Economic research and trade policy analysis
A ‘Probabilistic’ Approach to the Use of Econometric Models in Sunset Reviews
Economists have increasingly become involved in trade remedy and litigation matters that call for economic interpretation or quantification. The literature on the use of econometric methods in response to legal requirements of trade policy is rather limited. This article contributes to filling this gap by demonstrating the efficacy of using a simple ‘probabilistic’ model in analyzing the ‘likelihood’ of injury to the local industry concerned following a finding of continuation or recurrence of dumping (or countervailable subsidies). The legal concept of ‘likelihood’ is not only particularly well-suited to illustrate the systemic need for trade lawyers and economists to cooperate. It is also of imminent practical relevance with a groundswell of ‘sunset’ reviews looming on the horizon. We discuss the significance of economic analysis for trade remedy investigations by reviewing the literature the applicable WTO rules and in particular the pertinent case law. The potential value of probabilistic simulations for ‘likelihood’ determinations is exemplified using a real-world application. Using data from past United States International Trade Commission investigations we find that a probabilistic model that takes account of the uncertainty surrounding economic parameters reduces the risk of misjudging the effect on the domestic industry of a termination of trade remedies.
The Impact of Mode 4 Liberalization on Bilateral Trade Flows
This paper gives insights into the possible trade creating effects of service trade liberalization via Mode 4. In particular we expect that temporary movements of persons like permanent movements have the potential to reduce transaction costs for merchandise trade between home and host country. Exploiting data on H-1B beneficiaries from different origins in the United States and using a gravity model of trade we find significantly positive effects of temporary movements of persons on bilateral merchandise trade. In addition to this the paper provides insights into the determinants of temporary movements of persons.
Multilateral Solutions to the Erosion of Non-Reciprocal Preferences in NAMA
This paper analyzes the risks of preference erosion arising from MFN trade liberalization in manufactured products. It focuses on developing countries that receive non-reciprocal preferences in the markets of United States EU Japan Canada and Australia. The paper estimates preference margins as the difference between non-reciprocal preferential rates received by individual countries and the best available (MFN or better-than-MFN) treatment received on average by all other suppliers. Most previous work on this subject has compared the preferential rates for individual countries with MFN rates alone which the paper found to have the effect of over-stating the margin at risk from erosion following MFN reductions. The paper also considers the effect of less than full utilization of preference margins by beneficiaries but a lack of data prevented the inclusion of this additional moderating factor relating to erosion risk. The paper finds that developing countries as a whole do not loose from preference erosion following MFN liberalization although significant gains and losses underlie the estimate of the average. Almost all least-developed countries either lose from preference erosion or are unaffected by it because their exports are already largely MFN duty-free. A large number of LDCs are in the latter group. The main sectors where preference erosion occurs are textiles fish and fish products leather and leather products electrical machinery and wood and wood products. As regards trade solutions to preference erosion options are somewhat limited. Improved utilization rates may help certain countries but certainly do not offer a generalized solution. Limited scope exists for expanding the coverage of preference schemes within the destination markets considered in the paper. Other destination markets might offer some prospect but these are limited by the fact that the markets studied dominate the trade flows of the beneficiary countries.
