Economic research and trade policy analysis
Acknowledgements
This volume has been produced under the WTO Chairs Programme (WCP), a WTO capacity-building programme launched upon the initiative of Hakim Ben Hammouda and Patrick Low in 2010. The WCP is jointly managed by the WTO’s Institute for Training and Technical Cooperation and Economic Research and Statistics Division under the direction of Bridget Chilala and Robert Teh, respectively. The editors thank Fatima Chaudhri and Gerardo Thielen for their contribution to the initial stages of this book project and Clémence Gros for editorial assistance. Anthony Martin and Helen Swain are thanked for managing the production process of the volume.
Gender Welfare Effects of Regional Trade Integration on Households in Ghana
Over the past two to three decades, a number of developing countries have pursued regional economic integration to harmonize trade policies and increase their weight in global trade. Economic integration, particularly in Africa, has also been seen as a way to diversify the structure of African economies, boost intra-African trade and investment, build supply capacity, and sustainably reduce poverty (Osakwe, 2015). These integration efforts have resulted in the creation of regional blocs such as the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), Common Market for East and Southern Africa (COMESA), Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC), Southern African Customs Union (SACU), and Arab Maghreb Union (AMU). The trade-related objectives of these blocs include the establishment of custom unions, with a common external tariff (CET) as a major trade policy instrument.
WTO accessions: A market access perspective on growth – the approach of the European Union
A strong multilateral trading system is vital to developing countries’ longterm interests both for its rulebook and for the market access that it guarantees in all key markets. Markets are increasingly located in developing countries. Indeed, for the first time in recent history, South–South trade outweighs North–South trade, even though barriers to South–South trade are much more significant than those to developed countries’ markets. Through their WTO accession, acceding economies can reap the benefits of more and better access to most world markets – that of the European Union being among the biggest.
Avant-propos
À lère numérique, un nombre croissant de gouvernements a adopté des politiques visant à stimuler la croissance grâce à linnovation et à la modernisation technologique. Les conséquences économiques intérieures liées à la pandémie de COVID-19 conduit les pays à renforcer ces politiques. Le présent rapport examine ces tendances ainsi que le rôle que peuvent jouer le commerce et lOMC. Il montre que la coopération internationale a un rôle important à jouer pour aider les pays à atteindre ces objectifs plus efficacement, tout en limitant autant que possible les retombées négatives des politiques nationales.
Introduction
The world is continually changing, driven by technological innovations that affect the way we live and do business. The history of the world economy is intimately linked to technological progress. The invention of the steam engine mechanized production, the discovery of electricity enabled mass production, and the rise of the internet made it possible to coordinate various production stages at a distance, leading to a fragmentation of production that gave rise to global value chains.
The Policy to Mitigate the Effects of the 2008 Global Crisis on Textile, Clothing, Leather and Footwear Jobs in Morocco
This chapter aims to analyse the short episode of labour market adjustment policy in Morocco, adopted as a response to the global crisis of 2008 by the Moroccan Government. It focuses on the rationale, implementation and effects of this policy on the resilience of firms, employment and workers in the textile, clothing, leather and footwear (TCLF) sector.
Subsidies and the WTO
We have discussed the economic arguments for and against different kinds of subsidization earlier in the Report. Economic analysis tells us that market failures of various kinds can sometimes be addressed efficiently with subsidies. It also tells us that subsidies can distort trade flows if they give an artificial competitive advantage to exporters or import-competing industries. Whether a subsidy is viewed as a desirable intervention for correcting a market failure or as an undesirable trade distortion depends sometimes upon who is making the judgement. But economic analysis ought to be able to help, both in determining the desirability of an intervention from a welfare perspective, and in assessing the merits of alternative forms of intervention. Governments may, however, decide to grant certain kinds of subsidies that have little to do with efficiency considerations, and in such cases economic analysis based on a simple welfare analysis may be of limited use. Also in these cases, the analysis is probably most helpful in ensuring that policy-makers are aware of the costs of pursuing particular objectives and of alternative, lesser-cost ways of doing so. We also know that judgements about what to subsidize, by how much and for how long are complex technical questions on which governments frequently lack adequate information.
