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WTO Working Papers
WTO working papers usually represent research in progress. Such research may be conducted in the preparation of WTO Secretariat reports, studies or other material for WTO members. The papers are circulated for comment because the WTO considers critical review of professional research to be extremely important.
1 - 20 of 293 results
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Trade and Welfare Effects of the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement
Publication Date: February 2023More LessThe WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) has been predicted to bring about an expansion in trade flows and real income gains. To date, there is still very limited empirical evidence on the actual post-implementation impact of the TFA. This paper provides an assessment, combining econometric estimations from a structural gravity model with general equilibrium modelling results.
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How will global trade patterns evolve in the long run?
Authors: World Trade Organization, Eddy Bekkers, Erwin Corong, Jeanne Métivier and Daniil OrlovPublication Date: January 2023More LessIn this paper the evolution of global trade patterns until 2050 is projected with a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Feeding the model with exogenous projections on macroeconomic, demographic, sectoral and trade cost variables, the evolution of trade patterns emerges endogenously from the model. The approach is innovative in both modelling approach and exogenous inputs. GDP growth emerges endogenously in the model because of diffusion of ideas as a result of international trade and trade cost changes are based on estimates of technology and trade policy changes.
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International trade cooperation’s impact on the world economy
Authors: World Trade Organization, Jeanne Métivier, Marc Bacchetta, Eddy Bekkers and Robert KoopmanPublication Date: January 2023More LessIn this study, we investigate three trade policy scenarios: i) the revival of multilateralism, ii) plurilateral cooperation, and iii) geopolitical rivalry. In the first scenario, both tariffs and NTMs are reduced on a multilateral basis. In the second scenario, varying groups of countries cooperate on specific topics, such as E-commerce and services. In the last scenario, two main blocks emerge: a Western block and an Eastern block. International cooperation breaks down between blocks, leading to an increase in tariffs and NTMs, with blocks of countries setting up their own set of rules. Our findings are based on simulations with the WTO Global trade Model which has a specific novel feature: the diffusion of ideas between countries as a by-product of trade.
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A Novel Framework to Evaluate Changes in Access to and Costs of Trade Finance
Authors: World Trade Organization, Marc Auboin, Eddy Bekkers and Dario De QuartiPublication Date: January 2023More LessIn this paper we integrate the costs of trade finance in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to evaluate the trade and output effects of counterfactual policy experiments on costs of and access to trade finance. The costs of financing international trade consist of two components: the financial costs and the costs associated with the risk of goods not being delivered, considering risk aversion of traders. These costs are determined for four ways to finance international trade (cash-in-advance, trade loans, letters of credit, and exports financed with internal working capital). Trade finance costs are a weighted average of the costs under the four different ways of financing.
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Trade policy implications of a changing world
Authors: World Trade Organization, Adam Jakubik, Alexander Keck and Roberta PiermartiniPublication Date: November 2022More LessEconomic theory suggests that countries' tariff commitments in trade agreements reflect their import market power at the time of negotiations. However, as countries grow, their market power in different sectors can change in unforeseen ways and their commitments may no longer reflect changed economic conditions. Using a newly built dataset of pre-Uruguay Round applied tariffs and relying on the theoretical framework of the terms-of-trade motive for trade agreements, we estimate hypothetical tariff commitments under current levels of market power and compare them with actual tariff commitments.
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Means of Liberalization and Beyond
Authors: World Trade Organization, Ruosi Zhang and Chuwankorn SasanabanchakulPublication Date: September 2022More LessThe scheduling approach constitutes a key element of services trade agreements as it is the means to pursue liberalization. This paper provides an overview of the scheduling approaches adopted in 187 trade agreements notified under GATS Article V as of 30 April 2022, analyses the differences between the positive and negative list approaches, and discusses their implications for negotiation strategies and trade policies.
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Regulatory disciplines on the mobility of service professionals
Authors: World Trade Organization, Antonia Carzaniga and Swati SharmaPublication Date: August 2022More LessWhen it comes to services traded through the international movement of individuals (mode 4), Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) have increasingly adopted trade-facilitating disciplines that both build upon and innovate the GATS framework. By analysing relevant provisions of RTAs, we are able to identify trends and commonalities in approach.
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The future of global value chains and the role of the WTO
Authors: World Trade Organization and Uri DadushPublication Date: August 2022More LessDisruptions to global value chains (GVCs) — caused by conflicts, natural disasters, and accidents that close transport routes — and that affect specific regions or sectors, are not unusual. However, in recent years and amid the Covid-19 pandemic, they have become more frequent and severe. High profile, sizeable, and repeated disruptions raise pressing questions: Is the breakdown in many GVCs a temporary glitch, or a permanent phenomenon? Have GVCs become endemically more accident prone, and why? And if so, are firms going to rely less on them? If a sustained withdrawal from GVCs occurs, how will business models be reshaped, and what will be the consequences for growth and inflation? How will the global trading system be affected? In short, policymakers want to know, what is the future of GVCs?
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Comparing different approaches to tackle the challenges of global carbon pricing
Authors: World Trade Organization, Eddy Bekkers and Gianmarco CariolaPublication Date: July 2022More LessClimate change mitigation faces two main policy challenges: the need for global cooperation to tackle the collective action problem and the need to share the burden of global carbon pricing fair way following the principle of common but differentiated responsibility (CBRD). In this paper we explore the best ways to incentivize regions to reduce their CO2 emissions while minimizing the welfare losses for low-income countries using simulations with a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model.