The Economic Impact of EPAs in SADC Countries
The Cotonou Agreement introduces new fundamental principles with respect to trade between the European Union and African Caribbean and Pacific countries relative to the Lomé Convention: in particular non-reciprocal preferential market access for ACP economies will only last until 1 January 2008. After that date it will be replaced by a string of Economic Partnership Agreements meant to progressively liberalise trade in a reciprocal way. The progressive removal of barriers to trade is expected to result in the establishment of Free Trade Agreements between the EU and ACP regional groups in accordance with the relevant WTO rules and help further existing regional integration efforts among the ACP. In this paper an applied general equilibrium model (15 regions 9 sectors) is used to simulate the impact of EPAs for countries of the Southern African Development Community. The standard Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model has been extended to include the elimination of textile quotas EU enlargement to 25 members as well as tax revenue sharing and a common external tariff among Southern African Customs Union countries. A number of comparisons between different scenarios are undertaken in particular: (i) the EPA scenario is compared to the multilateral liberalization scenario; (ii) SADC liberalization with the EU only is compared to a scenario with simultaneous regional integration among African economies and to the case of the EU also signing an FTA with Mercosur; and (iii) a complete reduction of import barriers is contrasted with partial liberalization (i.e. only 50 per cent tariff reductions in agriculture) and with full trade liberalization that includes the elimination of subsidies. The issue of tariff revenue loss is also addressed and the required tax replacement is calculated. Selected experiments are re-run under an unemployment closure. Simulation results show that EPAs with the EU are welfare-enhancing for SADC overall leading also to substantive increases in real GDP. For most countries further gains may arise from intra-SADC liberalization. The possibility of the EU entering an FTA with other countries such as Mercosur reduces estimated gains but they still remain largely positive. Similarly estimated gains need to be revised downwards if agriculture liberalization is not as far reaching as a reduction of import barriers for manufactures. At the sectoral level the largest expansions in SADC economies take place in the animal agriculture and processed food sectors while manufacturing becomes comparatively less attractive following EU-SADC liberalization. Interestingly multilateral liberalization would instead foster some of the manufacturing sectors (textile and clothing and light manufacturing). Results also show the need for the SACU tariff pooling formula to be adjusted to reflect new import patterns as tariffs are removed.
Public Services and the GATS
The status of public services is one of the most hotly debated issues surrounding the GATS. There are two approaches to distinguish such services from any other services: an institutional approach that focuses on the legal and institutional conditions governing supply (e.g. ownership status market organisation) and a functional approach based on the policy objectives that may be involved (e.g. distributional and quality-related considerations concepts of universal access). Given the wide range of institutional arrangements that exist in different jurisdictions with significant variations over time the former approach does not appear appropriate. The services provided by government-owned facilities whose costs are covered directly by the State may well be indistinguishable for all practical purposes from the services provided by private commercial operators whose users (students patients passengers etc.) are reimbursed. This paper discusses the relevance of the GATS for different organisational settings - from government monopolies to regulated and/or subsidized private provision - that may be used by WTO Members to meet typical public service objectives. It turns out that virtually all forms of organisation can be accommodated within the framework of the Agreement. To fully exploit its opportunities and avoid unpleasant surprises however governments would need to thoroughly analyse the relevant provisions in the light of their own policy objectives.
International trade in air transport: Recent developments and policy issues
Air transport like other transport services is associated with international trade in two distinct ways. First air transport is traded as a service in its own right. Second it is a key intermediate service for many other kinds of trade in the domain of both goods and services (such as tourism). Numerous studies have highlighted the importance of an efficient effective and reliable air transport infrastructure especially in developing countries to ensure the materialization of the gains from trade (WTO 2004). These studies also highlight the important role of international civil aviation in contributing to the development process and its role in the leisure and commercial decisions of many people. This importance is expected to increase as a result of technological innovation deregulation and enhanced market access for foreign companies which are all making air transport more accessible to a wider set of customers in a broader range of countries.
Standards in the multilateral trading system
This Section focuses on standards-related WTO legal texts and relevant jurisprudence. The Section begins with a discussion of the texts themselves. This is followed by a detailed discussion of some of the key concepts relevant to standards in the TBT and the SPS Agreements as well as GATT 1994. The Agreements are then placed in the context of the economic discussion presented in the previous Sections and reference is also made to accumulated standards-related jurisprudence. Since the focus of the Report is on product standards only WTO legal texts and jurisprudence bearing on “goods” will be discussed. It is important to note though that the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) also contains standards-related provisions on services specifically in Article VI paras. 4 and 5.
Selected medium-term developments
International trade in fuels and pharmaceuticals has expanded at above-average rates in recent years affecting the structure of global merchandise trade flows. These developments are examined here.
Introduction
Product standards specify or pin down the characteristics of a product. These characteristics can include design size weight safety energy and environmental performance interoperability material and even the process of production. Examples of standards include the dimensions of freight containers and of screw threads; safety performance of seat belts air bags and medical devices; pasteurization of milk; and protocols that allow computers from different vendors to communicate with one another.
