Economic research and trade policy analysis

A general equilibrium analysis accounts for all the direct and indirect linkages between the various elements in the economic system considered (e.g. countries or sectors), while imposing and satisfying all goods/services market-clearing and resource market-clearing conditions.

Les ressources naturelles sont indispensables à la vie humaine. Les ressources non renouvelables, comme le pétrole et le gaz naturel, fournissent l’énergie nécessaire à la production de presque tous les biens et services. Les ressources renouvelables, comme les forêts, les poissons et les aquifères, sont parmi les ressources naturelles les plus précieuses de la planète. Si elles sont bien gérées, elles peuvent fournir de façon continue des produits qui contribuent grandement à la qualité de la vie humaine. Les ressources naturelles occupent une place de plus en plus importante dans le commerce mondial; elles représentaient environ 24 pour cent du commerce total de marchandises en 2008. Le volume de ces échanges est resté assez stable au cours des dix dernières années mais leur valeur a augmenté de 20 pour cent par an.

Cambodia was the first least-developed country to complete negotiations to become a member of the WTO. Its negotiations took place in the context of the Decision on LDC accessions taken by the WTO General Council in December 2002, in which WTO members agreed that they would be bound by certain restraints in dealing with LDCs seeking to join the WTO. Given the constraints that, as an LDC, it faced when entering the negotiations, Cambodia recognised that joining the WTO could play an important part in accelerating its growth and development. This chapter describes Cambodia’s approach to the accession negotiations: its negotiating strategy, the negotiations themselves and their outcome and Cambodia’s post-accession activities. The foundation of all international trading arrangements is the WTO, its concepts and its rules, most of which are carried over into preferential trading arrangements. Being a member of the WTO provides a member’s traders with the transparent and predictable trading environment that they need to prosper. It can truly be said that being a WTO member is one of the main pillars of Cambodia’s successful economic performance.

During the past three decades, the development of highly integrated global value chains in which products are supplied, manufactured and distributed across national boundaries have created a new form of division of labour among Asian economies, especially in North-East and South-East Asia (IDE-JETRO and WTO, 2011). The rapid growth of global value chains has dramatically changed production patterns, international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) in the region, with a notable expansion of intra-regional trade through multiple border crossings of parts and components (ESCAP, 2009).

Economic integration is proceeding across the world at an unprecedented pace. Globalization has brought enormous benefits for many countries and citizens. But some have been on the losing end of the process, and opposition to further integration is mounting for a multitude of reasons. Trade is just one aspect of globalization, and links with broader economic, political and technological forces are manifold and complex. Certain arguments against open trade are fuelled by a variety of factors – including a general fear of change – that have little to do with further trade opening. Governments responding to antitrade pressures stemming from anti-globalization arguments risk making poor policy choices. Trade scepticism is clearly a cause of concern, particularly at a time when WTO members are striving to complete the Doha Round. At this crucial juncture, it seems appropriate to revisit the case for trade and to ask ourselves whether the traditional arguments in favour of free trade are still valid.

The story of economic progress is a story of economic change. It is a story in which whole industries can rise and fall, replaced by new ideas and innovations, which demand new skills. This relentless process of transformation has built the global economy of today, bringing growing prosperity for billions of people around the world – and it has made the ability to adjust and adapt an essential element of economic success. Now, as before, individuals, firms and societies are striving to respond to rapidly evolving economic conditions in order to share in the benefits. The difference today is the remarkable speed at which these changes are occurring.

El Informe sobre el Comercio Mundial 2006 ha sido elaborado bajo la supervisión general del Director General Adjunto Alejandro Jara. Patrick Low, Director de la División de Estudios Económicos y Estadística, dirigió el equipo encargado de redactar el Informe. Los autores principales del Informe son Marc Bachetta, Bijit Bora, K. Michael Finger, Marion Jansen, Alexander Keck, Clarisse Morgan, Roberta Piermartini y Robert Teh. Las estadísticas comerciales fueron facilitadas por el grupo de estadística de la División de Estudios Económicos y Estadística, bajo la coordinación de Guy Karsenty, Julia de Verteuil, Andreas Maurer y Jürgen Richtering.

En esta sección se examinan los efectos de la tecnología en el nivel y la composición del empleo y en los salarios. El progreso tecnológico, al incrementar la productividad de los factores de producción, amplía la frontera de posibilidades de producción de una economía de forma que esta puede producir lo mismo con menos recursos, o producir más con la misma cantidad de recursos.

