Information technology and e-commerce
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¿Cómo prepararse para la transformación del comercio asociada a la tecnología?
En la presente sección examinamos cómo puede la cooperación comercial internacional ayudar a los Gobiernos de todo el mundo a aprovechar las tecnologías digitales y las nuevas oportunidades comerciales que estas generarán tanto para las empresas grandes como para las pequeñas. En la sección D.1 se resumen las principales oportunidades y retos asociados a la expansión del comercio electrónico. En la sección D.2 se ofrecen ejemplos de políticas que aplican los Gobiernos para explotar esas oportunidades y abordar esos retos. Por último, en la sección D.3 se analiza en qué medida (y de qué manera) puede la cooperación internacional ayudar a los Gobiernos a explotar los beneficios derivados del comercio electrónico y a afrontar los retos, sin renunciar al logro de sus objetivos de política pública actuales y futuros.
ITA: List of participants
The ITA currently has 53 participants representing 82 WTO members. The European Union is counted as one, as is the customs union between Switzerland and Liechtenstein.
Foreword
We are pleased to deliver preliminary remarks to this compilation of research work on digital trade prepared by the WTO Chairholders, Advisory Board members and the WTO Chairs Programme (WCP) team of the WTO Secretariat.
Remerciements et avertissement
Le Rapport sur le commerce mondial 2018 a été établi sous la responsabilité générale de Xiaozhun Yi, Directeur général adjoint de l’OMC, et de Robert Koopman, Directeur de la Division de la recherche économique et des statistiques. Cette année, la rédaction du rapport a été coordonnée par Cosimo Beverelli et Emmanuelle Ganne. Les auteurs du rapport sont Marc Bacchetta, Eddy Bekkers, Cosimo Beverelli, Emmanuelle Ganne, John Hancock, Mark Koulen, Andreas Maurer, José-Antonio Monteiro, Coleman Nee, Roberta Piermartini, Stela Rubinova, Viktor Stolzenburg, Robert Teh et Ankai Xu (Division de la recherche économique et des statistiques).
International cooperation on innovation policies in the digital age
National innovation policies, like other government policies, serve domestic policy objectives. As discussed in Section C, they can generate both positive and negative international spill-over effects, and some of the mechanisms through which they generate spillovers involve trade. This section focuses on cooperation aimed at addressing the trade-related international spill-overs from innovation policies. Such cooperation could help to ensure that governments have the policy space to pursue innovation policies, and could help to maximize the positive international spill-overs of such policies, while minimizing their negative effects on trading partners.
Comment se préparer à la transformation du commerce induite par la technologie?
La présente section examine comment la coopération commerciale internationale peut aider les gouvernements du monde entier à exploiter les technologies numériques et à saisir les nouvelles possibilités commerciales qu’elles créeront pour les entreprises, grandes et petites. La section D.1 résume les principales possibilités et les principaux défis qui découlent de l’expansion du commerce numérique. La section D.2 donne des exemples des politiques mises en place par les gouvernements pour tirer parti de ces possibilités et relever ces défis. La section D.3 examine ensuite la question de savoir si et comment la coopération internationale peut aider les gouvernements à bénéficier des gains du commerce numérique, à faire face aux défis et, en même temps, à atteindre leurs objectifs de politique publique aujourd’hui et dans l’avenir.
China’s e-commerce development and policy relevance
The dollar value of e-commerce transactions in China has increased enormously over the past 20 years, supported by improved infrastructure, the rapid growth of mobile telephony and increased financing. The market also is characterized by increasing diversity, for example, the growth of e-medical services, the expansion of cross-border e-commerce and the development of online-offline transactions. China’s national government has played an important role in the development of e-commerce through policies elaborated in five-year plans, while regional governments also have participated in planning and adjusting the e-commerce policy framework in light of local conditions.