Executive summary
The World Trade Report 2005 begins with a brief review of salient trends in international trade focusing firstly on recent developments and then examining medium-term developments in the oil sector and the pharmaceutical sector. Section II of WTR 2005 contains the core topic of this year’s Report which is standards and trade in the context of the WTO. The Section looks first at the economics of standards and trade and then at a range of institutional and policy issues. This is followed by a discussion of standards in the multilateral trading system. Section III of the Report takes up three discrete and topical issues of relevance to international trade. The three thematic essays in this Section are on the use of quantitative economics in WTO dispute settlement trade in air transport services and offshoring services. The essay on the use of quantitative economic analysis in WTO dispute settlement procedures explains the kinds of quantitative techniques and econometric models that have been applied in various WTO legal disputes and discusses the use that was made of such analysis in a selected range of cases. The essay on trade in air transport services takes a close look at key characteristics of the industry and examines how it has evolved over time. The analysis also considers the economics of this sector and a number of issues relating to competition regulation governance and trade in air transport services. Finally the essay on offshoring services considers the economic characteristics of the activity its scope and implications and how it is relevant to the General Agreement on Trade in Services.
Institutions and policy issues
This Section explains how standardization and conformity assessment work in practice and describes the relevant characteristics of standardization and conformity assessment infrastructures in various regions of the world. It starts with a discussion of the standardization process and considers where standardization takes place how it is organized and who participates in the process. Subsection 2 discusses the organization of conformity assessment at the international regional and national levels and describes the ways in which conformity assessment requirements may impact on trade.
Conclusion
This Report has shown that it is important to distinguish standards according to their function. The conceptual framework adopted in the Report distinguished standards related to network externalities imperfect information and negative production or consumption externalities.
Offshoring services: Recent developments and prospects
Despite the recovery in the world economy in 2003 and 2004 unemployment remained high in many industrial countries. Even in those countries which reported a strong recovery such as the United States and the United Kingdom employment levels recovered only moderately leading many observers to wonder about a “jobless recovery”. Although employment growth typically lags behind in each cyclical output recovery sluggishness in services sector employment seemed to be a new development. In previous downturns the services sector continued to generate new jobs. The information communications technology (ICT) sector – one of the most dynamic sources of new employment in the 1990s – not only slowed down in terms of job growth but actually experienced a decline in the payroll after the ICT crash in 2000-01. Many dot.com companies and telecom firms closed down or had to downsize as investment outlays in IT hardware and software decreased in OECD countries.
Recent trends in international trade
The world economy grew at 4 per cent in 2004 the strongest annual growth rate in more than a decade. Global GDP last year was also more broadly based regionally than in the three preceding years providing a solid basis for an acceleration in world trade growth. World merchandise trade rose by 9 per cent in real terms in 2004 the best annual performance since 2000 and more than twice as fast as world output (GDP measured at market rates) in 2004. Trade growth in 2004 also significantly exceeded average trade growth recorded over the last decade.
World Trade Report 2005
The report focuses on specific trade policy issues of current interest and reviews trends in international trade. The core topic addressed in the 2005 Report is the relationship between standards and trade. The Report also contains 3 shorter essays on the use of quantitative economic analysis in WTO dispute settlement proceedings trade in air transport services and offshoring services.
Quantitative economics in WTO dispute settlement
WTO dispute settlement continues to be the subject of extensive scrutiny by both trade practitioners and academics. Not surprisingly most of this analysis is legal in nature touching upon the various arguments that have been put forward by parties to disputes and the legal foundations upon which these disputes are adjudicated. While legal and procedural issues remain the domain of trade lawyers economists are being called upon with increased frequency on matters that call for economic interpretation or quantification. This should hardly be surprising given that multilateral trade rules reflect key economic principles such as comparative advantage and that many of the terms in WTO Agreements which are important in the resolution of disputes have an economic basis. It may also have to do with the fact that increasing numbers of disputes are reaching the implementation phase in which arbitrators need to quantify the allowable level of retaliation as will be further explained below.
