Development and building trade capacity
Implementing Trade Facilitation Reform in Africa
Trade facilitation is central to Africa’s competitiveness in the global economy. Costs related to trade facilitation make up a significant proportion of overall trade-related costs, which in Africa are higher than in any other developing region. This acts as a barrier for the integration of African countries into global markets, as well as greater intra-African integration. Improving trade facilitation is essential for lowering costs for African agricultural producers as well as supporting the development of higher value-added activities in agribusiness, manufacturing, and services, including participation in regional and global value chains. Diagnostic tools used by the World Bank Group, such as the Logistics Performance Index, as well as country-specific diagnostics, highlight the key challenges faced. The evidence also shows that performance varies, with some countries making significant progress on reform programs to improve trade facilitation. With other developing regions having generally more advanced trade facilitation regimes, the lessons from these regions can be instructive in designing and implementing reforms in Africa, which the World Bank Group is actively supporting at the national and regional levels. A priority for the Bank Group is implementing trade facilitation programs that do more to reduce trade-related costs facing the extreme poor, given the concentration of extreme poverty in Africa.
Conclusiones
En el presente informe se han examinado las fuerzas que determinarán el futuro del comercio mundial. Estas fuerzas son complejas y numerosas. Interactúan con la propia actividad comercial y entre sí mismas y reciben, además, la influencia de las políticas públicas. Una cosa parece clara: el panorama y la naturaleza del comercio mundial están cambiando rápidamente. La evolución del comercio dará lugar a nuevos retos en materia de políticas. Si se gestiona adecuadamente, el comercio internacional aumentará la prosperidad en todo el mundo. Por lo tanto, ¿cuáles son las principales cuestiones que deben tener en cuenta los encargados de formular políticas?
Réflexions convergentes sur le commerce numérique pour préparer l’avenir
De plus en plus de personnes s’accordent à penser que le facteur ayant eu la plus forte incidence sur le commerce ces dernières années est l’introduction de technologies nouvelles et innovantes. L’évolution des technologies de l’information, de par sa vitesse et son intensité, a une incidence sur le commerce et plus généralement sur notre vie quotidienne comme jamais auparavant. Elle a rendu possible des interactions entre les humains, entre les humains et les machines, et entre les machines d’une manière qui aurait été inconcevable il y a encore quelques années. L’ère du numérique est une nouvelle réalité et c’est elle qui porte la croissance et le développement économiques. Elle pose des difficultés et ouvre des possibilités à tous les niveaux. Elle donne la possibilité aux pays en développement de mieux s’insérer dans les échanges internationaux, par le biais des chaînes de valeur mondiales (CVM) par exemple, mais il n’existe pas de mode d’emploi.
Prólogo del Director General de la OMC
En el Informe sobre el Comercio Mundial de este año se examina cómo el comercio y otros factores de cambio inciden en nuestro mundo. Se combina el análisis de la realidad contemporánea con hipótesis sobre el futuro. El enfoque es ecléctico, lo que refleja las numerosas fuerzas en presencia. La interacción entre estos motores de cambio es multidireccional y compleja, y el cambio es rápido.
Technological progress, diffusion, and opportunities for developing countries: lessons from China
The nature of technology used in products plays a major role in determining the governance structure of value chains and the benefits of participation for developing countries. Standardization through breaking production into modules with a high degree of functional autonomy (limited mutual interference between modules) can dramatically reduce the amount of research and development (R&D), learning by doing, and the number of complementary skills needed to produce a good. This greatly increases opportunities for developing country firms to participate in formerly capital-intensive industries through reducing entry costs into global value chains. However, widespread access to standardized products with little ability to modify technical features can lead to an excessive supply of homogeneous products in a local market, resulting in intense price competition and limited technology transfer. By contrast, technology that facilitates scope for product modification and greater interaction with technology owners can help boost technology transfer and product upgrading by developing country firms. The chapter illustrates this interaction between changes in technology and opportunities for developing countries through developments in the automotive and mobile phone handset industries, with a particular reference to China’s growth experience. It also finds that automation is likely to have only a limited impact on developing countries’ opportunities to participate in value chains through the offshoring of production by high-income countries, at least in the short term.