L’incidence des technologies numériques sur le commerce des pays en développement
En utilisant le modèle de commerce mondial de l’Organisation mondiale du commerce (OMC), un modèle d’équilibre général calculable (EGC) dynamique et récursif, nous examinons les possibles effets futurs des innovations technologiques (robotisation et utilisation de l’intelligence artificielle (IA), servicification du processus de production et baisse des coûts du commerce du fait de l’essor des marchés et plates-formes en ligne) sur le commerce des pays en développement. Les simulations montrent que les évolutions technologiques favoriseront la croissance des échanges grâce à la baisse des coûts du commerce et à une utilisation plus intensive des technologies de l’information et des communications (TIC). En moyenne, entre maintenant et 2030, la croissance du commerce mondial serait de 2 points de pourcentage plus élevée par an grâce aux technologies numériques. En outre, les échanges des pays en développement seraient de 2,5 points de pourcentage plus élevés par an et l’augmentation de leur part dans le commerce mondial sera plus marquée plus ou moins marquée en fonction de la rapidité avec laquelle ils rattrapent les pays plus avancés technologiquement. Autres conclusions des simulations, la part des exportations de services dans le commerce mondial augmentera et représentera plus d’un quart du commerce total d’ici à 2030, et les évolutions technologiques tendent à accroître la part des importations de services dans la production manufacturière brute. Enfin, ces avancées technologiques ne semblent pas présager une relocalisation ou une localisation de la production, ce qui laisse penser que les progrès technologiques futurs iront de pair avec la poursuite de la mondialisation.
Assessing trade facilitation implementation in the era of e-commerce: a comparative analysis of Jordan, Oman and Hong Kong, China
The emergence of e-commerce is driving important changes in the ways of conducting international trade. It has become clear that improvements in trade facilitation implementation should be supported by electronic systems. Through a comparative study of a number of reports issued by international organizations – the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the World Bank – on topics of e-commerce, logistics and trade facilitation, we examined the status and performance of Jordan, Oman and Hong Kong, China. Based on this analysis, Hong Kong, China, shows one of the best practices of modern trade facilitation and customs, and we found that governmental willingness is influential in expediting trade facilitation provisions. Jordan and Oman recently made trade reforms to improve trade facilitation, but they still need to bridge the gap between policy and actual practice in all governmental organizations in terms of trade facilitation and e-commerce, as well as build citizens’ capacity. By improving the implementation of trade facilitation measures and increasing e-commerce capacity as Hong Kong, China
Conclusiones
El progreso tecnológico ha moldeado siempre la estructura del sistema de comercio mundial. La tecnología no es solo un factor determinante de los costos del comercio, sino que también define qué productos se pueden comercializar a través de las fronteras e influye en las tendencias de la ventaja comparativa.
Improving the accounting frameworks for analyses of global value chains
The use of global input-output tables, and the creation of Trade in Value-Added (TiVA) statistics, has greatly improved our understanding of the fragmentation of global production through value chains. However, their application requires a number of assumptions that, in practice, typically understate the degree of interconnectedness. TiVA estimates implicitly assume identical production functions across firms within an industry, when in reality production functions differ considerably. Typically, larger (and foreign-owned) firms tend to be more trade oriented than smaller (and domestically-owned) firms. As a result, TiVA statistics underestimate the import content of exports for the economy as a whole, a key indicator characterizing global production. Moreover, TiVA analyses are based on basic price concepts, which provide an appropriate view of production through value chains, but are less well equipped to analyse consumption, particularly as they exclude significant distribution margins (in particular retail and wholesale activities, often including marketing activities and brands), which add value at the end of the chain. This can distort analyses using “smile curves”, which show the distance from final demand of different sectors within value chains, and in turn understate the scale of jobs supported by trade.
Prólogo
En la era digital, son cada vez más los Gobiernos que han adoptado políticas encaminadas a impulsar el crecimiento por medio de la innovación y la modernización tecnológica. Las repercusiones económicas a nivel nacional asociadas a la pandemia de COVID-19 están llevando a los países a fortalecer esas políticas. En el presente informe se examinan esas tendencias y el papel que desempeñan el comercio y la OMC en este contexto. Se muestra asimismo que la cooperación internacional contribuye de manera significativa a que los países alcancen esos objetivos con mayor eficacia, minimizando al mismo tiempo los efectos indirectos negativos de las políticas nacionales.