The economics of standards and trade
We live in a world profoundly reliant on product standards. Faxes can be sent around the world because fax machines obey a common protocol. Computer files can be shared because computers employ various standardized hardware and software formats. The need for product standards is not a new phenomenon. In biblical times the lack of a common (standardized) language wreaked havoc at the Tower of Babel (Shapiro 2000). In more recent times during the great Baltimore fire of 1904 fire fighters called in from neighbouring cities were unable to fight the blaze effectively because their hoses would not fit the hydrants in Baltimore.
Foreword
The World Trade Report 2005 follows the pattern established in previous years and takes up a number of key trade policy issues facing the international trading system for analysis and discussion. The underlying objective of the Report is to contribute to a deeper understanding of trade policy issues facing governments. The core topic in this year’s report is standards and international trade. Shorter essays have been prepared on three other topics – the use of quantitative economic analysis in WTO dispute settlement international trade in air transport services and offshoring services.
Environmental Quality Provision and Eco-Labelling
This paper is a literature survey of some relevant issues arising from environmental quality provision and eco-labelling schemes. First of all it is shown how the two topics are strictly related. Firms adopting a production process (or producing a good) more environmentally friendly than others (environmental quality provision aspect) may want to make it public (eco-labelling aspect). The survey addresses the question of optimal environmental quality provision (also as a policy tool) and firms compliance. With regard to eco-labelling its impacts on market structure are analysed. It hasn’t been possible to consider all issues like for example that of moral hazard in providing non truthful information. Different issues related to trade are also analysed even if the literature is not abundant on this yet. In the literature both aspects of environmental quality provision and eco-labelling are analysed using product differentiation models. The usual result is that multiple equilibria arise depending also on the parameters. Models are also not robust to different assumptions. Environmental quality provision and eco-labelling are also compared to more traditional policy instruments like taxes (or subsidies) and standards. From the empirical evidence it can be concluded that information plays a crucial role both for consumers’ and producers’ decisions. Consumers are willing to pay a higher price to be informed about the greenness of a good and a label can really be a determinant in their choice of which brand to purchase. On the supply side disclosing information about the environmental performance of a firm can affect investment decisions and its stock value.
Turning Hills into Mountains?
Over the past months it has become increasingly clear that the services negotiations under the Doha Development Agenda will not produce significant improvements on current commitments unless major new impetus is provided. In an introductory section this paper discusses various impediments from the perspective of participating governments that may explain the lack of negotiating momentum to date. It then provides an overview of existing commitments under the GATS (by sector mode of supply and level of development) and of the initial offers that had been tabled by early 2005. Despite the substantial benefits that may be associated with the liberalization of services trade the GATS has obviously not yet lived up to ambitious expectations. For example on average across all WTO Members only one-third of all services sectors have been included in current schedules of commitments; and many entries have been combined with significant limitations on market access and national treatment or with the complete exclusion of particular types of transactions (modes of supply) from coverage. While the ongoing services negotiations provide an opportunity to complement the rule-making efforts of the Uruguay Round with genuine market opening many governments apparently have found it difficult despite generally more restrictive access regimes and thus potentially higher gains from liberalization than in merchandise trade to undertake or envisage economically significant bindings across a broad range of services. Five years after the inception of the services round current negotiating arrangements based mainly on (bilateral) exchanges of requests and offers may need to be complemented by common points of reference to provide greater focus and guidance.
Developing Countries in the WTO Services Negotiations
The aim of this paper is to analyse developing countries’ participation so far in the current round of services negotiations under the Doha Development Agenda. The paper analyses developing countries’ negotiating positions as evidenced by their multilateral negotiating proposals; their initial offers; and to the extent allowed by the incomplete and sketchy information available their participation in bilateral market access negotiations. A number of basic themes are raised: the essential role of services for economic development; the high costs imposed by trade protection; the benefits of liberalization; the need to make use of the WTO forum to enhance credibility and sustain domestic regulatory reform programmes; the challenges of regulatory reform and the importance of appropriate sequencing; and the benefits arising from seeking further market access overseas in those areas where developing countries have a comparative advantage.
