Economic research and trade policy analysis
More Trade for Better Health?
The main objective of this paper is to analyse trade flows and tariff policies of health products. The first contribution is to construct three groups of health products based on the 2007 Harmonized System classification of international trade. Using these commodity groups, we analyse trade flows between 167 countries for the years 1996 to 2009. We find that trade in health products has developed very dynamically, with trade in dosified medicine displaying the strongest growth with an annual growth rate of almost 12 per cent. The results further indicate that the market of health products is dominated by a small number of developed countries. Finally, studying the tariffs on health products in preferential trade agreements between developing countries, the results show that the tariff level is low, but in some individual cases still substantive.
Understanding Trade in Digitized Ideas
Advances in information and communications technologies (ICTs) and new business models have widened opportunities for trade in digitized ideas, shaping global value chains and production networks in cultural or creative goods and services. However, much of this trade has eluded conventional categorization and new business models. In particular multinational firms have blurred the way international transactions can be recorded and how this can be transformed into relevant statistics for policy makers, research and for businesses themselves. Recent international statistical guidelines have suggested a number of improvements to better respond to policy information needs, including in the area of trade, innovation or culture. However, a number of questions remain unanswered. The objective of the paper is therefore to trace the conceptual and empirical statistical picture and assess the quality of existing statistics and the extent to which important trade in digitized ideas is inadequately measured. It discusses conceptual issues, and constraints encountered in gaining a full picture. A number of possible data collection and compilation solutions are suggested to enable a better understanding of this trade.
SMEs in Services Trade
Issues related to small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) supplying services have been raised at earlier stages of the Doha Round in various negotiating contexts and, more recently, at meetings of the Council for Trade in Services. It is difficult, however, to find a common denominator as to whether SME-related concerns might merit attention, from a trade policy perspective, under the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). Without proposing any priorities, this paper seeks to provide an overview of issues that Members might want to address in the WTO, from promoting compliance with transparency disciplines under existing provisions to advancing the liberalization and rule-making mandates of the GATS with an SME focus.
Accumulating Trade Costs and Competitiveness in Global Value Chains
Trade costs such as applied tariffs, transportation and insurance costs are amplified as they pass through the multiple production steps associated with modern supply chains. This socalled "cascade effect" arises since trade costs accumulate as intermediate goods are imported and then re-exported further downstream, going through different processing nodes before reaching the final consumer. Moreover, the financial impact of these trade costs is magnified in the "trade in tasks" rationale which governs global value chains (GVCs). Specialised processing firms need to recoup the associated trade cost applying to the full value of the good from the smaller fraction of value-added created at each consecutive productive stage. This large relative weight of transaction expenses on the profitability of individual business operations explains why trade along GVCs is particularly exposed to trade costs. The paper reviews the implications of trade costs on competitiveness at industry, national and global levels. The financial implications of trade costs at firm and sectoral level are based on trade in value-added data for 2011. The multilateral welfare effects of reducing discrete trade costs are identified using a network analysis approach, which goes beyond the traditional bilateral dimension of international trade and identifies where trade facilitation investment would have the highest social returns from a GVC perspective. The authors conclude that while the direct benefits of trade facilitation will be proportionally higher for those countries that are not well integrated into international trade because of their high trade costs, the global benefits of trade facilitation investments will also be high if they are undertaken by key traders that lie at the core of global value chains.
Intellectual Property Provisions in Regional Trade Agreements
This paper assembles detailed information about the intellectual property (IP) provisions contained in 194 active regional trade agreements (RTAs) that had been notified to the WTO by November 2010. IP provisions in RTAs have been the subject of much study and commentary. However, much of this work has focused on a relatively limited number of RTAs, with a concentration on parties with narrow geographical and economic profiles. The goal of the current study was to expand beyond the more commonly studied RTAs, to make an initial review of the full array of RTAs notified to the WTO, and in that way to lay the groundwork for a more comprehensive overview that would enable consideration of the broader system implications of this more diverse range of norm-setting activity. This was tackled by conducting a comprehensive mapping of the IP content in a larger number of RTAs involving parties from all regions and across different levels of development. This broad approach is necessary to better understand cross-cutting trends in RTAs, and how all the parts of the international IP framework influence each other. The methodology followed involved surveying each RTA in the sample to determine whether it made reference to any of 30 different IP-related provisions. The relevant provisions are discussed in detail and summary statistics used to identify patterns over time and by continent, level of economic development, and selected traders. The number of IP provisions in each RTA is then used to classify agreements according to their level of IP content. The first significant identified trend is the acceleration in the conclusion of RTAs with IP provisions after the creation of the WTO and the entry into force of the WTO TRIPS Agreement. A significant proportion of those RTAs contain some type of IP provision, but the number and type of those provisions vary widely across agreements. More than two-thirds of the RTAs surveyed include provisions on border measures or statements of general commitment to IP protection or cooperation. A smaller proportion contains explicit provisions on specific fields of IP law, such as geographical indications, patents, trademarks and copyright. The inclusion of even more detailed provisions elaborating on specific areas of IP law is less common. As a result, the actual IP content of RTAs differs greatly across the sample, with about 40% of these agreements found to have negligible substantive IP standards. A significant number of RTAs containing more detailed IP provisions are characterized by a hub-andspoke architecture in which the wording and structure of IP provisions converged around the RTAs of specific countries or blocs. The largest systems are grouped around the EFTA, the European Union and the United States with countries like Chile, Japan and Mexico constituting other hubs. The huband- spoke architecture seems to have encouraged the convergence of domestic IP regimes among the respective RTA signatories. The mechanics of this potentially crucial process and its economic implications require further investigation. The analytical methodology followed in this paper also needs additional development to take better advantage of the information gathered together in the course of this study and other data.