Remerciements
Le Rapport sur le commerce mondial 2010 a été rédigé sous la direction générale d’Alejandro Jara, Directeur général adjoint, et sous la supervision de Patrick Low, Directeur de la Division de la recherche économique et des statistiques. Les principaux auteurs du Rapport sont Marc Bacchetta, Cosimo Beverelli, John Hancock, Alexander Keck, Gaurav Nayyar, Coleman Nee, Roberta Piermartini, Nadia Rocha, Michele Ruta, Robert Teh et Alan Yanovich. D’autres contributions écrites ont été fournies par Marc Auboin, Mireille Cossy et James Windon. Les statistiques commerciales ont été fournies par les statisticiens de la Division de la recherche économique et des statistiques, dont les travaux ont été coordonnés par Hubert Escaith, Julia de Verteuil, Andreas Maurer et Jurgen Richtering.
Tendencias recientes en el comercio internacional
En 2005 la economía mundial creció el 3,3 por ciento, menos que en 2004, pero ligeramente por encima del promedio del último decenio. El crecimiento económico siguió siendo fuerte en la mayoría de las regiones, aunque no tan intenso como el año anterior. Sólo la economía europea siguió registrando un bajo crecimiento del PIB, menos de la mitad del registrado en América del Norte. A diferencia de Europa en el Japón se experimentó un fortalecimiento de la actividad económica. Debido a la disminución del crecimiento económico a escala mundial y a la evolución del mercado del petróleo, el crecimiento del comercio de mercancías -al igual que el del PIB- se desaceleró en términos reales, aunque siguió siendo superior al promedio del último decenio.
Sanitary and phytosanitary measures: Trends in accession plurilateral negotiations
Since 1947, effective levels of average tariff protection have declined, as regulatory protectionism – behind the border – has risen. To a large extent, the greater gains from continued trade opening lie in the area of procompetitive domestic regulatory reform, codified in duly enacted legislation with associated implementing regulations. In the practice of WTO accession negotiations, specific obligations have focused more on regulatory areas of the foreign trade regime. The evidence from thirty-three deposited Accession Protocols shows that there have been ninety-three specific obligations undertaken on sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures. Pursuant to WTO Accession Protocols, these are now integral to the Marrakesh Agreement Establishing the World Trade Organization (WTO Agreement). The quantum of citation in WTO jurisprudence in the area of SPS is considerable: since 1995, 42 out of 494 WTO dispute settlement cases have cited the WTO Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures in the request for consultations. This chapter examines the evolution of accession results on SPS from 1995 to 2015, and their contributions to the enhancement of the existing WTO legal and policy framework on SPS. Specifically, this chapter focuses on the increasing importance of SPS regulatory issues in the foreign trade regimes of WTO members, the substance of specific SPS obligations undertaken by Article XII members and their relationship to the WTO Agreement, and the core questions that have emerged on the SPS accession treaty dialogue in the context of customs union agreements. As demonstrated in this chapter, SPS accession commitments undertaken by thirty-three Article XII WTO members have exercised a significant influence on WTO jurisprudence. To a large extent, this has further clarified and strengthened WTO law.
Cohérence
La présente étude part d’un constat: des mesures de libéralisation des échanges élaborées et programmées de façon appropriée, conjuguées à un ensemble bien conçu de règles commerciales, peuvent apporter une contribution positive à la croissance et au développement. Toutefois, l’importance de cette contribution dépend aussi des autres politiques mises en oeuvre. La notion de cohérence a été utilisée dans la présente étude pour caractériser une situation dans laquelle ces politiques vont dans le même sens. Dans un monde où les objectifs et les priorités des politiques suivies sont multiples et où il n’existe aucun consensus sur un ensemble de mesures idéal, il est impossible de donner une précision opérationnelle à la notion de cohérence – au contraire, cette notion montre qu’en réalité les politiques sont interdépendantes et qu’une politique inadaptée ou une négligence dans un domaine peut compromettre l’efficacité des efforts déployés dans un autre domaine. On ne peut pas donner une définition unique de la cohérence tant qu’un ensemble d’objectifs n’a pas été établi de façon formelle et que ces objectifs n’ont pas été classés selon un ordre de priorité indiquant comment effectuer des compromis si nécessaire. La détermination précise d’un ensemble de mesures entièrement cohérent permettrait aussi de préciser la nature et le moment exacts de toutes les interventions pertinentes des pouvoirs publics. Une telle entreprise déborde largement du cadre de la présente étude. La cohérence, dans notre contexte, se rapporte simplement à l’idée que des approches qui se soutiennent mutuellement dans des domaines connexes produiront probablement une plus grande harmonie entre les intentions et les résultats. La cohérence examinée ici est une question de degré, et une meilleure cohérence signifie que les avantages découlant de politiques commerciales judicieuses sont plus nombreux que s’il n’existait pas de politiques de soutien dans d’autres domaines.