The Impact of Mode 4 on Trade in Goods and Services
This paper estimates the impact of liberalization of temporary movements of individual service suppliers on trade in goods and services. In particular the paper looks at the impact of the so-called forth mode to provide a service on trade in services under the other three modes: cross-border service supply (Mode 1) consumption abroad (Mode 2) and commercial presence abroad (Mode 3). Estimates are obtained using a gravity model of trade augmented for a measure of temporary movements of service suppliers. Estimates of the size of a country’s Mode 4 trade in services are based on specific information regarding the number of temporary foreign workers occupied in the service sector and their estimated average earnings thus overcoming the limitations of traditional measures of Mode 4 based on remittances or compensation for employees. We find a positive and significant effect of temporary movements of service providers on merchandise trade and services trade under Mode 1 and 3. No significant relationship is found between services trade under Mode 2 and Mode 4.
Coherence
The starting point for this study is that appropriately designed and sequenced trade liberalization measures and a well crafted set of trade rules can make a positive contribution to growth and development. But the extent of that contribution also depends on other policies. The notion of coherence has been deployed in this study to characterize a situation in which relevant policies are pulling together in the same direction. In a world of multiple policy objectives and priorities and one where no consensus exists on the ideal policy set the concept of coherence cannot be given operational precision – rather it is indicative of the reality that policies are inter-dependent and that poor policy or neglect in one area can undermine the efficacy of efforts in another. Coherence cannot be uniquely defined unless a set of policy objectives is formally established and the objectives ranked in terms of priorities that indicate how trade-offs are to be made when these are necessary. A precise specification of a fully coherent policy set would also identify the exact nature and timing of all relevant government interventions. Any such undertaking is well beyond the scope of this study. Instead coherence in this context simply refers to the idea that mutually supportive approaches in related areas of policy are likely to produce greater harmony between intent and outcome. Coherence as discussed here is a matter of degree and more coherence means that the benefits of sound trade policies are greater than they would be without supportive policies in other areas.
Trade and trade policy developments
The expansion of global output and trade gained considerable momentum in the second half of 2003 resulting in an annual average increase of world GDP and world merchandise exports of 2.5 per cent and 4.5 per cent respectively. These changes represent stronger than expected improvements when compared with the preceding year although trade growth remained below the average rate recorded in the 1990s. These annual results were negatively affected by a combination of unusual temporary factors and longer-term structural weaknesses in a number of major economies (in particular the state of the banking system in Japan and the labour markets in Western Europe). One of the influencing temporary factors was the emergence of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in East Asia. Although SARS remained a limited epidemic relative to malaria and the acquired immunity deficiency syndrome (AIDS) it had a dramatic short-term impact on the movement of people and on the tourism industry in the region. The build up of tensions resulting in the military conflict in Iraq weakened consumer and business confidence in many regions in the first quarter of the year. In OECD countries the composite leading (business) indicator hit its lowest level in March 2003 then displayed a trend increase from May 2003 onwards. The major stock markets showed a similar development dropping sharply until March but recovering thereafter and then expanding sharply until the end of the year.
Foreword
The World Trade Report 2004 is the second annual publication in the WTO Secretariat’s new series. As I indicated last year the World Trade Report seeks to deepen public understanding of current trade policy issues and to contribute to more informed consideration of the options facing governments. Like last year the Report begins with a review of recent world trade developments. This is followed by three shorter essays – on trade preferences the temporary movement of natural persons and geographical indications. The main topic of the Report this year is coherence.
Executive summary
The first Section of the World Trade Report 2004 discusses recent developments in the structure value and volume of international trade in goods and services and trade prospects for 2004. It also includes analyses of non-reciprocal preferences the international movement of persons supplying services and geographical indications. The second Section of WTR 2004 then examines the subject of policy coherence stressing the importance of complementary national policies to enable trade liberalization to create larger benefits for society. It focuses on four important areas of economic policymaking. They are: i) the macroeconomy; ii) the state of infrastructure and infrastructural services particularly in areas linked closely to trade performance (transport telecommunications financial services and business services); iii) market structure with special emphasis on the level of competition and presence of externalities; and iv) the quality of institutions. The last part of the second Section of the Report then explores the international dimensions of coherence identifying the role of international cooperation in supporting coherent policy formulation at the national level particularly in the field of trade policy.