TBT Provisions in Regional Trade Agreements
This paper investigates whether TBT provisions included in RTAs differ from those under the WTO TBT Agreement, and, if they do, whether they entail broader commitments. Our analysis covers 238 RTAs, of which 171 include at least one provision, and focuses on the provisions on technical regulations, conformity assessment procedures, transparency, dispute settlement, marking and labelling and sector-specific commitments. We find that all RTAs signed since 2010 systematically include TBT provisions and that the most frequent provisions are those referring to the TBT Agreement and transparency. Moreover, even if there are RTAs that include new or broader commitments than the TBT Agreement, our study shows that their number remains very limited. For instance, relatively few RTAs have included provisions to better implement WTO provisions in the area of transparency or provisions requiring the equivalence or harmonization of technical regulations among the parties or even the recognition of conformity assessment results. RTAs with a dispute settlement provision that applies exclusively to TBT issues are also very few. These RTAs give in general exclusive jurisdiction to the WTO DSM over TBT related disputes. Finally, also only a minority of RTAs include provisions on new issues such as marking and labelling or sector-specific provisions, typically for electric and electronic products, pharmaceuticals or vehicles.
General Equilibrium Trade Policy Analysis with Structural Gravity
The objective of this manuscript is to serve as a practical guide for evaluation of the general equilibrium (GE) effects of trade policy using the structural gravity model. We try to achieve this objective in four steps. First, we focus on the original Armington-CES gravity model to offer a deep analysis of the structural relationships underlying the general equilibrium gravity system, and how they can be exploited to make trade policy inferences. Second, we present and discuss a series of indexes that can be used to summarize the GE effects of trade policy. Third, we summarize the standard procedures to perform counterfactual analysis with the gravity model, and we outline recent methods to obtain theory-consistent GE effects of trade policy. Finally, we demonstrate how gravity can be integrated with a broader class of general equilibrium models by nesting the Armington-CES model within a dynamic production superstructure with capital accumulation.
The Harmonized System
As an internationally standardized product nomenclature, the Harmonized System (HS) is used by WTO Members in their schedules of concessions and in the definitions of product coverage for a number of WTO agreements. The Harmonized System is normally amended by the World Customs Organization every four to six years. These amendments pose considerable challenges for the WTO and its Members. On the one hand, Members need to periodically update their historical schedules of concessions into the latest nomenclature. On the other hand, these amendments may have implications for the definition and thus also the implementation of some WTO agreements where the product coverage is defined in terms of the HS. In either case, the product codes and/or descriptions in the old HS version need to be transposed precisely into those in the new version of HS nomenclature in order to retain the historical concessions or the product coverage unchanged. Given the complexity of HS amendments, this process could be very technical and sometimes tricky. This paper starts by providing an overview of the HS amendments and proposing a categorization of those HS changes in the context of transposition. It then looks back at the history of the introduction of the HS and its subsequent amendments into the WTO schedules and assesses the difficulties and problems which have been faced by WTO Members. On the basis of such analysis, it introduces the successful procedures and methodologies used by WTO Members and the WTO Secretariat to deal with the recent HS2002 transposition. The paper also discusses the implications of the HS amendments to three WTO agreements and the possible approaches to transpose their product lists into a new HS nomenclature.
Self-Confirming Immigration Policy
We study immigration policy in a small receiving economy under self-selection of migrants. We show that a non-discriminatory immigration policy choice affects and is affected by the migratory decisions of skilled and unskilled foreign workers. From this interaction multiple equilibria may arise, which are driven by the natives' expectations on the welfare effects of immigration. In particular, pessimistic (optimistic) beliefs induce a country to impose higher (lower) barriers to immigration, which crowd out (crowd in) skilled migrants and thus confirm initial beliefs. This self-fulfilling mechanism sustains the endogenous formation of an anti or pro-immigration prejudice. We discuss how the adoption of a skill-selective policy affects this result.
Global Production with Export Platforms
Most international commerce is carried out by multinational firms, which use their foreign affiliates for the majority of their foreign sales. In this paper, I examine the determinants of multinational firms’ location and production decisions and the welfare implications of multinational production. The few existing quantitative general equilibrium models that incorporate multinational firms achieve tractability by assuming away export platforms – i.e. they do not allow foreign affiliates of multinationals to export – or by ignoring fixed costs associated with foreign investment. I develop a quantifiable multi-country general equilibrium model, which tractably handles multinational firms that engage in export platform sales and that face fixed costs of foreign investment. I first estimate the model using German firm-level data to uncover the size and nature of costs of multinational enterprise and show that fixed costs of foreign investment are large. Second, I calibrate the model to data on trade and multinational production for twelve European and North American countries. Counterfactual results reveal that multinationals play an important role in transmitting technological improvements to foreign countries as they can jump the barriers to international trade; I find that a twenty percent increase in the productivity of US firms leads to welfare gains in foreign countries an order of magnitude larger than in a world in which multinational production is disallowed. I demonstrate the usefulness of the model for current policy analysis by studying the pending Canada-EU trade and investment agreement; I find that a twenty percent drop in the barriers to foreign production between the signatories would divert about seven percent of the production of EU multinationals from the US to Canada.
Trade Policy Uncertainty and the WTO
Do WTO commitments reduce the risk of trade policy reversals? To address this question, we rely on the theoretical model of varying cooperative tariffs by Bagwell and Staiger (1990) to specify our empirical model for the probability of a tariff increase. We then study how WTO tariff commitments affect this probability. We estimate our model using a database of WTO bound tariffs that we built for all WTO Members from 1996 to -2011- at the HS 6-digit level of disaggregation. Our results show that WTO commitments significantly reduce the probability of a tariff increase, even when the bound tariff is above the MFN applied rate. In addition, the WTO reduces trade policy uncertainty through its monitoring function. These results are robust to including political economy explanations of tariff changes and to addressing endogeneity concerns.
Indisputably Essential
Economic theory has made considerable progress in explaining why sovereign countries cooperate in trade. Central to most theories of trade cooperation are issues of self-enforcement: The threat of reprisal by an aggrieved party maintains the initial balance of concessions and prevents opportunism. However, economic scholarship has been less coherent in explaining why countries choose to settle and enforce their trade disputes with the help of an impartial third party, a “trade court”. Typically, economists focusing on the purpose of trade agreements have assumed away the very reasons why institutions are needed, since under standard assumptions, neither defection from the rules nor disputes are expected to occur. This paper is a step towards the formulation of a coherent economic theory of dispute settlement. It challenges traditional models of enforcement (primarily concerned with acts of punishment) for being insufficient in explaining the existence of dispute settlement institutions. We perform a comprehensive analysis of the economics of dispute settlement institutions and demonstrate to what extent the literatures of trade cooperation and dispute institutions are (and should be) interlinked. On the basis of these theories, we show that dispute settlement institutions in trade agreements may assume a variety of roles, including that of an information repository and disseminator, an honest broker, an arbitrator and calculator of damages, an active information gatherer or an adjudicator.