Uncertainty and risk in global supply chains
Many discussions of supply chain risk begin with graphic depictions of situations where small disruptions lead to a large impact. Sheffi (2005) describes the sequence of events beginning with a lighting strike to a Philips factory in New Mexico that led to the disruption of a generation of cell phones, with Nokia successfully overcoming the disruption through proactive management while Ericsson lost out.
Avant-propos du Directeur général de l’OMC
L’histoire du progrès économique est indissociable du changement économique. C’est une histoire marquée par l’essor et le déclin d’industries entières, avec l’arrivée d’idées nouvelles et d’innovations qui exigent de nouvelles compétences. Ce processus de transformation incessant a façonné l’économie mondiale actuelle, apportant plus de prospérité à des milliards de personnes dans le monde – et faisant de la capacité d’ajustement et d’adaptation un élément essentiel du succès économique. Aujourd’hui, comme hier, les individus, les entreprises et les sociétés s’efforcent de s’adapter à l’évolution rapide des conditions économiques afin de bénéficier des avantages qui en découlent. Ce qui diffère maintenant, c’est la vitesse remarquable à laquelle ces changements se produisent.
Agradecimientos
Las mujeres y el comercio: el papel del comercio en la promoción de la igualdad de género es un informe conjunto del Banco Mundial y de la Organización Mundial del Comercio (OMC). Coordinaron el informe Maria Liungman y Nadia Rocha, del Banco Mundial, y José- Antonio Monteiro y Roberta Piermartini, de la OMC. El equipo agradece la orientación y el apoyo de nuestros colegas del Banco Mundial: Caroline Freund, Directora Mundial, Comercio, Inversión y Competitividad; William Maloney, Economista Jefe para el Crecimiento Equitativo, las Finanzas y las Instituciones; el Grupo sobre Género del Banco Mundial, bajo la dirección de Caren Grown, Directora Global de Género; y Antonio Nucifora, Gerente de Práctica, Unidad de Comercio e Integración Regional; así como de nuestros colegas de la OMC: Aegyoung Jung, Asesora Jurídica Principal del Director General; y Robert Koopman, Economista Jefe y Director de la División de Estudios Económicos y Estadística.
Résumé analytique
Le Rapport sur le commerce mondial 2006 débute par un résumé succinct des principales tendances du commerce international établi sur la base du rapport publié par le Secrétariat en avril. Viennent ensuite de brèves observations analytiques sur certaines questions commerciales d’actualité, qui concernent, cette année, l’évolution récente du commerce des textiles et des vêtements, l’évolution des paiements internationaux au titre des redevances et des droits de licence, l’évolution du commerce des pays les moins avancés et les effets des catastrophes naturelles et des actes de terrorisme sur les courants d’échanges internationaux. Le Rapport 2006 a pour thème central les subventions, et en particulier la façon dont elles sont définies, ce que la théorie économique peut nous apprendre à leur sujet, les raisons pour lesquelles les pouvoirs publics y ont recours, les principaux secteurs dans lesquels elles sont accordées, et le rôle de l’Accord sur l’OMC dans leur réglementation dans le cadre du commerce international.
Acknowledgements
My sincere thanks go to my colleague Ms Kenza Le Mentec for her precious guidance. Kenza introduced me to the subject and provided invaluable inputs, in particular for the technical sections describing the technology and the section on trade facilitation. This publication would not have been possible without her support.