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The Impact of Geopolitical Conflicts on Trade, Growth, and Innovation
Authors: World Trade Organization, Carlos Góes and Eddy BekkersPublication Date: July 2022More LessGeopolitical conflicts have increasingly been a driver of trade policy. We study the potential effects of global and persistent geopolitical conflicts on trade, technological innovation, and economic growth. In conventional trade models the welfare costs of such conflicts are modest. We build a multi-sector multi-region general equilibrium model with dynamic sector-specific knowledge diffusion, which magnifies welfare losses of trade conflicts. Idea diffusion is mediated by the input-output structure of production, such that both sector cost shares and import trade shares characterize the source distribution of ideas.
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Preference utilization in the global economy
Authors: World Trade Organization, Gianmarco Cariola and Rainer LanzPublication Date: May 2022More LessThis paper analyses the determinants of preference utilization using a novel WTO dataset that allows us to measure the underutilization of preferences across several importers, exporters and products over time. Building on the previous literature, we confirm that preference utilization is increasing with the size of exports, preference margin and geographical and linguistic proximity. We find that utilization rates tend to be higher for reciprocal preferences compared to non-reciprocal preferences, and that the incentive to use preferences increases with the share of competitors’ exports that is eligible for preferential treatment.
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Applying import-adjustmed demand methodology to trade analysis during the COVID-19 crisis
Authors: World Trade Organization, Marc Auboin and Floriana BorinoPublication Date: March 2022More LessIn this paper, we estimated the standard (macro-economic) import equation over the period 1995-2021Q2, using an import intensity-adjusted measure of aggregate demand (IAD) calculated from input-output tables at country level, and compared the results with regressions using GDP. Initially introduced by Bussière (2013), this "synthetic" concept of IAD was perfected, inter alia, by the IMF (2016) and by us (2017), with a view to explaining the "missing" trade flows unpredicted by GDP-based import models during the trade collapse of 2009 and subsequent recovery from it.
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B2B E-commerce marketplaces and MSMES
Authors: World Trade Organization, Maxime Ladrière, Kathryn Lundquist and Qing YePublication Date: March 2022More LessIn theory, e-commerce marketplaces connect buyers and sellers, open trade opportunities, and reduce transaction costs thereby creating opportunities for more inclusive trade and even GVC participation, especially for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). Further, there is some evidence that MSMEs are more likely to use e-commerce marketplaces than large firms given these websites reduce search frictions and transaction costs, which can be relatively more beneficial for smaller firms.
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COVID-19 vs. GFC
Authors: World Trade Organization, Socrates Kraido Majune and Kemal TürkcanPublication Date: March 2022More LessThis study describes trade margins (intensive and extensive) and establishes determinants of the mid-point export and import growth during the global financial crisis (GFC) and COVID-19 pandemic by relying on Kenya’s monthly customs transaction data (at 6-digit level of Harmonized System) for the period January 2006–June 2020. Exports fell during the two crises, of which the intensive margin was responsible for the drop during GFC while the extensive margin dominated the COVID-19 era. Imports are mainly driven by the extensive margin which grew during GFC but declined during the pandemic.
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The impact of LDC graduation on trade
Authors: World Trade Organization, Eddy Bekkers and Gianmarco CariolaPublication Date: February 2022More LessSeveral Least-Developed Countries (LDCs) will graduate from the LDC status in the coming decade implying that they will lose preferential access to export markets. We quantify the expected impact of LDC graduation on exports of graduating and non-graduating LDCs incorporating detailed preference utilization data in a partial equilibrium model. We compare the results under actual and full preference utilization rates. Separately, we explore how underutilization of tariff preferences affects the exports of countries benefiting from such preferences.
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Communication break down
Publication Date: February 2022More LessAlthough a growing number of regional trade agreements (RTAs) include telecommunications provisions, the collection and systematization of information on telecommunications provisions in RTAs remain limited. This paper addresses this gap by mapping and reviewing the different types of provisions on telecommunications found in RTAs that have been notified to the World Trade Organization (WTO).
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Innovation and patenting activities of COVID-19 vaccines in WTO members
Authors: World Trade Organization, Ting-Wei (Alex) Chiang and Xiaoping WuPublication Date: February 2022More LessThis working paper provides a statistical analysis of 74 patent families which cover subject matter relevant to ten COVID-19 vaccines. These vaccines have accounted for 99% of the global COVID-19 vaccine production as of 31 December 2021, comprising over ten billion doses.
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How do environmental policies affect green innovation and trade?
Authors: World Trade Organization, Francesco S. Bellelli and Ankai XuPublication Date: January 2022More LessThis study investigates how environmental policies impact trade and innovation in environmental goods. We make two major contributions to the economic debate. First, we extract a set of information from the WTO Environmental Database (EDB) through natural language processing techniques that could be useful for future research and policy analysis. Second, we use this data to test a set of economic hypotheses on how environmental measures impact environmental innovation and trade.
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Services Domestic Regulation
Publication Date: September 2021More LessServices is the fastest-growing sector of today's global economy and trade in services is the most dynamic segment of world trade. However, its potential remains constrained by a variety of barriers: trade costs are estimated to be almost double those in goods, and more than 40% of trade costs are accounted for by regulation-related factors. Regulatory measures related to the permission to supply a service, i.e. those related to licensing and qualifications requirements and procedures, and technical standards, can particularly affect service suppliers' ability to trade. With a view to mitigating the unintended trade-restrictive effects of such measures, since 2017, a group of Members has been negotiating a set of regulatory disciplines in the context of the Joint Initiative on Services Domestic Regulation.
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Assessing the Supply Chain Effect of Natural Disasters
Publication Date: July 2021More LessThis paper uses Chinese firm level data to detect the international propagation of adverse shocks triggered by the US hurricane season in 2005. We provide evidence that Chinese processing manufacturers with tight trade linkages to the United States reduced their intermediate imports from the United States between July and October 2005.
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