This chapter explores how non-state actors (NSAs) seek to influence government policy in relation to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and preferential trade agreements (PTAs) as alternative venues for international trade cooperation. Little research has been done on NSA–government interaction on trade policy development in Jordan, and almost no analysis exists that captures and contrasts this interaction in relation to multilateral as opposed to bilateral or plurilateral negotiations. This chapter, based on interviews with representatives of government and NSAs, focuses on recent developments in Jordan’s trade policy-making. It has found that NSA activity in Jordan is relatively weakly developed compared with the other cases in this study, but that it is growing, in large part as a result of the influence of international actors, including US foreign aid donors and some other international business and civil society organizations (CSOs).

D’après une étude publiée par le Parlement européen en 2017, la chaîne de blocs pourrait « changer nos vies » (Boucher, 2017). Ce que montrent les différentes applications de la chaîne de blocs qui sont mises au point dans des domaines aussi divers que le financement du commerce, la facilitation des échanges, le commerce des services, la propriété intellectuelle et les marchés publics, c’est que la chaîne de blocs peut avoir un impact considérable sur les opérateurs commerciaux et sur les organismes gouvernementaux participant au commerce international. Les possibilités sont multiples, mais elles ne seront réalisées que si plusieurs défis clés sont relevés.

Social protection refers to publicly provided safety nets of two kinds. The first type is poverty alleviation measures which help people who are born poor or who lack the productive assets or skills to get out of poverty. The second type consists of social insurance programmes or other labour market interventions that allow people to deal with labour market risk. The focus of this chapter is on the social protection systems of the latter type which protect individuals against the negative consequences of labour market changes caused by external shocks.

En el presente capítulo se examinan las iniciativas relacionadas con el comercio y el empoderamiento económico de las mujeres que llevan a cabo los Gobiernos, la sociedad civil, el sector privado y las instituciones multilaterales. Se da prioridad a las medidas que podrían ser más eficaces para abrir los mercados a las mujeres y reforzar su capacidad comercial. También se señalan los riesgos que plantea el comercio para las mujeres trabajadoras y se proponen políticas para mitigarlos. El capítulo concluye con un examen de las iniciativas emprendidas por el Banco Mundial y la OMC para abordar la cuestión del comercio y el género.

This chapter proposes a holistic framework by which acceding governments may evaluate the macroeconomic impact of joining the WTO. Because both acceding governments and WTO members are interested in preserving their own systemic stability and the stability of the multilateral trading system, evaluation of the Accession Package can be achieved by examining its impact on the domestic and external stability of the acceding country. The chapter concludes that, in the long run, the impact should be positive, and should be driven by better resource allocation as the acceding economy opens to international trade, makes deep structural reforms and aligns its institutions and policies with internationally recognised standards. However, in the short term, implementation of WTO commitments may lead to substantial adjustment costs in the public and private sectors. Overall, the design and implementation of WTO accession commitments is a matter of public policy that should aim to promote systemic stability and accelerate domestic reform, while addressing transitional costs.

Global Value Chains (GVCs) represent the dominant form of cross-border economic organization for the production and delivery of goods and services, and developing countries have to deal with them to maintain and enhance their participation in the global economy. While GVCs are the product of the significant changes that have taken place in the global economy over the last three decades and market forces largely determine their scope and direction, governments still have an important role to play in influencing the nature and terms of participation of their firms. The ongoing expansion of trade in services has added a significant new dimension to GVCs and offers another avenue for developing countries to grow their economies. This paper looks at policy challenges and opportunities that global and regional value chains raise for developing countries and argues that proactive policy measures can improve outcomes for these countries. However, GVCs pose particular problems for small, poor countries with weak governance structures to maintain and improve their participation in the global trading system. GVCs require a robust multilateral rule-making process in order to enhance their economic and political sustainability.

The emergence of global value chains – whereby goods that used to be produced within one country are now fragmented and distributed across global networks of production – has offered developing countries new opportunities to integrate into the global economy. This has also had fundamental impacts for workers in developing countries. The chapter shows that higher earnings and employment within sectors and firms is associated with GVC integration, which also supports other spillovers that operate through labor markets. But it has also had distributional implications of where jobs go and the types of jobs they are. Jobs growth has occurred directly in the export sector, as well as indirectly through linkages of exporting firms to domestic, input-supplying firms. Employment creation and wage gains have been biased towards more skilled workers in developing countries, which contrasts with the predictions of trade theory. The skill-biased nature of GVC trade is associated with increased complexity of global supply chains as well as increased use of skill-intensive inputs, notably services. New emerging trends, including automation and digitization, may further determine how employment in developing countries will be affected by GVC trade in the future. The findings point to education as well as trade and labor policies as important factors for strengthening the GVC-labor relationship.