The Impact of Services Liberalization on Education
This paper studies the impact of services liberalization on education and the gender education gap at the district level in India. We focus on the time period 1987 to 1999 and three services sectors - banking, insurance and telecommunications - which were all state monopolies, have been heavily liberalized in the time frame studied, have relatively high shares of female employment and require high education investments. Our hypothesis is that the national-level liberalization spurred higher investment in education, particularly girls’ education, in districts with higher employment growth in these key services sectors.
National Treatment in the GATS
This paper is concerned with three problems in the interpretation of the national treatment obligation in the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). First, the precise domain of Article XVII on national treatment has not been clearly delineated, particularly in relation to Article XVI dealing with market access. Secondly, there is a difference between the text of Article XVII and the structure of the schedules of commitments, which makes it difficult to interpret the scope of the national treatment obligation even for identical services supplied through different modes. The final, and most complex, problem arises in establishing the definition of "like" services and "like" service suppliers. Uncertainty about the precise meaning of the national treatment obligation may undermine the key GATS objective of creating a secure, predictable trading environment. Moreover, the extent of liberalization implied by the commitments under GATS depends on the precise choice of interpretation.
Costa Rica
Costa Rica has managed to combine an active agenda in the Multilateral Trade Negotiations (MTNs) at the WTO with the negotiation of several Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs). Such PTAs, most notably those with the US, China and the EU, will boost the share of total exports benefiting from preferential access in the destination markets from 24% to over 83%. Along this path of trade liberalization, the country has placed a strong emphasis on the attraction of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in hightech manufacturing and services activities, producing a substantial transformation in the structure of its exports and inserting a fair share of the economy into Global Value Chains (GVCs). As a result, about 43% of the country’s total exports are related to GVCs, with an average of 36% of such exported value being added domestically. Labor and capital employed by GVC-participating firms account for about 40% of the domestic contribution to exports, while locally-provided services and supplies account for almost one sixth and one tenth, respectively. In turn, the relative importance of different services is quite variable across the GVCs identified.
The global race to vaccinate
The WTO Secretariat has published two information notes on issues relating to the manufacturing of COVID-19 vaccines.
Trade Disciplines with a Trapdoor
At first glance, this paper deals with a simple classification issue only: the coverage and treatment of certain manufacturing operations and the resulting products under the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) rather than under its long-standing counterpart in merchandise trade, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). Yet there are important structural/conceptual differences between the two Agreements, which may have far-reaching consequences, inter alia, for the use of GATT-based tariffs and trade remedies (anti-dumping and countervailing measures). It is submitted that the currently applied classification system could prompt companies to (re-)define the ownership conditions of otherwise identical production activities, with a view to avoiding GATT disciplines. However, the relevant criteria separating goods- from services-related operations are not only hard to specify and monitor in practice, but it is also difficult to see an underlying policy rationale. In the interest of clarity and consistency, WTO Members might thus want to close this conceptual trapdoor. Due to the rapid proliferation of international production-sharing arrangements, the stakes will likely be rising.
Improving trade data for products essential to fight covid-19
Improving trade data on products needed to combat the COVID-19 pandemic — including vaccines and their components — is key to ensuring that the right policies are in place to facilitate their distribution, according to a new information note issued by the WTO Secretariat on 1 July.
Can Economic Sanctions be Effective?
While economic sanctions may be attractive policy tools for governments wanting to express discontent with a country's behaviour, it is arguable if from an economic perspective sanctions can achieve the change that is often envisaged through the punitive measures taken. In fact, the literature does not present conclusive evidence that economic sanctions are an effective policy instrument. Nevertheless the number of sanction episodes is on the rise and have increasingly gained in popularity in recent years. What can explain that?
Protectionnisme dans l'assurance et la réassurance africaine
Le concept d'assurance est fondé sur la mutualisation de risques futurs aléatoires moyennant le paiement en amont d'une contribution financière par le client (la prime d'assurance). Pour être effective, l'assurance suppose une confiance élevée de la part des clients dans la capacité des fournisseurs d'assurance (les compagnies d'assurance) à payer les dommages lorsqu'ils se matérialisent. Sinon, les clients ne payeraient pas leurs primes aux compagnies d'assurance.
Expect the Unexpected? LDC GATS Commitments as Internationally Credible Policy Indicators? The Example of Mali
There is a stark contrast between the ambitious investment promotion efforts of many least developed countries (LDCs) and their often minimal commitments under the General Agreement on Trade in Service (GATS). At a time of urgent need to address domestic infrastructure and investment gaps, this situation cannot be a positive signal for investors (either domestic or foreign), and may be a missed opportunity to address services aspects of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). LDCs often lack internationally credible mechanisms for making commitments, which contributes to their evident difficulty in attracting the more employment-generating types of investment that could bring greater opportunities for poverty alleviation. Considering that most LDCs, under domestic laws, have already opened a wide range of services sectors to foreign direct investment (FDI), there may be an opportunity to enhance the international consistency and credibility of LDC investment promotion efforts by making GATS commitments, while preserving substantial "policy space" with regard to the actual status quo. While reforms to domestic regulations are undoubtedly of greater importance to attracting FDI, GATS commitments, including partial commitments, can be used to publicize LDC investment priorities in services (such as attracting new businesses, encouraging joint ventures and technology transfer, etc.), and make them legally binding internationally. Offers to make new GATS commitments can further be used as "bargaining chips" in the current Doha Development Agenda (DDA) negotiations. Mali has been selected as a case study, due to the fact that trade and investment policies are clearly and consistently documented.