Recent patterns of global production and GVC participation
Taking advantage of a new accounting method to decompose GDP production into pure domestic production, traditional trade, simple and complex GVC activities, this chapter examines recent trends in global value chain (GVC) activities across the world. Our main findings show that the pace of GVC activities picked up in 2017 after a period of slow down since 2012; intra-North American and intra-European GVC activities declined relative to inter-regional transactions due to higher penetration via Factory Asia but value chains still remain largely regional; China is increasingly playing an important role as both a supply and demand hub in traditional trade and simple GVC networks, although the US and Germany are still the most important hubs in complex GVC networks; bilateral trade balances are significantly affected by the supply and demand of third countries; and net imports are no longer a proper measure of the impact of international trade on the domestic economy in the age of GVCs.
Prefacio del Director General
En el Informe sobre el Comercio Mundial 2010 se examina el comercio de recursos naturales, un tema que reviste una importancia creciente en las relaciones comerciales internacionales. Los recursos naturales son la base de una gran parte de la actividad económica, constituyen un componente básico de muchas economías y su participación en el comercio mundial es cada vez mayor. Una serie de características singulares de los recursos naturales explican la razón por la que ocupan un lugar especial en el análisis de la economía, de la economía política y de las políticas.
Impact of informality on trade and growth
The effects of a large informal economy on a country’s capacity to engage in international trade have not yet been the subject of extensive empirical research. Several case studies of experiences in individual countries show diverging results or, at the very least, allow a contradictory reading of the evidence. Nevertheless, the impact of informality on certain proximate causes for trade and growth has been analysed both theoretically and empirically.
Accession Protocols as building blocks
This book provides multiple perspectives on the process and results from WTO accession negotiations. The perspectives reflected are those of economists, lawyers, academics, chief negotiators of selected original WTO members and Article XII members, chairpersons of WTO accession working parties, professionals from the multilateral institutions of the WTO, World Bank, International Monetary Fund and International Trade Centre. Analysis is combined with ‘stories’, enriched by anecdotes. The detailing of the facts of trade policy drudgery is accompanied by explanatory narratives that bring the situations to life. In many ways, what will strike the reader is that this is a unique book of high value that has emerged from a system that has yielded higher levels of transparency, albeit grudgingly and only when pressed.
A reflection on accessions as the WTO turns twenty
As the WTO celebrates its twentieth year, it is appropriate to ask what WTO accessions have contributed to the rules-based multilateral trading system. What demands have been made by the original and incumbent WTO members on acceding governments? How have the acceding governments fared? This chapter finds that WTO accessions have expanded the reach of the trading system, not only geographically but conceptually, by clarifying disciplines and pointing the way to their further strengthening in future negotiations. Members who have acceded under Article XII of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade now account for 20 per wto_cent of total membership of the WTO. Meanwhile, with globalisation, the increased prevalence, complexity and capillarity of international exchange has greatly increased the need for a universal system of trade rules. Crucially, accession negotiations have been used by governments as an instrument for wide-ranging domestic reforms, including by means of far-reaching new legislation that has effectively changed the business landscape. In several instances, the WTO accession negotiating platform has been used for the much broader purpose of facilitating new, closer, geopolitical relationships. As the negotiating arm of the WTO continuously adapts, the success of accession negotiations also points to the opportunities inherent in variable negotiating configurations, such as plurilaterals around specific issues. There is also considerable scope for improving the process of accession negotiations to ensure greater transparency, streamlining and fairness.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to extend their thanks to David Cheong, Emmanuel Milet, Angélica Muñoz Marmolejo and Olga Striestka-Ilina for contributing to the research process. Thanks also go to the two anonymous referees for their helpful comments, and to colleagues who contributed substantial comments on the text, including Tatiana Prazeres, Johanna Silvander and Olga Striestka-Ilina.
Agradecimientos y Descargo de responsabilidad
El Informe sobre el comercio mundial 2018 ha sido elaborado bajo la responsabilidad general de Xiaozhun Yi, Director General Adjunto de la OMC, y Robert Koopman, Director de la División de Estudios Económicos y Estadística. El informe de este año ha sido coordinado por Cosimo Beverelli y Emmanuelle Ganne. Los autores del informe son Marc Bacchetta, Eddy Bekkers, Cosimo Beverelli, Emmanuelle Ganne, John Hancock, Mark Koulen, Andreas Maurer, José-Antonio Monteiro, Coleman Nee, Roberta Piermartini, Stela Rubinova, Viktor Stolzenburg, Robert Teh y Ankai Xu (División de Estudios Económicos y Estadística).