Trade, Investment and Development
Structural transformation is imperative for Africa’s economies. An unprecedented policy unanimity has emerged amongst African government and business leaders that to achieve sustained growth and development, Africa must industrialize and secure a greater share of the benefits of its participation in global value chains. This requires further advances in a programme for ‘development integration’ that simultaneously combines market integration with purposeful industrial development intervention and cooperation to strengthen regional value chains, underpinned by efforts to develop and rehabilitate cross-border infrastructure for greater connectivity across Africa.
Acknowledgements
The World Trade Report has been written under the general direction of Patrick Low, Director of the Economic Research and Statistics Division. The main authors of the Report are Bijit Bora, K. Michael Finger, Marion Jansen, Alexander Keck, Patrick Low, Hildegunn Nordas, Roberta Piermartini and Robert Teh. Trade statistics and tariff information were provided by the Statistics Group of the Economic Research and Statistics Division, co-ordinated by Guy Karsenty, Julia de Verteuil, Andreas Maurer and Jürgen Richtering.
Convergencia de ideas sobre el comercio digital en la preparación para el futuro
Hay una convergencia creciente respecto a la idea de que el factor que ha influido en mayor medida en el comercio en los últimos años es la introducción de tecnologías nuevas e innovadoras. La velocidad y la intensidad de la evolución de las tecnologías de la información están incidiendo en el comercio y, en general, en nuestra vida cotidiana como nunca antes. Esa evolución ha hecho posible la interacción entre seres humanos, entre seres humanos y máquinas y entre máquinas de una forma que no podía imaginarse hace unos pocos años. La era digital es una nueva realidad y está impulsando el crecimiento económico y el desarrollo. Plantea desafíos y oportunidades a todos los niveles. Y ofrece la oportunidad de que los países en desarrollo participen mejor en el comercio internacional, por ejemplo, a través de las cadenas de valor mundiales, pero no hay ninguna receta para ello.
Foreword by the WTO Director-General
This year’s World Trade Report looks at how trade and other forces of change are affecting our world. It combines contemporary analysis with conjecture about the future. The approach is eclectic, reflecting many different forces at work. The intermingling of these drivers of change is multidirectional and complex, and the pace of change is rapid.
Trade in services
Technical assistance and capacity building in services trade have been consistently high over the last decade. Since 2015, more than 30 national and regional activities have been carried out at the request of African members and governments in the process of acceding to the WTO.
Recent trends
International trade rebounded in 2002 from its contraction in the preceding year, growing at about 2.5 per cent in volume terms, which was faster than the growth of global output. The rebound occurred despite the weakness of the global economic recovery, greatly reduced capital flows, major changes in exchange rates, increased restrictions on international trade transactions to mitigate risks from terrorism, and rising geopolitical tensions. Trade growth was strong in Asia and the transition economies, largely reflecting better economic performance in those regions. However trade was stagnant in Western Europe, and contracted in Latin America as a result of economic turmoil in a number of countries in the region. North America’s imports recovered in line with stronger domestic demand, while exports continued to decrease in 2002.
Tendances du commerce international
L’analyse des facteurs qui façonnent le commerce international et de leurs implications pour la politique commerciale ne peut pas être complète et utile si l’on n’a pas une idée claire de l’évolution de la structure des échanges dans le temps. Cette partie du rapport étudie les tendances passées, présentes et futures du commerce international et de l’activité économique. Elle commence par un historique du commerce, de l’époque préindustrielle à nos jours, en soulignant le rôle central que la technologie et les institutions ont joué dans le passé. Puis elle décrit et explique les grandes tendances du commerce international apparues au cours des 30 dernières années en présentant les principaux acteurs du commerce (pays et entreprises) et en indiquant quels pays font du commerce avec qui et comment la nature des échanges a évolué au fil du temps. Enfin, elle présente quelques simulations illustrant les scénarios futurs possibles pour le commerce.