Boosting Trade Finance in Developing Countries
The paper discusses the efforts deployed by various players, mainly multilateral financial institutions, regional development banks, export credit agencies, to mobilize greater flows of trade finance for developing countries, with a view to help them integrate in world trade. As an institution geared towards the balanced expansion of world trade, the WTO is in the business of making trade possible. Its various functions include reducing trade barriers, negotiating and implementing global trade rules, and settling disputes on the basis of the rule of law. The WTO is also interested in strengthening the "supply-side" of developing countries so that they can respond to new market opportunities. To this end, it supports various initiatives aimed at improving the "trade infrastructures" of developing countries, ranging from the ability to meet international product, safety and sanitary standards, to run efficient customs, or to participate effectively to the multilateral trade negotiations by training public servants. The WTO carries out various initiatives with other partners (public and private sector institutions), in the context of its own technical assistance program, or in the context of multi-agency projects such as the Integrated Framework or the Aid-for-Trade Initiative. Since more than 90% of trade transactions involve some form of credit, insurance or guarantee, one can reasonably say that trade finance is the lifeline of trade. Producers and traders in developing or least-developed countries need to have access to affordable flows of trade financing and insurance to be able to import and export, and hence integrate in world trade. From that perspective, an efficient financial system is one indispensable infrastructure to allow trade to happen. In line with the above initiatives, the WTO has been following actively, and at times, directly supporting, initiatives to boost the availability of trade finance in developing and least-developed countries wherever it was needed. Since the WTO is not a financial institution, it has been supporting in the past few years partners engaged in this effort such as international financial institutions, export credit agencies, large banks and regional development banks. Initially, the WTO has been asked by its members at several points in recent years to examine the issue of availability of trade financing – as a key infrastructure needed by developing and leastdeveloped countries to integrate in world trade. Paragraph 36 of the Ministerial Declaration of Doha requested WTO Members to examine, and if necessary come up with recommendations, on measures that the WTO could take, within its remit, to minimize the consequences of financial instabilities on their trade opportunities. In the context of the newly created Working Group on Trade, Debt and Finance (WGTDF), the interruptions of the flows of trade finance in emerging markets during the Asian and Latin American financial crises were quickly identified as concerns by Members, as well as the chronic difficulties of low income Members to secure more affordable flows of trade financing in the long-run. These concerns were channelled to the WTO Ministerial Meetings in Cancun (2003) and Hong-Kong (2005).2 During this period of examination, the Heads of the IMF, World Bank and the WTO agreed at the General Council Meeting on Coherence of 2002 to form an expert group including all interested parties, multilateral and regional public institutions, export credit agencies, private banks to examine what went wrong in this segment of financial markets, and how to create an enabling environment in local markets to provide adequate flows of trade finance on a on-going basis. In chairing one of these meetings, the Director-General of the WTO defined the role of the WTO in this area: encouraging liberalization of this type of financial services under the financial services agreement, being a regulator of export credit and guarantee subsidies under the ASCM, and serving as a forum to discuss WTO-compatible ways of providing support to developing countries. Conclusions by the Working Group were presented at the WGTDF, and later at the General Council. WTO Secretariat work on this topic up to 2003, in particular its contribution to the WGTDF and to the expert group, was summarized in WTO Discussion Paper 2.4 While the liquidity in financial markets improved from 2002 until the recent turmoil created by the crisis of the sub-prime mortgage markets, trade finance remained an issue for concern for WTO Members, in particular the poorest, which do not have access to international financial markets or for emerging markets which remain prone to changes in market sentiment, and hence credit rating. Despite the rapid development of "trade finance facilitation" schemes developed by regional development banks and the IFC, with immediate success in low income countries, the issue of availability of trade finance came back among other "supply-side" constraints identified by the Aidfor- Trade Task Force, after the WTO Ministerial Meeting in Hong-Kong. While the mandate of the WTO under the Aid-for-Trade is essentially one of evaluation and monitoring, it may be in cases one of advocacy. Based on the work being carried out since 2002, and after consultation with partners (regional development banks, multilateral institutions, export credit institutions,...), input by the WTO Secretariat to boost the availability of trade finance for developing countries under the Aid-for-Trade umbrella was welcomed by Members. Lack of trade financing and guarantee infrastructures were identified as one of the barriers to integration of low income countries in world trade by each of the three regional Aid-for-Trade Reviews. It was acknowledged that the current Aid-for-Trade Initiative could provide the extra leverage to convince WTO partners to deliver more plentiful of trade credit and guarantees to WTO members that need it the most. This paper provides background on the difficulties of some countries and traders to access affordable trade credit and finance, on the growing divide between these low income countries and economically advanced countries in handling modern trade finance instruments, and on the joint reflection undertaken by the WTO, most recently under the Aid-for-Trade programme, and previously under the umbrella of the WGTDF and the Coherence Mandate, to help strengthen developing countries' capacities in this area.
Food Prices and the Multiplier Effect of Export Policy
This paper studies the relationship between export policy and food prices. We show that, when individuals are loss averse, food exporters may use trade policy to shield the domestic economy from large price shocks. This creates a complementarity between the price of food in international markets and export policy. Specifically, unilateral actions by exporting countries give rise to a "multiplier effect": when a shock in the international food market drives up (down) its price, governments respond by imposing export restrictions (subsidies), thus exacerbating the initial shock and soliciting further export activism. We test this theory with a new dataset that comprises monthly information on trade measures across 125 countries and 29 food products for the period 2008-10, finding evidence of a multiplier effect. Global restrictions in a product (i.e. the share of international trade covered by export restrictions) are positively correlated with the probability of imposing a new export restriction on that product, especially for staple foods. Large exporters are found to be more reactive to restrictive measures, suggesting that the multiplier effect is mostly driven by this group. Finally, we estimate that a 1 per cent surge in global restrictions increased international food prices by 1.1 per cent on average during 2008-10. These findings contribute to inform the broader debate on the proper regulation of export policy within the multilateral trading system.