La cooperación internacional en materia de políticas de innovación en la era digital
Las políticas nacionales de innovación, como otras políticas gubernamentales, atienden a objetivos de política interna. Como se ha analizado en la sección C, pueden generar efectos indirectos positivos y negativos a nivel internacional, y algunos de los mecanismos por cuyo intermedio generan estos efectos tienen que ver con el comercio. La presente sección se centra en la cooperación encaminada a abordar los efectos indirectos relacionados con el comercio que las políticas de innovación generan a nivel internacional. Una cooperación de este tipo podría contribuir a asegurar que los Gobiernos dispongan de margen de actuación para aplicar políticas de innovación, así como a aprovechar al máximo los efectos indirectos positivos de esas políticas a nivel internacional, al tiempo que reducen al mínimo sus efectos negativos en los interlocutores comerciales.
Can developing countries use SPS standards to gain access to markets? The case of Mercosur
The role of sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) standards in agri-business has changed over the past decade, from being a technical instrument to avoid the use of food safety, animal and plant health measures for protectionist purposes to being a competitive instrument in differentiated product markets (Reardon et al., 2001). The change from mass markets to differentiated and niche markets for consumers with higher purchasing power triggered this shift towards SPS measures as a strategic tool for developing and differentiating markets, gaining market access, coordinating the quality and safety of the food system and defining market niches for those products. On the demand side, high-income consumers with varied and sophisticated tastes have buttressed this change and, on the supply side, so have production, processing and distribution technologies that allow for product differentiation and market extension and segmentation (Reardon et al., 2001).
Remerciements
Les femmes et le commerce: Le rôle du commerce dans la promotion de l’égalité hommes-femmes est un rapport conjoint de la Banque mondiale et de l’Organisation mondiale du commerce (OMC). La publication a été coordonnée par Maria Liungman et Nadia Rocha de la Banque mondiale et José-Antonio Monteiro et Roberta Piermartini de l’OMC. L’équipe tient à remercier pour leurs conseils et leur soutien les collègues de la Banque mondiale Caroline Freund (Directrice principale, Commerce, investissement et compétitivité), William Maloney (Économiste en chef, Croissance équitable, finance et institutions), le Groupe Égalité hommes-femmes mené par Caren Grown (Directrice principale), et Antonio Nucifora (Responsable, Unité Commerce et intégration régionale), ainsi que les collègues de l’OMC Aegyoung Jung (Conseillère juridique principale du Directeur général) et Robert Koopman (Économiste en chef et Directeur, Division de la recherche économique et des statistiques).
Literature Review
Globalization is the integration of goods, services, financial and capital markets on a world scale. From the perspective of firms, this integration means having access to broader markets but also facing tougher competition. In order to remain competitive in global markets, firms have to adjust by engaging in innovation, developing new products and adopting new technologies. They must also adjust by adapting their workforce to the new competitive environment. Such adjustment is costly, however, and workers bear a large share of the cost of adjustment to globalization. In this context, what are the responses policy-makers can offer to mitigate those costs and make globalization more inclusive? This chapter reviews the literature on adjustment policies with a view to answering this question.
Supply chains and sustainability
The concepts of “supply chains” and “sustainability” are highly compatible in their shared recognition of a network-centric reality and the resulting interpretations of system dynamics. Furthermore, the aggregate flows across global supply chains are significant – and increasingly so – for considerations on social, environmental, and economic sustainability. A plethora of theories have developed in this overlap between supply chains and sustainability, including sustainable supply chain management (SSCM), green supply chain management (GrSCM), and close-loop supply chains. These theories and their basic definitions and history will be reviewed in this chapter. While theoretical development has been distinguished in its intensity and productivity over a short period of time, progress is still needed in translating theory into application for the business practitioner. To this end, empirical case studies are needed to showcase best practices and guide the development of prescriptive tools.
The implications of using value-added trade data for applied trade policy analysis
Recent efforts to examine trade data from a value-added perspective, and linking that work to global value and supply chains, has largely been driven by the recognition that traditional data on imports and exports may be masking the increasingly crossborder nature of global production networks. In this paper we examine how using new data sets on value-added trade in two traditional empirical models, a trade-based computable general equilibrium model and an econometric estimation of exchange rate pass through, generate new and useful insights. Our results suggest that the new data sets could improve empirical information used to support policy making.
