Trade monitoring

Desde el último Informe Anual de la OMC, las condiciones para la formulación de políticas comerciales y relacionadas con el comercio se han hecho mucho más difíciles. Los efectos de la crisis financiera y económica que afectan a mercados emergentes y del cambio desfavorable de la coyuntura económica del Japón distan mucho de estar plenamente superados. Están teniendo una grave repercusión en las pautas del crecimiento económico mundial y, por ende, en el comercio y en los mercados de productos básicos (capítulo segundo). Aunque se ha producido cierto retroceso en la liberalización del comercio, en septiembre de 1998 el sistema multilateral de comercio – como revela la evolución de las políticas comerciales – parecía resistir bien a la turbulencia de los mercados financieros y comerciales.

The Trade Policy Review Mechanism (TPRM) was first established on a trial basis by the GATT CONTRACTING PARTIES in April 1989. The Mechanism became a permanent feature of the World Trade Organization under the Marrakesh Agreement which established the WTO in January 1995.

International trade rebounded in 2002 from its contraction in the preceding year, growing at about 2.5 per cent in volume terms, which was faster than the growth of global output. The rebound occurred despite the weakness of the global economic recovery, greatly reduced capital flows, major changes in exchange rates, increased restrictions on international trade transactions to mitigate risks from terrorism, and rising geopolitical tensions. Trade growth was strong in Asia and the transition economies, largely reflecting better economic performance in those regions. However trade was stagnant in Western Europe, and contracted in Latin America as a result of economic turmoil in a number of countries in the region. North America’s imports recovered in line with stronger domestic demand, while exports continued to decrease in 2002.

This joint Trade Policy Review of Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau and Togo has allowed us to situate the three countries’ trade and trade-related policies and practices in their socio-economic context. We are grateful for the active participation of the delegations headed respectively by H.E. Dagobert Banzio, Minister of Trade of Côte d’Ivoire, and H.E. Kwesi Séléagodji Ahoomey-Zunu, Minister of Trade of Togo. I would also like to thank the discussant, H.E. Mr. Luzius Wasescha, Permanent Representative of Switzerland, and Members of the TPRB for contributing to our fruitful exchange of views, as well as the WAEMU Commission for its assistance to its members under review.

L’analyse des facteurs qui façonnent le commerce international et de leurs implications pour la politique commerciale ne peut pas être complète et utile si l’on n’a pas une idée claire de l’évolution de la structure des échanges dans le temps. Cette partie du rapport étudie les tendances passées, présentes et futures du commerce international et de l’activité économique. Elle commence par un historique du commerce, de l’époque préindustrielle à nos jours, en soulignant le rôle central que la technologie et les institutions ont joué dans le passé. Puis elle décrit et explique les grandes tendances du commerce international apparues au cours des 30 dernières années en présentant les principaux acteurs du commerce (pays et entreprises) et en indiquant quels pays font du commerce avec qui et comment la nature des échanges a évolué au fil du temps. Enfin, elle présente quelques simulations illustrant les scénarios futurs possibles pour le commerce.

La présente publication a été établie sous la direction de Hubert Escaith, Chef statisticien et Andreas Maurer, Chef de la Section des statistiques du commerce international. La coordination et la production des tableaux, des graphiques et des cartes du rapport a été supervisée par Ninez Piezas Jerbi, avec l'assistance de Coleman Nee et Anna-Sophia Fuss. Les recherches statistiques, la compilation des données et l'établissement des estimations ont été effectués par Barbara d'Andrea-Adrian, Alejandra Barajas Barbosa, Sanja Blazevic, Lori Chang, Christophe Degain, Florian Eberth, Aude Lanois, Antonella Liberatore, Coleman Nee, Ninez Piezas-Jerbi et Ying Yan.

This section attempts to provide some guidance as to how services trade patterns will change. Using a novel approach, this section begins by showing recent trends in trade costs related to services and identifying the factors affecting these costs. Then, major future trends in technology, demography, income and climate change are examined with a view to explaining how these trends can affect the choice of which services countries trade and with whom they trade, as well as how they trade. Finally, the potential impact of these trends on trade in services is quantified using the WTO Global Trade Model.

In 2012, the annual Parliamentary Conference on the WTO, organized by the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU) and the European Parliament, was held at the WTO. The WTO Secretariat continued the distribution of its regular newsletter to a growing number of parliamentarians. It also organized two regional workshops for parliamentarians in cooperation with regional and international partners.

Guyana welcomes this second Trade Policy Review (TPR) by the Trade Policy Review Body. The Government of Guyana very much appreciated the fruitful consultations with WTO Secretariat staff during the preparations of the TPR.

Mozambique has produced positive economic results over the last decade. The economic environment has been transformed. Mozambique has a low diversified economy. It is dependent from agriculture. Mozambique recorded an average annual per capita income of US$362 in 2006 and this is estimated to have been US$466 in 2008. A combination of several factors: political stability, economic reforms, foreign investment flows, the gradual integration into regional markets and continued international donor support have created the conditions for high economic growth rates recorded in recent years.

Trade has made enormous contributions to growth, development and prosperity. As part of a virtuous circle of policy and circumstance, it has helped to lift millions out of poverty and spread the benefits of higher living standards. Trade has brought nations closer together, fostering mutual understanding and contributing to world peace. But this is not the whole story. Concerns over fairness, income distribution, social justice and jobs have intensified in recent times, particularly since the 2007-2009 Great Recession. Growing problems in these areas risk eroding public support for more open trade. The legitimacy of the market-based system will be increasingly questioned if the benefits of progress are not more equitably shared. We should, however, be clear about where trade and trade policy fit into the picture. Trade is only part of a much bigger context. It obviously cannot deliver on its own the full range of benefits to be derived from sound economic and social policies. The challenge is to construct coherent national and international policy frameworks that deliver inclusive growth.