Economic research and trade policy analysis
Trade for Peace Programme
Pathways to Sustainable Trade and Peace
Can the flow of goods, services, and ideas build bridges where conflict once prevailed? If so, under whatcircumstances? The World Trade Organization (WTO) stands for a predictable, rules-based system based on the principle of non-discrimination. When the predecessor to the WTO – the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade – was established some 70 years ago, conflict among nations was at an historic low, following World War II. In the changed global political landscape of today, geopolitical tensions, disruptions to trade and increasing concerns about economic inequality have come to the fore, challenging the foundations of multilateral trade relationships, and trade cooperation more generally. Pathways to Sustainable Trade and Peace is the first WTO publication dedicated to an in-depth exploration of the complex relationship between trade and peace. The publication examines a number of critical questions. How do trade and peace interact? Can trade be leveraged to foster economic development and stability? What can governments and other stakeholders do to foster positive interaction between trade and peace? The volume focuses specifically but not exclusively on fragile and conflict-affected economies, including case studies and analyses from various policy angles.
Acknowledgements
The publication “Pathways to Sustainable Trade and Peace” was prepared under the general responsibility and guidance of Maika Oshikawa, Director of the Accessions Division.
Introduction
Throughout recorded human history, interactions among diverse nations, societies and communities have been shaped by complex combinations of economic, political and social forces. A topical and highly relevant component of these interactions in today’s world relates to linkages between trade and peace.
Foreword by the WTO Director-General
We live in troubled times. Beyond geopolitical tensions, uncertainty in the global economy, and stalling progress on collective challenges from poverty reduction and hunger to climate change, the world is witnessing the highest level of active conflicts since the end of the Second World War. According to the 2024 Global Peace Index compiled by the Institute of Economics and Peace, a think tank, fewer conflicts are being resolved, while they are becoming more internationalized.
Social
The emergent renewable hydrogen sector offers economic and sustainable development opportunities. Many developing economies see new possibilities in participating and profiting from the global energy market, as they have high renewable energy potential and could potentially produce renewable hydrogen and its derivatives at low cost.
Enabling global trade in renewable hydrogen and derivative commodities
Renewable hydrogen and hydrogen-derived commodities – such as ammonia, methanol and e-kerosene — are expected to play an important role in the transition to low-carbon energy because they are essential to decarbonize sectors such as heavy industry and transport. Jointly produced by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and the WTO, this publication highlights the critical role of sound, coherent strategies in promoting the use of renewable hydrogen and hydrogen-derived commodities.
Executive summary
Renewable hydrogen and hydrogen-derived commodities – such as ammonia, methanol and e-kerosene – are expected to play important roles in the energy transition. While most energy consumption can be met using renewable electricity or biofuels by 2050 (IRENA, 2023a), the use of renewable hydrogen and its derived commodities will be required in hard-to-abate sectors, including in industry as feedstocks (e.g. chemical manufacturing, fertiliser production, refining, steel manufacture) and heavy-duty transport as e-fuels (e.g. in maritime transport and aviation). Their use may account for around 14% of final energy consumption in 2050 (IRENA, 2023a).
Conclusions
Hydrogen and hydrogen-derived commodities (ammonia, methanol and e-kerosene) are expected to play a crucial role in the energy transition and – in particular – the decarbonisation of many hard-to-abate end uses across industry and heavy-duty transport.
Foreword
I am delighted to present the World Trade Organization Secretariat’s first comprehensive report on artificial intelligence (AI) and international trade. This report marks a milestone in our efforts to understand the impacts AI is having, and will continue to have, on global trade. As AI continues to evolve and transform the ways we work, live and do business, the global trade community must recognize these impacts and respond to maximize the gains for people, businesses and economies, and minimize potential risks.
Trading with intelligence
How Ai shapes and is shaped by international trade
Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming the way we live, work, produce and trade. As it further develops, AI is expected to unlock unprecedented economic and societal opportunities. However, it is also a source of significant risks and challenges. This report examines the intersection of AI and international trade. It discusses how AI may shape the future of international trade by reducing trade costs, improving productivity and expanding economies' comparative advantages. The report reviews some key trade policy considerations, in particular the urgent need to address the growing AI divide between economies and between large and small firms, as well as data governance and intellectual property issues. It examines how to guarantee the trustworthiness of AI without hindering trade. The report also provides an overview of domestic, regional and international government initiatives to promote and regulate AI, and highlights the resulting risk of regulatory fragmentation. Finally, the report discusses the critical role of the WTO in facilitating AI-related trade, ensuring trustworthy AI and addressing emerging trade tensions, noting that the rapid evolution of AI is prompting questions about the implications of AI for international trade rules.