Whether and When to Liberalize Capital Account and Financial Services
Discussions about international capital movements raise extremely important and controversial questions. Why should countries open up their capital accounts, especially considering that unrestricted international capital movement is a relatively new phenomenon? For example, many OECD countries have not eliminated their foreign exchange restrictions only until the 1980's. If the answer is unequivocally affirmative, does it matter how fast should countries do so? Should they wait until "all essential pieces" of the policy package are in place before they eliminate all restrictions? How are international capital movements related to domestic financial sectors? Is there a difference between opening to competition an industry such as car manufacturing as compared to the banking sector? Should the opening of the banking sector be governed by different rules? Rules about foreign exchange restrictions are already in place in the IMF Articles. Until recently, the IMF Articles only called for the elimination of foreign exchange restrictions on the current account. The ongoing discussion and the controversy about globalization that calls for the capital account liberalization introduces, therefore, a relatively new element into the whole discussion. These questions have also implications for the World Trade Organization. It is well known, that the Uruguay Round Agreements have already provided a coverage for a number of aspects that are directly related to foreign investment. Rules established elsewhere such as in the context of changes to the IMF Articles will obviously have an important bearing for the implementation of rules agreed in the Uruguay Round. This raises a variety of other questions in the mind of some observers. Who should decide about the rules on capital account liberalization? What rules? IMF? What is the role of the WTO? How does one link the two? All of the questions raised above are clearly extremely important and most of them are discussed in the following paper by John Williamson. Mr. Williamson's presentation is based on his lecture and discussion which was delivered on 17 June 1999 at the WTO. The actual text that follows is a transcript of that lecture.
Vertical Specialization and the Quality of Infrastructure
This paper explores the role of producer services and ICT on international outsourcing. The motivation for outsourcing is to focus on core business and improve efficiency and outsourcing companies usually outsource a number of functions and the efficiency gains depend on the ability for the suppliers to deliver the required quality at the right time. The timeliness of delivery and the fulfilment of quality standards depend critically on the availability of producer services. I therefore argue that international outsourcing can best be understood within an analysis framework of many suppliers that are interdependent, and the O-ring theory of production is such a theory. The paper first presents and modifies this model and then explores its predictions in an empirical analysis of the determinants of international vertical specialization as defined by an index developed by Hummels et al. (2001). The index is calculated for a cross-section of 52 countries and 5 sectors and regressed on a number of variables affecting the timeliness of delivery. It is found that vertical specialization is sensitive to trade barriers and infrastructure quality and cost of infrastructural services. The relative importance of trade barriers and various indicators of infrastructure vary between sectors. Vertical specialization in the electronics sector appears to be most sensitive to trade barriers and the density of the telecommunication network. This is also the case for the motor vehicles sector, but the size of the parameters is somewhat lower. The chemicals sector is most sensitive to the restriction on maritime services, while for textiles and clothing the aggregated measure of infrastructure had the highest explanatory power. Only in the electronics sector did the wage level (GDP per capita was used as a proxy) matter for vertical specialization.
Agricultural Trade and Development
The system of global agricultural and food trade is undergoing rapid processes of change, with important implications for economic development. In this paper we document and discuss these changes; including the rapid growth and structural change in agri-food trade, the increased consolidation in food supply chains, the proliferation of public and private food standards, high and volatile food prices, and increased vertical coordination in the chains. We investigate what the implications are of these changes for developing countries, for their participation in international agricultural trade as well as for economic development, income mobility and poverty reduction in rural areas.
Trade Policy Substitution
We investigate to what extent the probability that a Specific Trade Concern (STC) is raised in the WTO against a Member in a given sector is affected by past reductions in applied tariffs. Employing an identification strategy based on “new measures”, we find evidence of a substitution of non-tariff measures for tariffs both in the sample of TBT and in the sample of SPS concerns. While in the SPS sample this result holds both among developed and developing economies, in the TBT sample such “trade policy substitution” only occurs when the country maintaining the measure at issue is economically developed. These results are consistent with our theoretical model, which predicts policy substitution between tariffs and standards in economies where meeting such standards is relatively less costly and in sectors where meeting such standards is relatively more important from the perspective of producers.
Foreign Banking
The General Agreement on Trade in Services (known as the GATS) is an important new element in the international framework that affects the regulation of every WTO Member's financial sector. However, except for a limited number of country-specific case studies, no attempt has been made to compare WTO commitments to open the domestic banking sector to foreign banks with actual regulatory practice in a systematic and comprehensive manner on a cross-country basis. Nor has much attention been devoted to systematically and comprehensively assess the degree to which WTO Members discriminate against foreign bank. This paper draws upon a new and comprehensive dataset consisting of the commitments countries made at the WTO and the regulations actually imposed on foreign banks by those countries. The dataset covers 123 WTO Members for whom there was also information available on their current regulatory regime for banking (based on the responses to a World Bank survey as discussed in Barth, Caprio, and Levine (2006)). On the basis of that data, the authors develop indices measuring the degree of openness to foreign banking based upon both commitments made and actual regulatory practice, with a view to assessing the overall extent to which countries open their borders to foreign banks more than they are legally obliged to do based upon their WTO commitments. The dataset is also used to assess the overall extent to which countries discriminate against foreign banks by regulating them less favorably than domestic banks. Although our results are still quite preliminary, they do show substantial divergences between commitments and practices. Indices of market openness and discrimination reveal wide differences among the 123 countries in the sample. The paper also identifies various factors that help explain the level of commitments that WTO Members have made.
WTO Accession and Growth: Tang and Wei Redux
On the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the WTO, this paper re-estimates the impact of WTO accession on growth. Joining the multilateral trading system not only expands access to international markets but also requires commitment to domestic reforms. Tang and Wei (2009) showed that there is in fact a positive effect of WTO on growth also during the period of accession when these commitments are undertaken.
Is There Reciprocity in Preferential Trade Agreements on Services?
Are market access commitments on services in Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) reciprocal or simply unilateral? If reciprocal, do concessions granted in services depend on concessions received from the trading partner in other services or in non-services areas as well? In this paper we investigate the presence of reciprocity in bilateral services agreements, by sub-sector, mode of supply and type of agreement (North-North, South-North, South-South). To do so, we use a database of concessions given and received by 36 WTO Members in 40 services PTAs. Results reveal the presence of reciprocity at the product (sub-sector) level and across economic sectors (i.e., preferences in services trade in exchange for preferences received in goods trade). Reciprocity is stronger in agreements between developed countries. The findings provide insights into motivations for services PTAs, but also the multilateral negotiations. Indeed, the negotiation of services PTAs provides an incentive to withhold services offers in the Doha Round in order to extract more - reciprocal- concessions at a bilateral level. The existence of reciprocity on a sectoral basis may also hold lessons on optimal ways to improve the multilateral negotiating process.