Acknowledgements
The World Trade Report 2004 was prepared under the general direction of Deputy Director-General Dr. Kipkorir Aly Azad Rana. Patrick Low Director of the Economic Research and Statistics Division led the team responsible for writing the Report. The principal authors of the Report were Bijit Bora Zdenek Drabek K. Michael Finger Marion Jansen Alexander Keck Patrick Low Hildegunn Kyvik Nordås Roberta Piermartini and Robert Teh. Barbara D’Andrea of the Economic Research and Statistics Division co-authored Section IB.2. Jeffrey Gertler of the Legal Affairs Division contributed to the writing of Section IB.1. Mukela Luanga of the Economic Research and Statistics Division provided critical input to a number of the principal authors. Trade statistics and tariff information were provided by the Statistics Group of the Economic Research and Statistics Division coordinated by Guy Karsenty Julia de Verteuil Andreas Maurer and Jürgen Richtering.
World Trade Report 2004
The World Trade Report is an annual WTO publication focused on trade trends and policy issues. The 2004 edition reviews recent trade developments and examines issues including coherence in trade and macroeconomic policies geographical indications and the liberalization of trade in services through the temporary movement of natural persons.
The GATS Turns Ten: A Preliminary Stocktaking
The paper discusses the experience to date with the implementation and application of the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) some ten years after its entry into force. One striking observation is the smooth functioning of the Agreement which has created far less tensions and frictions including at Ministerial Meetings than its difficult negotiating history might have suggested. This is due in large part to a high degree of flexibility at several levels: Members have more scope than under the GATT to depart from common horizontal obligations in particular the MFN principle; they are able to adjust the breadth and depth of their trade commitments (market access and national treatment) to particular sector conditions; and they face less constraints if any in the use of trade-related policies such as subsidies export restrictions or domestic regulatory interventions. An additional source of flexibility is the uncertainty still surrounding a few core concepts of the Agreement and their sometimes daring application in individual schedules. While the ongoing negotiations also provide an opportunity for technical corrections of scheduling problems the basic (built-in) flexibility elements of the Agreement - including the bottom-up approach of undertaking sector commitments and the possibility of inscribing limitations under individual modes - will of course persist. (Their actual relevance may nevertheless differ significantly between 'old' Members and countries negotiating their accession to the WTO.) Given the broad reach of of the Agreement in terms of membership sector application and modal coverage flexibility may be considered a conditio sine qua non. There is little reason to believe that a more rigid structure would have been acceptable to Uruguay Round participants and even if so that it would have proven stable and resilient over time. However flexibility may come at a cost: lack of meaningful obligations across a reasonably broad range of service sectors. Vested interests may find it far easier than under the GATT to defend their privileges and defy more rational and harmonized trading conditions. While the paper discusses formula-based approaches that have been proposed to improve the quantity and/or quality of sector commitments within the existing framework of GATS there should be no illusion about the scope for technical solutions to what constitutes a political and institutional challenge.
Infrastructure and Trade
This paper explores the role that quality of infrastructure has on a country's trade performance estimating a gravity model that incorporates bilateral tariffs and a number of indicators for the quality of infrastructure. The paper looks at the impact of the quality of infrastructure (road airport port and telecommunication and the time required for customs clearance) on total bilateral trade and on trade in the automotive clothing and textile sectors. In order to obtain unbiased estimators multilateral resistances for tariffs and remoteness are introduced in the gravity equation. Moreover the robustness of the results is tested by estimating a fixed-effect model where bilateral indexes of the quality of infrastructure are included. The results can be summarised in four main findings: (i) bilateral tariffs generally neglected in gravity regression of bilateral flows have a significant negative impact on trade; (ii) quality of infrastructure is an important determinant of trade performance; (iii) port efficiency appears to have the largest impact on trade among all indicators of infrastructure; (iv) timeliness and access to telecommunication are relatively more important for export competitiveness in the clothing and automotive sector respectively.