Geographical indications are signs used to identify the origin of goods characterized by a given quality or reputation that is essentially linked to their geographical origin. They preserve traditional knowledge, foster the growth of local production and satisfy the needs of increasingly quality-conscious and demanding global consumers. Governments acceding to the World Trade Organization (WTO) have reformed their rules on geographical indications in order to achieve WTO consistency. In doing so, they have added value to the multilateral trading system by clarifying the scope of WTO obligations in the field of geographical indications in the following ways: minimum standards of protection; requirements for application to geographical indication protection; the relationship between geographical indications and trademarks; and the scope of substantive provisions with regard to geographical indications. This heightened understanding of the regulation of geographical indications has set new standards in the multilateral trading system. Acceding economies have followed international best practices and sometimes gone a step further by undertaking commitments that exceed those in effect among incumbent WTO members. Rule-making on geographical indications has also helped to prevent disputes on related issues. The lessons learned in the WTO accession process can serve other developing countries and emerging economies to unravel the legal and economic potential of geographical indications.

La présente section porte sur la politique en matière d'innovation et traite des raisons qui la justifient d'un point de vue économique ainsi que de son impact concret. Pour qu'il y ait innovation, il faut que de nouvelles connaissances soient créées grâce à l'investissement dans la recherche, puis diffusées par le système éducatif ou les publications, les brevets et l'échange d'idées. Lorsque des entreprises ou des pouvoirs publics soutiennent le progrès technologique en utilisant ces connaissances ou leur présence dans des inventions pour changer des processus, des comportements ou des technologies, la croissance économique peut être affectée en fonction de plusieurs paramètres. Dans tous les pays, la diffusion des nouvelles technologies dépend des institutions, du niveau d'ouverture économique ainsi que de l'investissement dans l'éducation et la recherche.

A comprehensive review of the literature on global value chains (GVCs) is an ambitious undertaking for at least three reasons. First, the literature is voluminous and the risk of omitting key references is high. Second, the proper study of GVCs requires a multidisciplinary approach, with literature originating from a wide variety of disciplines. This requires an understanding of different intellectual and conceptual approaches. Third, with such a high level of interest in GVCs, the field is a moving target, and new work in the next months and years will warrant an update.

Gone are the days when trade policy decisions were settled by one or two government ministries and conveyed with little ceremony to parliament and the public. Evolving views and practices on participatory decision-making, along with a policy-making environment that continues to grow in complexity, have changed the manner in which national trade policy is formulated. The number of governmental authorities and agencies implicated in national trade policy dialogues has multiplied, and so too has the number and diversity of non-state actors (NSAs) laying claim to a say in policy deliberations.1 This array of parties, including both business and civil society organizations (CSOs), will frequently be pulling governments in different directions. They will also make greater efforts in some policy contexts than others.

Any discussion today of international trade and investment policy that fails to acknowledge the centrality of global value chains (GVCs) would be considered outmoded and of questionable relevance. The idiom might vary – referring to trade in value-added, production sharing, supply chains, outsourcing, offshoring, vertical integration, or fragmented production instead of GVCs – but the core notion of internationally joined-up production is the same. Every international agency dealing with economic affairs as well as many governments are working on various aspects of GVCs in order to understand better their various dimensions. The central concern from this quarter, of course, is what GVCs mean for trade policy and for international cooperation in trade-related matters.

The South African economy is one mired in a long-run, low-level growth trap, which has entrenched high levels of structural unemployment. Further, and as is the case with many middle-income economies, it has struggled with the domestic consequences emanating from a variety of exogenous economic shocks. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the case of contagion effects from the 2008 global crisis and trade-induced shocks – within a world economy that is increasingly defined by its interconnectedness. For South Africa, the real economic impact has been most powerfully felt in the labour market, with current and future employment threatened through these shocks. Thus, the combination of high levels of structural unemployment and the adverse labour market effects associated with exposure to global shocks has necessitated the design of appropriate and effective labour market responses.

Production networks in East Asia, a result of “the second unbundling”, are currently the most advanced in the world, particularly in machinery industries A new type of international division of labour has fundamentally changed the development strategies of less developed countries (LDCs) as well as developed countries’ (DCs) approach to LDCs.

Depuis la crise financière de 2008-2009, l’emploi industriel dans certaines économies a diminué et la concurrence internationale dans les secteurs industriels matures s’est resserrée ; l’évolution de la productivité et des salaires a ralenti et une nouvelle économie reposant sur les technologies numériques est apparue. Dans ce contexte, les politiques industrielles et les politiques en matière d’innovation ont fait l’objet d’un renouveau, et ces « nouvelles politiques industrielles » témoignent d’une dualité inhérente à toutes les phases de la politique publique, dans la mesure où elles visent à accompagner la difficile modernisation des industries traditionnelles, tout en permettant aux économies de s’adapter à la numérisation.