Sincronización y globalización crecientes de las perturbaciones macroeconómicas
En la presente sección se describe la sincronización y propagación crecientes de las perturbaciones macroeconómicas en los últimos años, tras un período de aparente moderación general de la volatilidad. Se examina el papel de las cadenas de valor mundiales en la transmisión de las perturbaciones macroeconómicas y se analiza cómo influye la estructura de las exportaciones en la volatilidad. En la sección se describe el modo en que se propagó la crisis económica de los países desarrollados a los países en desarrollo y la respuesta coordinada con la que se pudo limitar el uso de medidas proteccionistas después de la crisis. A pesar de hallarse inmerso en la mayor desaceleración económica desde el decenio de 1930, el mundo no recurrió al proteccionismo de forma generalizada. Uno de los factores que explican este hecho es la existencia de un conjunto de normas comerciales internacionales.
Trade Openness and Vulnerability to Poverty in Viet Nam under Doi Moi
Following the so-called “Asian option” of transition, from the early 1990s Viet Nam adopted the Doi Moi (renovation) process, a combination of liberalization, stabilization and structural reforms. This included two main waves of trade liberalization, one in the 1990s and a second in the 2000s (Coello at al., 2010). The first wave lasted from the initial opening of the country until approximately 2001 and foresaw the total abolition of trade licences and the removal of most quantitative restrictions (Thanh and Duong, 2009). The second wave—still ongoing—includes the full involvement of the country in the global network of reciprocal trade agreements (both multilateral, WTO accession in January 2007, and bilateral, such as agreements signed with the United States in 2001 as well as FTA negotiations with the EU concluded in 2016).
Foreword by the WTO Director-General
Since the start of the millennium we have seen strong evidence of how trade, as a critical component of economic growth and development, can make a positive difference in people’s lives. Rapid economic growth in many developing economies over this period has been combined with deeper integration into the global trading system. This experience has highlighted the role that trade can play in boosting per capita incomes, helping developing countries to achieve wider societal goals, and in improving access to advanced technologies and knowledge, thereby setting the stage for future growth.
The digital economy, GVCs and SMEs
Although small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) represent the vast majority of firms worldwide, their participation in international trade remains limited relative to their share of overall economic activity and employment as compared to large firms. The rise of the digital economy could, however, open a range of new opportunities for small firms to play a more active role in global value chains (GVCs). This chapter reviews evidence of SME participation in international trade and production networks and looks at how the digitalization of our economies is already affecting, or could affect future, SME contributions to GVCs. New research by Lanz et al. (2018) finds evidence that digitally-connected SMEs in developing countries tend to import a higher share of their inputs than non-digitally-connected firms. Additionally, it is shown that this positive digital effect is greater for SMEs than it is for large firms. The chapter reviews the various opportunities that the digital economy opens for SMEs, especially in terms of cost reductions and the emergence of new business models, but also discusses policy measures that could be taken to promote SME participation in GVCs. Indeed, significant challenges remain for SMEs to enter GVCs, some of which are exacerbated by the new digital economy. A holistic approach that combines investment in ICT infrastructure and human capital with trade policy measures and measures to improve the business environment, access to finance and logistics, and promote innovation and R&D is necessary. Improving the availability of data would also help to better understand and integrate SMEs in GVCs.
Le développement du commerce électronique en Chine et la pertinence des politiques
La valeur en dollars des transactions électroniques effectuées en Chine a considérablement augmenté au cours des 20 dernières années, notamment grâce à l’amélioration des infrastructures, à la croissance rapide de la téléphonie mobile et à l’accroissement des financements. Le marché se caractérise également par une diversité croissante, notamment à la lumière de l’accroissement des services médicaux électroniques, de l’expansion du commerce électronique transfrontières et du développement des transactions en ligne à hors ligne. Le gouvernement national de la Chine a joué un rôle important dans le développement du commerce électronique grâce à l’élaboration de politiques dans le cadre de plans quinquennaux, tandis que les gouvernements régionaux ont quant à eux participé à la planification et à l’ajustement du cadre de la politique relative au commerce électronique en fonction de la situation locale.