Services Rules in Regional Trade Agreements
The study tries first to assess the extent of similarities and divergences among services rules in regional trade agreements as compared to the GATS. To do so, it uses a typology identifying variations in 48 key provisions structured under seven themes commonly found in RTAs and using the GATS as a benchmark. The analysis identifies two main “families” of agreements GATSinspired and NAFTA-inspired) and a residual category. The paper briefly explores the historical development that led to these families as well as their geographical spread both on an agreement by agreement basis and a country by country basis. The paper then analyses by theme the variations found in the RTAs among services rules including their novelty as compared to the GATS. Given the lack of available information on the implementation of the agreements the paper tries to assess whenever possible the magnitude of the discrepancies and their practical impacts. While subject to some qualifications, the results of the study are relatively straight forward: there is no "spaghetti bowl" in services rules, but just two "families" and one residual category. The details reveal that the degree of divergence between those two families does not overall seem insurmountable. This assessment concords with other studies (e.g. Marchetti, Roy) that have equated them in terms of national treatment and market access and have compared directly commitments undertaken under the three families of agreements. One may even note a certain tendency to a convergence towards the GATS model (e.g. the addition of market access clause in the second generation of NAFTA-like agreements or the use of GATS-type architecture by EU for agreements else than pre-adhesion ones). In terms of "novelty" the results prove somewhat disappointing except in certain areas like mode 4 and transparency. Other issues in which, in view of the intensity of WTO DDA debates, one would have expected a lot of bilateral creativity, such as domestic regulation, safeguards and recognition provisions show themselves to be surprisingly embryonic. Finally anecdotal evidence, gathered for instance during the drafting by the WTO Secretariat of Trade Policies Reviews and factual presentations on RTAs suggest that in numerous instances, provisions relating to future negotiations or even regular meetings are not implemented thereby casting doubt on the effective impact of RTA provisions (including diverging ones) on trade realities.
Special and Differential Treatment in the WTO
Special and differential treatment (S&D) for developing countries continues to be a defining feature of the multilateral trading system. This paper seeks to address key aspects of what has become an increasingly entangled and multi-faceted discussion. The paper begins by reviewing the historical context in which the relationship of developing countries with the multilateral trading system evolved. The paper distinguishes several elements in the case typically made for S&D. It argues that concerns about graduation — the definition of which countries qualify for special treatment —have complicated progress on this issue, suggesting that a focus on measures rather than on country status would obviate this difficulty, while at the same time increasing the analytical underpinning of the case for special and differential treatment. The paper explores various forms of S&D and develops arguments for particular approaches to the design and management of access to S&D. An illustration is provided of how a more analytical approach would work by defining eligibility automatically in relation to measures rather than countries.
Financial Services Trade, Capital Flows, and Financial Stability
This study argues that trade policies regarding financial services are an important—but often neglected—determinant of capital flows and financial sector stability. Financial services trade liberalisation which promotes the use of a broad spectrum of financial instruments and allows the presence of foreign financial institutions whilst not unduly restricting their business practices, results in less distorted and less volatile capital flows, and promotes financial sector stability. The study finds significant evidence in favour of this claim through an empirical analysis of GATS commitments in 27 emerging markets. For example, countries which experienced financial crisis during 1991-97 show a combined indicator of financial services trade restrictiveness three times as high (= less favourable for financial stability) as countries without a crisis. The study' s findings have two important policy implications. Firstly, liberalising international trade in financial services can be a market-based means to improve the "quality" of capital flows and to strengthen financial systems. This would complement other policies, including financial regulation. Secondly, even in countries where the financial system is weak, and where immediate, full-fledged financial sector liberalisation is not advisable, certain types of financial services trade could be liberalised, as such trade strengthens the financial system without provoking destabilising capital flows.
Managing Capital Flows in Transition Economies with a Case-Study of Central and Eastern Europe
Management of capital inflows has unexpectedly become a major challenge in transition economies. These countries were expected to have an insatiable demand for foreign capital, and an excess demand for capital inflows was, therefore, predicted by most observers. Foreign investors are also known to be very selective in their choice of markets, and these countries were a big unknown. Moreover, macroeconomic policy in these countries has been dominated by the objective of disinflation. We explain in this paper the reasons why some transition countries have been an attractive market for foreign investors and how important has foreign capital been for these countries. But the bulk of the paper provides an assessment of government policies to manage foreign capital inflows. We evaluate the policies against the background of different government objectives and in terms of the actual policy instruments used by the monetary authorities, the timing and sequencing and the costs of these interventions. We argue that the initial responses to capital surges were poor; the authorities were reluctant to adjust their original policies and learn from the experiences elsewhere. Eventually, their policy responses were changed but until the costs of inertia became too high. The authorities have effectively used sterilization policies, more flexible exchange rate policies combined with tight monetary and fiscal policies. They also understood that an effective management of capital flows must start from well functioning markets, and have been prepared to adopt structural policies whenever market imperfections could be identified.
21st Century Regionalism
This paper weaves several sets of facts into an argument that: 1) today’s trade is radically more complex, involving a “trade-investment-service nexus”, 2) this 21st century trade demanded deeper disciplines which were supplied by “21st century regionalism” while the WTO was otherwise occupied, and 3) 21st century regionalism has quite different implications for the world trading system than the traditional thinking suggests. The paper also argues that the traditional thinking (building-stumbling-block and Vinerian economics) is not up to the job of analysing 21st century regionalism. An alternative framework is not provided, but elements a new approach should encompass are discussed.
The EU Model and Turkey
The customs union between the European Union (EU) and Turkey, which entered into force in January 1996, extended and deepened the Association Agreement, signed in 1964 and which foreshadows full EU membership for Turkey. In a number of areas, the new relationship goes beyond the minimum requirements for a customs union: Turkey is also having to implement a number of measures which are part of the acquis communautaire, similar to those applicable within the EU. This paper addresses the question whether this adoption of the EU model is beneficial to Turkey and third countries. The importance of this issue is the spreads of this model through the extension of the EU itself and the building of an increasing web of partnerships between the EU and other countries in Central and Eastern Europe as well as Mediterranean countries. Moreover, other regions are looking at the EU model as a way in which to deepen their own preferential trading arrangements.