Introduction
Au cours des dernières décennies, Internet a fait irruption dans chaque recoin de notre vie des interactions sociales aux loisirs en passant par le travail et a fondamentalement remodelé nos économies, en réduisant considérablement le coût d’acquisition et d’échange de l’information. Il a alimenté la révolution numérique, modifiant radicalement notre façon de communiquer, de consommer et de produire, et il a profondément transformé le commerce international et ce qui est échangé, par qui et de quelle façon.
Foreword
In the digital age, a growing number of governments have adopted policies aimed at boosting growth through innovation and technological upgrading. The domestic economic fallout linked to the COVID-19 pandemic is leading countries to strengthen these policies. This report looks at these trends, and at how trade and the WTO fit in. It shows that there is a significant role for international cooperation to make countries’ pursuit of such goals more effective, while minimizing negative spill-overs from national policies.
Global value chains in the age of internet: what opportunities for Africa?
This chapter analyses the impact of the internet on global value chains (GVCs) in Africa. We investigate the effect of internet adoption on forward participation and backward participation of African countries in GVCs. We conduct the estimations using country-level data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Eora GVC database and firm-level data from the World Bank’s Enterprise Survey. We test whether internet adoption facilitates the participation of Africa in GVCs at the country level and the firm level. We find that internet use and internet infrastructure are more important for African firms and African countries in terms of forward GVC participation. To conclude, empirical results show that the internet increases GVC participation in Africa. African countries and firms need to improve internet infrastructure in order to make the best of integration into GVCs.
Technical notes
WTO members are frequently referred to as “countries”, although some members are not countries in the usual sense of the word but are officially “customs territories”. The definition of geographical and other groupings in this report does not imply an expression of opinion by the WTO Secretariat concerning the status of any country or territory, the delimitation of its frontiers, nor the rights and obligations of any WTO member in respect of WTO agreements. The colours, boundaries, denominations and classifications in the maps of the publication do not imply, on the part of the WTO, any judgement on the legal or other status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of any boundary.
Repercusión de las tecnologías digitales en el comercio de los países en desarrollo
A partir del Modelo de Comercio Mundial de la Organización Mundial del Comercio (OMC), un modelo de equilibrio general computable, recursivo y dinámico, examinamos las posibles repercusiones futuras de las innovaciones tecnológicas, en forma de robotización y uso de la inteligencia artificial, la terciarización del proceso de producción y la disminución de los costos del comercio debido al aumento de los mercados y plataformas en línea en el comercio de los países en desarrollo. Según las simulaciones, los cambios tecnológicos impulsarán un mayor crecimiento del comercio como consecuencia de la caída de los costos del comercio y el uso más intensivo de los servicios de la tecnología de la información y las comunicaciones (TIC). En promedio, de aquí a 2030, el crecimiento del comercio mundial aumentaría en 2 puntos porcentuales al año gracias a las tecnologías digitales. Además, el crecimiento del comercio de los países en desarrollo se incrementaría 2,5 puntos porcentuales al año. El aumento de la parte correspondiente a esos países en el comercio mundial será más acusado cuanto más rápido sean capaces de ponerse al día tecnológicamente. Otra conclusión de las simulaciones es que las exportaciones de servicios representarán una parte mayor del comercio mundial (más de una cuarta parte del comercio total en 2030), y que los cambios tecnológicos tienden a aumentar la proporción de las importaciones de servicios en la producción manufacturera bruta. Por último, esos avances tecnológicos no parecen presagiar una relocalización o localización de la producción, lo que indica que los futuros cambios tecnológicos pueden ir de la mano de una globalización continua.
Introduction
All over the world, governments are actively and openly intervening in economies to boost innovation, generate new technologies, and foster cutting-edge industries. These interventions can have positive or negative impacts, especially in today’s hyper-connected global economy. On the one hand, they can expand knowledge, enhance productivity and spread the essential tools of global growth and development. But on the other hand, they can also distort trade, divert investment and benefit one economy at the expense of others. International cooperation and rules are needed more than ever to ensure that governments’ new focus on innovation and technology policies maximizes positive spill-overs and minimizes negative ones – and to ensure that a race for technological leadership does not morph into a struggle for technological dominance. The 2020 World Trade Report looks at the role of innovation and technology policies in an increasingly digitalized world economy, and explains the role of the WTO in this changing context.