Special and Differential Treatment in the WTO
Special and differential treatment (S&D) for developing countries continues to be a defining feature of the multilateral trading system. This paper seeks to address key aspects of what has become an increasingly entangled and multi-faceted discussion. The paper begins by reviewing the historical context in which the relationship of developing countries with the multilateral trading system evolved. The paper distinguishes several elements in the case typically made for S&D. It argues that concerns about graduation — the definition of which countries qualify for special treatment —have complicated progress on this issue suggesting that a focus on measures rather than on country status would obviate this difficulty while at the same time increasing the analytical underpinning of the case for special and differential treatment. The paper explores various forms of S&D and develops arguments for particular approaches to the design and management of access to S&D. An illustration is provided of how a more analytical approach would work by defining eligibility automatically in relation to measures rather than countries.
Institutions, Trade Policy and Trade Flows
This paper analyses to which extent domestic institutions affect trade flows. We use two complementary approaches one focusing on the size of total trade flows and one focusing on bilateral trade patterns (gravity equation). Besides we control for two other domestic policy variables: trade policy and domestic infrastructure. We find that the quality of institutions has a positive and significant impact on a country’s level of openness. Domestic tariffs have no statistically significant impact on their own but do affect total trade flows when combined with good institutions. Domestic institutions also have a positive and significant impact on bilateral trade flows but the parameter of our institution variables is reduced by almost a half and may turn insignificant when the quality of domestic infrastructure is included in the regression.
National Environmental Policies and Multilateral Trade Rules
This paper provides an overview of institutional economic and legal aspects of the relationship between national environmental policies and the multilateral trading system. In particular it analyses some of the difficulties the WTO Dispute Settlement System faces when having to evaluate disputes on national environmental policies that have an impact on trade. From an economist's point of view it would be desirable that optimal environmental policies i.e. policies that correct existing market failures be ruled consistent with multilateral trade law. This paper argues that WTO law in theory provides appropriate tools to ensure rulings that are consistent with economic thinking. Yet the paper also argues that economists have a rather imperfect knowledge of the precise welfare effects of different types of environmental policies. In practice therefore it is questionable whether economists are able to give adequate guidance to legal experts when it comes to the evaluation of national environmental policies. This is one of the reasons why there continues to be some degree of uncertainty as to the possible interpretations of certain WTO rules in the context of environmental disputes.
Vertical Specialization and the Quality of Infrastructure
This paper explores the role of producer services and ICT on international outsourcing. The motivation for outsourcing is to focus on core business and improve efficiency and outsourcing companies usually outsource a number of functions and the efficiency gains depend on the ability for the suppliers to deliver the required quality at the right time. The timeliness of delivery and the fulfilment of quality standards depend critically on the availability of producer services. I therefore argue that international outsourcing can best be understood within an analysis framework of many suppliers that are interdependent and the O-ring theory of production is such a theory. The paper first presents and modifies this model and then explores its predictions in an empirical analysis of the determinants of international vertical specialization as defined by an index developed by Hummels et al. (2001). The index is calculated for a cross-section of 52 countries and 5 sectors and regressed on a number of variables affecting the timeliness of delivery. It is found that vertical specialization is sensitive to trade barriers and infrastructure quality and cost of infrastructural services. The relative importance of trade barriers and various indicators of infrastructure vary between sectors. Vertical specialization in the electronics sector appears to be most sensitive to trade barriers and the density of the telecommunication network. This is also the case for the motor vehicles sector but the size of the parameters is somewhat lower. The chemicals sector is most sensitive to the restriction on maritime services while for textiles and clothing the aggregated measure of infrastructure had the highest explanatory power. Only in the electronics sector did the wage level (GDP per capita was used as a proxy) matter for vertical specialization.
Conclusion
This Report has ranged widely. The Executive Summary attached to the beginning of the Report outlines the main areas covered and observations made. A report of this nature is itself a summary of complex issues and has to rely heavily on the more detailed and analytical work of others. References have been made in the text to this work. Many of the issues addressed here are “moving targets” particularly where governments are constantly exercising policy options that exert an influence on outcomes and where WTO Members are actively engaged in a major trade negotiation.