Technical assistance activities of the WTO
The WTO supports African countries’ capacity-building needs through its technical assistance (TA) programme. In 2019, the WTO continued to enhance human and institutional capacity development on multilateral trade issues in Africa through the biennial Training and Technical Assistance Plan (TA Plan). The TA Plan is the framework that identifies priorities and mechanisms for implementation of TA activities, sources of funding and anticipated results. African countries are accorded priority in the implementation of many of the traderelated technical assistance activities.
La participación en la economía digital: cuestiones y programa para la adopción de la hoja de ruta para el comercio electrónico en Indonesia
En el presente estudio se analizan las cuestiones estructurales y prácticas planteadas por la adopción de la hoja de ruta para el comercio electrónico de Indonesia (2017-2019) y sus implicaciones para el futuro de la economía digital de este país. Se examinan dos categorías principales de cuestiones, a fin de determinar los problemas y retos con que se enfrentan en cada caso las partes interesadas. La primera categoría, a saber, la de las cuestiones estructurales, se enmarca en el contexto más amplio de la gestión de la economía digital nacional con la que están relacionadas las actividades de comercio electrónico. El contexto de la gobernanza abarca el marco jurídico y reglamentario, el mecanismo de institucionalización y las fases de aplicación, que comportan interacciones socioeconómicas y político-económicas entre los principales agentes. La segunda categoría abarca las dimensiones prácticas, a saber, cuestiones relacionadas con la mitigación y la adaptación a conceptos, modelos y prácticas de la economía digital. Se presentan la posición de Indonesia con respecto a la moratoria relativa al comercio electrónico y las iniciativas locales en materia de economía digital para ilustrar los esfuerzos de mitigación de las partes interesadas en ámbitos en que ha habido discrepancias y negociaciones sobre determinadas cuestiones de política estructurales y prácticas, es decir, la posición de Indonesia sobre la moratoria de la Organización Mundial del Comercio (OMC) relativa al comercio electrónico e iniciativas locales (como las adoptadas en Yogyakarta) para el desarrollo de una economía digital.
The environmental dimension of trade in the SDGs
Achieving better economic growth and better environmental outcomes is an indispensable condition for achieving the SDGs. If economic growth continues along its current environmentally unsustainable trajectory, the world risks compromising the prospects for future growth and human well-being, and even undoing much of the progress made on both fronts during the past 50 years, according to an OECD study. Forests, wetlands and other forms of “natural capital”, which make up almost 40% of the total wealth in developing and least-developed countries, are under increased pressure due to air, water and soil pollution along with rising greenhouse gas emissions, says a recent World Bank report.
Trade openness and the broader socio-economic context
Section C showed how fundamental economic factors – demography, investment, technology, natural resources, transportation and institutions – can affect the future of trade. But trade takes place within a broader socio-economic context. This context matters for trade and trade policy. Historically, social and macroeconomic concerns have repeatedly influenced decisions in trade policy matters. Section B of this report provided examples of such situations. Both themes are currently high on the political agenda and will undoubtedly affect policy-makers’ views and positions in the area of trade reform in the future. A third factor relates to environmental concerns, an issue that has rapidly been gaining prominence in the national, regional and global policy debate. It has also been repeatedly linked to trade, notably in the context of a number of high-profile WTO disputes, in the context of regional trade agreements and as an element of the on-going Doha Development Agenda.