Introducción
su diseño, su tamaño, su peso, su inocuidad, su comportamiento energético y ambiental, su interoperabilidad, el material de que está fabricado e incluso su proceso de producción. Pueden establecerse normas, por ejemplo, sobre las dimensiones de los contenedores de carga y de los filetes de rosca; el comportamiento, desde el punto de vista de la seguridad, de los cinturones para asientos, los cojines de aire y el instrumental médico; la pasteurización de la leche; y los protocolos que permiten a los ordenadores de diferentes proveedores conectarse entre sí.
Conclusion
Dans le présent rapport, on a montré qu’il était important de distinguer les normes selon leur fonction. Le cadre théorique qui a été adopté fait la distinction entre les normes relatives aux externalités de réseau, à l’information imparfaite et aux externalités négatives liées à la production ou à la consommation.
Avant-propos du Directeur général de l’OMC
Le commerce et la technologie sont étroitement liés. De l’invention de la roue au chemin de fer et à l’avènement de la conteneurisation, la technologie a toujours joué un rôle clé en façonnant notre manière de faire du commerce et ce phénomène s’accélère comme jamais auparavant. Nous vivons une période de changement technologique sans précédent, et les diverses innovations basées sur Internet pourraient avoir un impact majeur. Par exemple, l’Internet des objets, l’intelligence artificielle, l’impression 3D et la chaîne de blocs pourraient transformer profondément ce qui est échangé, par qui et comment.
Can SMEs participate in global production networks?
This paper examines factors influencing the participation of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economies in global production networks. SMEs – which are seen as the backbone of employment and poverty reduction in ASEAN economies – have returned to the spotlight with expanding global production networks in East Asia. Greater SME participation in global production networks through closer linkages with multinational corporations (MNCs) and direct exports can be a potent means of accelerating technology transfer, spillovers and economic development (Hobday, 2001; Lim and Kimura, 2010). Facing a fragile world growth outlook, the ASEAN and East Asia Summits in 2011 have emphasized SMEs as a vehicle for increasing intra-regional trade, rebalancing towards domestic and regional demand and inclusive growth in Asia.
The role of trade and trade policy in the development process
Different aspects of the development process have been emphasized by the many scholars and observers who have ventured into this field. The seminal work of Sen (1999) identifies freedom as both the primary end and principal means of development. The Brundtland Commission stressed that development must involve the care and nurturing of the environment for future generations. Others have focused particularly on poverty reduction and the empowerment of poor people. All these approaches consider economic growth a vital component of the development process, while emphasizing that development is about more than growth.
Quantitative economics in WTO dispute settlement
WTO dispute settlement continues to be the subject of extensive scrutiny by both trade practitioners and academics. Not surprisingly, most of this analysis is legal in nature, touching upon the various arguments that have been put forward by parties to disputes and the legal foundations upon which these disputes are adjudicated. While legal and procedural issues remain the domain of trade lawyers, economists are being called upon with increased frequency on matters that call for economic interpretation or quantification. This should hardly be surprising given that multilateral trade rules reflect key economic principles such as comparative advantage, and that many of the terms in WTO Agreements, which are important in the resolution of disputes, have an economic basis. It may also have to do with the fact that increasing numbers of disputes are reaching the implementation phase, in which arbitrators need to quantify the allowable level of retaliation, as will be further explained below.
WTO rule-making: WTO Accession Protocols and jurisprudence
This chapter examines rule-making in the WTO. It explains the legal provisions governing how rules are made in the WTO, and describes WTO rule-making in practice, including through the adoption of decisions by the Ministerial Conference and the General Council and by way of dispute settlement. The role of consensus and voting in WTO rulemaking are discussed. The chapter also refers to different types of rules and decisions – such as ministerial declarations, authoritative interpretations, amendments and waivers – and considers their legal value and effect, as well as how different types of rules or decisions have been interpreted or applied. Finally, it also includes a look at rule-making in the context of accessions, and considers Accession Protocols and working party reports through the lens of WTO dispute settlement.