Foreword
The World Trade Report is a new annual publication produced by the WTO Secretariat. Each year the WTR will explore trends in world trade and highlight important issues in the world trading system. In addition to monitoring and interpreting trade developments the Report seeks to deepen public understanding of pressing policy issues. The WTR does not pretend to provide comprehensive answers to complex and many-sided questions subject to continuing debate among governments and their constituencies. Rather by explaining the origin of issues and offering an analytical framework within which to address them the WTR aims to contribute to more informed discussion and a better appreciation of the options available to address policy challenges.
Acknowledgements
The World Trade Report has been written under the general direction of Patrick Low Director of the Economic Research and Statistics Division. The main authors of the Report are Bijit Bora K. Michael Finger Marion Jansen Alexander Keck Patrick Low Hildegunn Nordas Roberta Piermartini and Robert Teh. Trade statistics and tariff information were provided by the Statistics Group of the Economic Research and Statistics Division co-ordinated by Guy Karsenty Julia de Verteuil Andreas Maurer and Jürgen Richtering.
Recent trends
International trade rebounded in 2002 from its contraction in the preceding year growing at about 2.5 per cent in volume terms which was faster than the growth of global output. The rebound occurred despite the weakness of the global economic recovery greatly reduced capital flows major changes in exchange rates increased restrictions on international trade transactions to mitigate risks from terrorism and rising geopolitical tensions. Trade growth was strong in Asia and the transition economies largely reflecting better economic performance in those regions. However trade was stagnant in Western Europe and contracted in Latin America as a result of economic turmoil in a number of countries in the region. North America’s imports recovered in line with stronger domestic demand while exports continued to decrease in 2002.
Executive summary
At the Fourth World Trade Organization Ministerial Meeting held in Doha in November 2001 Ministers launched a comprehensive set of multilateral trade negotiations and a work programme. This mandate is sometimes referred to as the Doha Development Agenda reflecting a shared desire to ensure that the trading system is relevant and responsive to the needs of developing countries. Among the areas covered by the negotiations or the work programme are market access in manufactures agriculture and services certain rules (including anti-dumping subsidies and countervailing measures and regional arrangements) trade and environment trade-related intellectual property rights the relationship between trade and investment the interaction between trade and competition policy transparency in government procurement trade facilitation and dispute settlement. Developing countries were particularly instrumental in putting certain issues on the agenda including trade and technology transfer trade debt and finance small economies implementation issues (mostly pending from the Uruguay Round) and special and differential treatment. Views continue to differ on how and in some cases whether to include all the issues mentioned above in the negotiations which are due for completion at the end of 2004.
Selected issues in trade and trade policy
South-South trade has long been promoted as a means to reduce the dependence of developing countries on markets of developed countries and to enhance diversification of Southern exports beyond primary commodities. Most of the mechanisms that were created to foster co-operation among developing countries were largely subregional and regional arrangements many of them preferential in nature. During the 1950s and 1960s the promotion of South-South trade was in many instances part of a set of policy measures anchored in a strategy of import substitution behind high trade barriers. South-South trade grew in spurts as developing country economies went through stop and go cycles. Despite efforts to promote and diversify South-South trade primary products continued to dominate these flows in most regions and by 1990 South-South trade accounted for only 6.5 per cent of world trade.
The Doha Development Agenda
An underlying objective of the WTO is to promote economic development through effective participation in world trade. Three aspects of the WTO’s structure and rules are relevant to the question of how developing countries can derive greater benefits from participation in the trading system. First the rules themselves together with permitted exceptions and interpretations are the foundation of the system and play a key part in determining the conditions and opportunities of trade. Second there is the question of the coverage of the system. No examples exist of topics that the WTO has taken up and then discarded so this is about the inclusion of new areas. Third the pattern of protection facing a country’s exports also goes a long way in defining trading conditions and opportunities. In short the nature of WTO rules the reach of these rules and conditions of market access are the three major areas that determine the quality and utility of the WTO for its Members. Not surprisingly each of these three elements features prominently in the Doha Development Agenda.