La era del comercio digital - Oportunidades y desafíos para los países en desarrollo: el caso de Kenya
El comercio electrónico ha experimentado un rápido crecimiento en Kenya, apoyado por las leyes que regulan los servicios de tecnología de la información y las comunicaciones (TIC), las transacciones de comercio electrónico, la protección de datos y el acceso a la información. El Gobierno ha creado ventanillas únicas para la prestación de servicios públicos a los ciudadanos y para la logística comercial. El país está bien posicionado para ampliar su comercio digital con la creación de la Zona de Libre Comercio Continental Africana AfCFTA), habida cuenta de las políticas esbozadas en el Plan para la Economía Digital del Gobierno. El crecimiento del comercio digital ofrecerá nuevas oportunidades para la prestación de servicios en línea, promoverá la diversificación de las exportaciones, impulsará la eficiencia y el crecimiento en el sector manufacturero, mejorará la competencia en el sector financiero, aumentará el acceso a información relacionada con los mercados e incrementará el acceso de las microempresas y las pequeñas y medianas empresas (mipymes) a los mercados. Sin embargo, el potencial del comercio digital está limitado por la falta de acceso a servicios financieros, los bajos ingresos, una escasa cobertura de la banda ancha y de la fibra, una mala infraestructura de transporte y déficits de competencias. El marco jurídico y reglamentario de Kenya es insuficiente para ofrecer protección contra la ciberdelincuencia, garantizar la privacidad, apoyar la interoperabilidad de las plataformas móviles para la transferencia de dinero y los bancos, promover la confianza de los consumidores en las transacciones en línea, proteger la propiedad intelectual y proteger los sitios digitales de las responsabilidades derivadas de lo que publican los consumidores.
Le commerce international basé sur la chaîne de blocs : un moyen de promouvoir l’autonomisation économique des femmes ?
La technologie de la chaîne de blocs est extrêmement prometteuse pour ce qui est de promouvoir la participation des femmes au commerce international. L’anonymat offert par la chaîne de blocs et son efficacité pourraient permettre à de nombreuses femmes, qui seraient sinon freinées par la législation, les formalités douanières ou l’importance des coûts, de réaliser des transactions financières et commerciales. La chaîne de blocs peut être utilisée pour permettre à des femmes dépourvues de documents d’identification de procéder à des transactions qui, autrement, nécessiteraient une identification officielle et de prouver qu’elles sont propriétaires d’actifs sans l’intervention d’un homme de leur famille. La chaîne de blocs peut aider les micro, petites et moyennes entreprises (MPME), dont plus de 30% sont détenues par des femmes, à faire face aux coûts associés à l’exportation et l’importation ainsi qu’à interagir aisément avec les consommateurs, les autres entreprises de la chaîne d’approvisionnement, les agents des douanes et les organismes réglementaires. Par ailleurs, elle peut permettre aux agricultrices d’obtenir plus facilement des renseignements sur les cultures et l’état du marché et d’améliorer ainsi leur position de négociation. Cependant, en l’absence d’une réglementation appropriée, l’utilisation accrue de la chaîne de blocs pourrait aussi augmenter le rendement relatif des compétences technologiques sophistiquées que les hommes ont plus de chances de posséder et creuser le fossé numérique entre les hommes et les femmes. L’Organisation mondiale du commerce (OMC) pourrait jouer un rôle essentiel en élaborant des lignes directrices sur l’utilisation de la chaîne de blocs dans le commerce international, afin de soutenir l’adoption efficace et inclusive de la technologie de la chaîne de blocs.
L’OMC et les pays en développement
Cette section examine plusieurs caractéristiques de l’OMC qui aident à soutenir le développement et explique leur logique économique. Elle se divise en quatre sous-sections. La première sous-section montre comment l’OMC a aidé les pays en développement à gérer les défis liés aux quatre tendances décrites dans les sections précédentes et à en tirer parti. La deuxième examine, du point de vue économique, l’importance des engagements et des flexibilités prévus dans les accords commerciaux pour le développement. La littérature économique démontre que les règles et les disciplines de l’OMC favorisent la croissance en instaurant l’environnement prévisible dont les entreprises ont besoin pour prospérer. Dans le même temps, elle justifie l’existence des flexibilités, y compris le traitement spécial et différencié, par les dysfonctionnements du marché et par le fait que les Membres de l’OMC n’ont pas tous la même capacité de mise en oeuvre des obligations. La troisième sous-section décrit les règles et disciplines spécifiques qui s’appliquent expressément aux pays en développement. La quatrième et dernière sous-section décrit les mécanismes institutionnels qui intéressent tout particulièrement les pays en développement Membres.