Clustering Value-Added Trade
The paper builds a typology of value-added traders according to their economic and trade policy characteristics. In the process, it defines clusters of countries according to the multidimensional criteria defined by value-added, economic and trade policy indicators. A second approach focuses on the relationships existing between the variables themselves, using multicriteria and graph analysis. Natural resources endowments, on the one hand, and services orientation, on the other one, are among the most determinant variables for defining Trade in Value Added (TiVA) clusters. The level of economic development remains a crucial determinant of the TiVA profile as is the size of the economy, even if not as important as initially expected. Proactive GVC up-grading strategies, such as investments in ICT and R&D tend to foster a higher foreign content in exports, compensating the lower domestic margin by higher volumes. Inwardoriented protectionist policies are not particularly successful in exporting higher share of domestic content, except in services exports; but in this case, export volumes remain marginal.
Poison in the Wine?
Commitments in regional trade agreements (RTAs) that fall short of the same countries' obligations under the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) are a relatively frequent phenomenon. However, they have gone widely unnoticed in the literature to date and drawn very little attention in relevant WTO fora either. Nevertheless, 'minus commitments' are potentially poisonous and, for various reasons, would deserve close attention. Given the broad definitional scope of the GATS, extending inter alia to commercial presence, such commitments may impinge upon the rights of third-country investors in the RTA economies. Their existence casts doubts on the legal status of the respective agreements under the GATS and can have severe implications for the trading system overall. If not complemented by comprehensive Most-favoured-Nation clauses, the RTAs concerned are disconnected from the WTO and virtually impossible to multilateralize. Based on a review of some 80,000 commitments in 66 agreements, this study seeks to develop a reasonably comprehensive picture of the frequency of 'minus commitments' and their dosage in terms of sectors, measures and modes of supply. It also discusses potential remedies from a WTO perspective.
Product Standards and Margins of Trade: Firm Level Evidence
This paper analyses the trade effects of restrictive product standards on the margins of trade for a large panel of French firms. To focus on restrictive product standards only, we use a new database compiling the list of measures that have been raised as concerns in dedicated committees of the WTO. We restrict our analysis to the subset of Sanitary and Phyto-Sanitary (SPS) regulatory measures and analyse the effects of product standards on three variables: (i) probability to export and to exit the export market (firm-product extensive margins), (ii) value exported (firm-product intensive margin) and (iii) export prices. In particular we study whether firms size, market shares and export orientation modify the effect of SPS measures. We find that SPS measures discourage exports. We also find a negative effect of SPS imposition on the intensive margins of trade. This paper analyses the trade effects of restrictive product standards on the margins of trade for a large panel of French firms. To focus on restrictive product standards only, we use a new database compiling the list of measures that have been raised as concerns in dedicated committees of the WTO. We restrict our analysis to the subset of Sanitary and Phyto-Sanitary (SPS) regulatory measures and analyse the effects of product standards on three variables: (i) probability to export and to exit the export market (firm-product extensive margins), (ii) value exported (firm-product intensive margin) and (iii) export prices. In particular we study whether firms size, market shares and export orientation modify the effect of SPS measures. We find that SPS measures discourage exports. We also find a negative effect of SPS imposition on the intensive margins of trade. Finally, the negative effects of SPS measures on the extensive and intensive margins of trade are attenuated for big firms.
Exporting under Trade Policy Uncertainty
Policy uncertainty can delay investment and reduce the response to policy change. I provide theoretical and novel quantitative evidence for these effects by focusing on trade policy, a ubiquitous but often overlooked source of uncertainty, when a firm's cost of export market entry is sunk. While an explicit purpose of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is to secure long term market access, little theoretical and empirical work analyzes the value of WTO institutions for reducing uncertainty for prospective exporters. Within a dynamic model of heterogeneous firms, I show that trade policy uncertainty will delay the entry of exporters into new markets and make them less responsive to applied tariff reductions. Policy instruments that reduce or eliminate uncertainty such as binding trade policy commitments at the WTO can increase entry even when applied protection is unchanged. I test the model using a disaggregated and detailed dataset of product level Australian imports in 2004 and 2006. I use the variation in tariffs and binding commitments across countries, products and time, to construct model-consistent measures of uncertainty. The estimates indicate that lower WTO commitments increase entry. Reducing trade policy uncertainty is at least as effective quantitatively as unilateral applied tariff reductions for Australia. These results illuminate and quantify an important new channel for trade creation in the world trade system.
Services Liberalization from a WTO/GATS Perspective: In Search of Volunteers
There has been virtually no liberalization under the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) to date. Most existing commitments are confined to guaranteeing the levels of access that existed in the mid-1990s, when the Agreement entered into force, in a limited number of sectors. The only significant exceptions are the accession schedules of recent WTO Members and the negotiating results in two sectors (financial services and, in particular, basic telecommunications) that were achieved after the Uruguay Round. The offers tabled so far in the ongoing Round would not add a lot of substance either. Apparently, negotiators are 'caught between a rock and a hard place'. For one thing, the traditional mercantilist paradigm, relying on reciprocal exchanges of concessions, seems to be provide less momentum than in the goods area. For another, there are additional - technical, economic and political - frictions that tend to render services negotiations more complicated, timeconsuming and resource-intensive. The novelty of the Agreement adds an additional element of legal uncertainty from a negotiator's perspective. This paper discusses various options that might help to overcome the ensuing reticence to engage. Few appear within reach at present, however. The bare minimum that would need to be achieved is to revive work on scheduling and classification issues with a view to putting both existing commitments and new offers on a safer footing, and to improve compliance with long-existing information/notification obligations.
