade linkages to the United States reduced their intermediate imports from the United States between July and October 2005.
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“Agricultural Products” and “Fishery Products” in the GATT and WTO
Publication Date: May 2021More LessThe WTO Agreement on Agriculture applies to those “agricultural products” as defined in its Annex 1. This definition expressly excludes “fish and fish products” from the scope of application of the Agreement. In light of this exclusion, the paper is intended to provide a historical account of the relationship between agricultural products and fishery products in the context of the negotiations leading to and during the GATT period up to the conclusion of the Uruguay Round, and some of its implications for WTO negotiations.
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Buena Vista Social Corporate Responsibility Provisions in Regional Trade Agreements
Publication Date: March 2021More LessCorporate social responsibility (CSR) has become an integral part of many companies' business strategy. A detailed analysis of 579 RTAs, including 305 agreements currently in force and notified to the WTO (as of December 2020), reveals that a limited but increasing number of RTAs, namely 65 agreements, refer explicitly to CSR. These CSR-related provisions are particularly heterogeneous in terms of location in the RTA, language, scope and commitments.
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The Impact of Services Liberalization on Education
Publication Date: March 2021More LessThis paper studies the impact of services liberalization on education and the gender education gap at the district level in India. We focus on the time period 1987 to 1999 and three services sectors - banking, insurance and telecommunications - which were all state monopolies, have been heavily liberalized in the time frame studied, have relatively high shares of female employment and require high education investments. Our hypothesis is that the national-level liberalization spurred higher investment in education, particularly girls’ education, in districts with higher employment growth in these key services sectors.
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Africa’s Integration in the WTO Multilateral Trading System
Publication Date: March 2021More LessThe Marrakesh Agreement establishing the WTO recognizes the need for positive efforts designed to ensure that developing countries and especially the least developed among them secure a share in the growth in international trade commensurate with the needs of their economic development.This article discusses how the WTO contributes to facilitating Africa’s integration into the WTO multilateral trading system. It is argued that, while African countries are actively engaged in the work of the WTO, securing their economic and policy interests, some main challenges remain. These include the need to further diversify production, linking to the Global Value Chains and developing adequate infra-structures facilitating digital trade as a vehicle for economic growth.
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The Evolution of Gender-Related Provisions in Regional Trade Agreements
Publication Date: February 2021More LessRegional Trade agreements (RTAs) are sometimes considered as laboratories in which new types of provisions are negotiated to address recent trade-related issues. Although the inclusion of gender-related provisions in RTAs is not a recent phenomenon, only a limited but increasing number of RTAs refer explicitly to gender-related issues. These gender-related provisions are highly heterogeneous and differ in terms of location in the RTA, language, scope and commitments. Some of the most detailed gender-related provisions are found in stand-alone chapters on gender. Cooperation provisions on gender-related issues, including labour, health and social policy, remain the most common type of gender-related provisions found in RTAs.
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Hold the Line: The Evolution of Telecommunications Provisions in Regional Trade Agreements
Publication Date: February 2021More LessBased on the first comprehensive mapping of telecommunications provisions telecommunications in regional trade agreements (RTAs), this paper shows that telecommunications provisions in RTAs have evolved and expanded significantly over the years. While some provisions focus on information and communications technologies (ICT) infrastructure, policy and investment, other provisions address telecommunications services as well as standards and conformity assessment procedures of ICT equipment. The most detailed and comprehensive telecommunications provisions are found in stand-alone chapters, sections or annexes on telecommunications services. A network analysis further reveals that telecommunications provisions remain highly heterogenous.
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The WTO Global Trade Costs Index and Its Determinants
Publication Date: February 2021More LessThis study provides a decomposition of the WTO Global Trade Costs Index into five policy-relevant components: transport and travel costs; information and transaction costs; ICT connectedness; trade policy and regulatory differences; and governance quality. The WTO Global Trade Costs Index is based on a new methodology by Egger et al. (2021) that delivers directional trade cost estimates and sector-specific elasticities which are crucial for inferring trade costs from trade flows data. The resulting measure of trade costs includes all factors that burden foreign sales more than domestic ones. In this study, we run a sectoral regression analysis to determine what drives trade costs variation across partners and use the results to decompose the variation in trade costs in each sector.
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