Foreword
In 2015, the World Bank and the World Trade Organization published a flagship report on the role of trade in the effort to end poverty by 2030. Over the past three years, the two organizations have collaborated in various ways to advance that goal, from supporting implementation of the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement; to assisting the poor, including women and small-scale traders, to take advantage of trade opportunities; to supporting trade reforms in the world’s poorest countries.
The digital trade era – opportunities and challenges for developing countries: the case of Kenya
E-commerce has grown rapidly in Kenya, supported by laws governing information and communications technology (ICT) services, e-commerce transactions, data protection and access to information. The government has established one-stop shops for the provision of government services to citizens and for trade logistics. The country is well positioned to expand its digital trade with the establishment of the Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), given the policies outlined in the government’s Digital Economy Blueprint. The growth of digital trade will open up new opportunities for the provision of online services, promote export diversification, boost efficiency and growth in manufacturing, improve competition in the financial sector, increase access to market-relevant information and increase market access for micro, small and mediumsized enterprises (MSMEs). However, the potential of digital trade is constrained by lack of access to financial services, low income, limited broadband and fibre coverage, inadequate transport infrastructure and skills gaps. Kenya’s legal and regulatory framework is insufficient to protect against cybercrime, ensure privacy, support the interoperability of mobile money platforms and banks, promote consumers’ trust in online transactions, protect intellectual property and protect digital sites from liability for customers’ posts.
Executive summary
Over the past decade, world trade has expanded signifi cantly. By 2007, global trade had reached more than 60 per cent of world GDP, compared with less than 30 per cent in the mid-1980s. Few would contest that increased trade has contributed to global growth and job creation. However, strong growth in the global economy has not, so far, led to a corresponding improvement in working conditions and living standards for many. Absolute poverty has declined, thanks to the economic dynamism of recent years, the efforts of private companies, migrant workers and their remittances and the international development community. Nevertheless, in many instances, labour market conditions and the quality of employment growth have not improved to the same degree. In many developing economies job creation has mainly taken place in the informal economy, where around 60 per cent of workers fi nd income opportunities. However, the informal economy is characterized by less job security, lower incomes, an absence of access to a range of social benefi ts and fewer possibilities to participate in formal education and training programmes – in short, the absence of key ingredients of decent work opportunities.
Data regulation in trade agreements: different models and options ahead
“Data is the new oil”. Just like oil, which powered the economy in the last century, data are what moves the world today. This is especially true for international trade. The crucial role played by data can be observed at every step of the process, from the conception of a new product and the sourcing of raw materials and parts, to the manufacturing process and the transportation of products across borders, until they finally reach the hands of consumers from every corner of the world.
Acknowledgments
The Global Value Chains Development Report is a joint publication of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the Institute of Developing Economies (IDE–JETRO), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the Research Center of Global Value Chains (RCGVC-UIBE), the World Bank Group, and the China Development Research Foundation, based on joint research efforts to better understand the ongoing development and evolution of global value chains and their implications for economic development.
Driving Economic Growth through Trade Policy Reforms and Investment Attraction in the Open World Economy: The Experience of China
China achieved a great leap forward in its economic development in the last thirty years, supported by profound trade policy reforms, significant infrastructure investment and utilization of foreign capital, under the overarching state policy of reform and opening-up. Shares of manufactures and services in production have kept increasing, and remarkable export performance has been scored during this period. Additions of labour and capital, as well as competitive costs have largely shaped the economy’s comparative advantages up to now, and they are likely to be replaced by increasing domestic consumption, productivity growth and a greater reliance on services as the main factors sustaining future economic growth, albeit at a slower pace. Nonetheless, opening-up and domestic policy reforms, going hand-in-hand, will continue to play a critical role. The question that this paper addresses from China’s perspective may serve as a reference for the African economies seeking to establish a strong manufacturing base, and to realise economic take-off with the help of a clear opening-up strategy and a proper trade policy toolkit.