The Economics of Permissible WTO Retaliation
WTO arbitrators rely on economics to establish the permissible retaliation limits authorized by the Dispute Settlement Understanding (DSU) which arguably serves to enforce the overall agreement. We examine how theoretical and quantitative economic analysis has and can be used in this stage of the DSU process. First, we identify, characterize, and categorize the major classes of disputes – e.g., those affecting import protection versus export promotion – and use the Bagwell and Staiger interpretation of the WTO principle of reciprocity to provide a theoretical framework that arbitrators can use to identify the maximum level of retaliatory countermeasures. Second, we allocate each of the ten DSU arbitrations that have taken place thus far into one of these categories and compare the arbitrators’ actual approach with the theory. Third, we use this framework to identify three crucial elements to the arbitrators' decisionmaking process for each case: i) the formula that they decide to adopt for identifying appropriate countermeasures, ii) their political-legal-economic decision on a WTOconsistent counterfactual to use to implement the formula, and iii) the quantitative methods they use to necessarily construct the (unobserved) WTO-consistent counterfactual. We examine not only the arbitrations that have taken place thus far, but our approach also illustrates a template for many additional types of arbitrations likely to take place under the DSU. Finally, in the disputes in which this reciprocity approach has not been used, we identify procedural difficulties that arbitrators confront thus highlighting the constraints that hinder their use of economic analysis in practice.
Simulating World Trade in the Decades Ahead
The geography and composition of international trade are changing fast. We link a macroeconomic growth model and sectoral CGE framework in order to project the world economy forward to the year 2035 and assess to what extent current trends in trade are expected to continue. Constructing fully traceable scenarios based on assumptions grounded in the literature, we are also able to isolate the relative impact of key economic drivers. We find that the stakes for developing countries are particularly high: The emergence of new players in the world economy, intensification of South-South trade and diversification into skill-intensive activities may continue only in a dynamic economic and open trade environment. Current trends towards increased regionalization may be reversed, with multilateral trade relationships gaining in importance. Hypothetical mega-regionals could slow down but not frustrate the prevalence of multilateralism. Continuing technological progress is likely to have the biggest impact on future economic developments around the globe. Population dynamics are influential as well: For some countries, up-skilling will be crucial, for others labour shortages may be addressed through migration. Several developing countries would benefit from increased capital mobility; others will only diversify into dynamic sectors, when trade costs are further reduced.
A New Look at the Extensive Trade Margin Effects of Trade Facilitation
We estimate the effects of trade facilitation on the extensive margins of trade. Using OECD Trade Facilitation Indicators – which closely reflect the Trade Facilitation Agreement negotiated at the Bali WTO Ministerial Conference of December 2013 – we show that trade facilitation in a given exporting country is positively correlated with the number of products exported by destination and with the number of export destinations served by product. To address the issue of causality, we employ an identification strategy whereby only exports of new products, or exports to new destinations, are taken into account when computing the respective margins of trade. Our findings therefore imply a positive causal impact of trade facilitation on the extensive margins of trade. The results are, to a large extent, robust to alternative definitions of extensive margins, to different sets of controls variables and to various estimation methods. Simulating the effect of an increase to the regional or global median values of trade facilitation, we are able to quantify the potential extensive margin gains of trade facilitation reform in different regions.
Trade, Technology, and Prosperity
Trade and technological change continually alter the workplace and labor-market outcomes, with consequences for economy-wide welfare and the distribution of real incomes.
Applied Services Trade Policy
Better information on how services policies vary across economies and sectors over time would improve the empirical analysis of their impact. This paper describes the Services Trade Policy Database (STPD), a joint initiative by the World Bank and the WTO Secretariat, which builds on a database developed by the World Bank nearly ten years ago and draws on a recent OECD database.
Services Trade Liberalization at the Regional Level
This paper discusses the opportunities and challenges for Southern and Eastern African ACP countries of services negotiations in the context of European Partnership Agreements. The paper provides an overview of existing flows in services from and to Southern and Eastern Africa, an overview that suffers from the paucity of relevant data. Given the significant differences among services sectors, the paper provides a separate discussion for several of them, including financial services, tourism and business services. The latest developments in each sector are described and the issues that are at stake in trade negotiations. In this context the competitive position of Southern and Eastern African countries is compared with the position of the European Union and other global players. The paper attempts to identify possible export opportunities for Southern and Eastern African ACP countries and discusses the advantages and disadvantages of giving preferential access to EU suppliers in those services sectors where African countries are likely to import. Particular attention is paid to the role of mode 4 in the discussed services sectors.
Achieving Bangladesh’s Tourism Potential
Bangladesh's international image is not as a popular tourism destination, and many people might be surprised to learn it has three World Heritage sites, including the Sundarbans tiger reserves. Moreover, it is part of important travel circuits for cultural and religious tourism, and has demonstrated potential for sports tourism. The objective of this working paper is to critically test the assertion that pro-poor "green" tourism is one of the best development options for the majority of least developed countries (LDCs) -- a challenging task in Bangladesh in the face of the country's success as an exporter of readymade garments -- by comparing tourism to the available alternatives with regard to the crucial government priorities of export diversification, employment generation and the "green economy". It is well-known that Bangladesh is under strong pressure to diversify its exports, to generate new employment (especially in rural areas), and to respond to critical environmental issues. The government has identified over 30 "thrust sectors" (including tourism) to help address these challenges, but otherwise tourism is rarely mentioned as a major trade and development option for Bangladesh. Within the limitations of data availability, this working paper reaches the conclusion that greater efforts to develop "green" tourism would be highly beneficial for facilitating rural development, environmental and cultural protection, gender equality, and export diversification in services. The most obvious current impediments are inadequate infrastructure, lack of investment and (typically election year) political conflict, but behind these factors appear to be a serious lack of stakeholder coordination, insufficient regulatory and administrative transparency and coherence, as well as some government reluctance to relinquish greater commercial autonomy in tourism to the private sector. This paper offers extensive analysis and some suggestions to help address the impediments, including the recommendation to create a Bangladesh Tourism Stakeholders Forum.
Social Interactions of Migrants and Trade Outcomes
This paper investigates the social interactions performed by immigrants in France. A framework for immigrant’s choice of location is based on recent studies on non-market interactions which explains how migrants concentrate. Applying data on the distribution of immigrants in 95 French provinces, the social interactions are subsequently estimated. This “social component” of migration is then tested on international trade, providing a direct measure of the impact of social networks on the economy.
The COVID-19 pandemic and trade-related developments in LDCs
A new information note published by the WTO Secretariat looks at how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the participation of least-developed countries (LDCs) in global trade. The note stresses that LDCs have seen a significant decline in export earnings due to decreasing demand in key markets, falling commodity prices and a decline in remittances and are likely to be the hardest hit by the crisis due to their limited resources to stimulate growth.