Rôle nouveau des produits de base dans les stratégies de développement
Cette section examine les défis et les possibilités inhérents aux stratégies de croissance et de développement fondées sur les produits de base, dans le contexte de prix relativement élevés mais volatiles. Elle présente d’abord un aperçu de l’évolution historique des prix des produits agricoles et des ressources naturelles. Puis elle analyse la façon dont les pays en développement sont arrivés à exploiter leur potentiel d’exportation de produits agricoles et de ressources naturelles dans ce contexte de prix élevés, pour asseoir leur développement. Elle met en évidence les politiques qui ont été utiles, mais aussi les défis qui restent à surmonter pour réaliser pleinement ce potentiel d’exportation. Enfin, elle examine les problèmes posés par une volatilité accrue, notamment pour les pays importateurs de produits alimentaires et pour les pays exportateurs de ressources naturelles, vulnérables aux cycles d’expansion et de récession.
Conclusions
Le tout premier Rapport sur le commerce mondial, publié en 2003, portait sur le commerce et le développement. Examinant le lien économique entre ces deux domaines, les auteurs cherchaient à savoir comment le Cycle de Doha – lancé à peine deux ans plus tôt – pouvait stimuler le développement.
Conclusions
This report has examined the forces that will shape the future of world trade. These forces are complex and numerous. They interact with trade itself and with each other, as well as being influenced by government policy. One thing seems clear: the landscape and nature of world trade are changing fast. As trade evolves, new policy challenges will arise. If properly managed, international trade will further increase prosperity around the globe. What are the main issues, therefore, that policy-makers need to take into account?
Glass Barriers: Constraints to Women’s Small-Scale,Cross-Border Trade in Cambodia and Lao PDR
Border checkpoints in developing countries often teem with traders transporting small quantities on foot or pushing carts alongside trucks that sport the insignia of formal companies. Those small-scale, cross-border traders may eventually be superseded by larger import-export firms. But during the process of development, their trade may be a valuable avenue for poverty alleviation and women’s empowerment. This chapter focuses on the latter in the context of small-scale, cross-border trade in Cambodia and Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). It analyzes recent survey research undertaken by the World Bank and draws conclusions about the key policy implications for facilitating the poverty-reducing impact of women’s participation in small-scale, cross-border trade.
Importance croissante des pays en développement dans l’économie mondiale
Ces dernières années ont été marquées par le rôle de plus en plus important des économies en développement dans l’économie mondiale. Cette section examine comment, en dix ans, de nombreux pays sont parvenus à une croissance économique remarquable, tout en faisant reculer à grands pas la pauvreté. Certains de ces pays sont devenus d’importants producteurs et exportateurs de produits manufacturés, de produits agricoles et de services commerciaux, éclipsant parfois les pays industriels. Il s’agit, en particulier, des grandes économies en développement qui se sont imposées dans des enceintes internationales comme le G-20.
Perspectivas de cooperación comercial multilateral
En la presente sección se examina la pertinencia de las actuales normas comerciales, así como la necesidad de nuevos enfoques de la cooperación a nivel comercial, a la luz de las fuerzas que están reconfigurando actualmente el comercio internacional. Se señala que será necesario que el sistema multilateral de comercio, como lo ha hecho reiteradamente en el pasado, se adapte a los acontecimientos que están teniendo lugar en el comercio y en el entorno comercial, y se examinan propuestas encaminadas a actualizar el programa y la gobernanza de la OMC. La sección comienza con una breve reseña de los principales acontecimientos comerciales en el contexto socioeconómico más amplio, en particular, la aparición de las cadenas mundiales de suministro, el desplazamiento general del poder comercial de Occidente hacia Asia y otras economías emergentes, así como la evolución de la naturaleza, la composición y la dirección del comercio. A continuación se destacan algunos de los principales desafíos con que se enfrenta la OMC y la forma en que podrían encararse.
Trade developments in 2012 and early 2013
World trade growth fell to 2.0 per cent in 2012 from 5.2 per cent in 2011, and remained sluggish in the opening months of 2013 as the economic slowdown in Europe suppressed global import demand. The abrupt deceleration of trade in 2012 was mainly attributable to slow growth in developed economies and recurring bouts of uncertainty over the future of the euro. Flagging output and high unemployment in developed countries reduced imports and fed through to a lower pace of export growth in both developed and developing economies. More positive economic developments in the United States in the early months of 2013 were offset by lingering weakness in the European Union, as peripheral euro area economies continued to struggle and even core euro area economies increasingly felt the impact of the downturn in the region.
Robust policies for an uncertain world
This report argues that informality in developing countries deprives about 60 per cent of the workers in these countries of proper income and career opportunities. At the same time, high informality rates limit government resources, which could be used productively, and depress the growth of aggregate demand, hampering a country’s successful integration into the world economy. This means that successful formalization strategies would not only improve the working conditions of large segments of the labour market in those countries, they would also constitute a signifi cant engine of further growth, of both the individual country and the world economy. At the same time, the study argues that the integration of a country into the world economy – if properly managed – can help informal workers by improving their living standards and giving them access to decent working conditions. Integration into world markets and tackling informal employment should thus be considered complementary, as only formal jobs allow a country to benefi t fully from trade openness.
Facteurs économiques fondamentaux affectant le commerce international
La section précédente a montré que l’avenir du commerce et de la croissance économique dépend de plusieurs facteurs. Les prévisions peuvent changer en fonction de l’évolution de chacun de ces facteurs. Cette section examine comment les facteurs économiques fondamentaux qui déterminent l’avenir du commerce international – à savoir la démographie, l’investissement, la technologie, l’énergie et les autres ressources naturelles, les coûts de transport et le cadre institutionnel – sont susceptibles d’évoluer dans les années à venir.
Barriers to trade: The case of Kenya
International trade is the exchange of capital, goods and services across international borders or territories. Even though the WTO advocates trade opening, many WTO members do not liberalize every sector of the economy and, instead, maintain certain barriers to trade. Many of these barriers take the form of non-tariff barriers (NTBs), i.e. discriminatory non-tariff measures (NTMs) imposed by governments to favour domestic over foreign suppliers (Nicita and Gourdon, 2013). Barriers can also take the form of procedural obstacles, i.e. obstacles related to the process of application of an NTM rather than the measure itself.
The increasing importance of developing countries in the global economy
One of the most striking features of the global economy in recent years has been the increasingly large role played by developing economies. This section examines how many countries recorded impressive growth in the last decade while making great strides in reducing poverty. Some have become leading producers and exporters of manufactured goods, agricultural products and commercial services, in some cases eclipsing the industrialized economies. This is especially true of the large developing economies which have taken on more prominent positions in international fora such as the G-20.
The role of international economic law in addressing climate change
Low- and middle-income countries face supply-side constraints such as technical capacities, adequate hard infrastructure capacities, human capital (above all knowhow), access to adequate credit, and access to environmental goods and services that affect their capacity to address climate change and other environmental issues. This chapter discusses how the existing framework of international economic law may constrain the ability of low- or middle-income countries to overcome such supply-side constraints in order to address their, or their trading partners’, environmental concerns regarding climate change and be included in global value chains. We will consider what should be done from a legal perspective, what might be achieved, and the likely implications of international economic law for acquiring and implementing environmentally friendly technologies and financing climate change mitigation and adaptation.
Le commerce électronique en Afrique : défis et possibilités
Le présent chapitre analyse le potentiel que représentent les activités de commerce électronique en Afrique. La croissance rapide de la pénétration d’Internet et de l’utilisation de la téléphonie mobile, ainsi que l’adoption d’innovations mobiles qui ont fortement stimulé l’inclusion financière et encouragé le recours au paiement électronique, ont établi une base solide pour le développement du commerce électronique sur le continent. En revanche, les taux bancaires encore bas, la fragilité des lois et réglementations régissant le secteur et le manque d’harmonisation de ces règles entre les pays limitent le commerce électronique africain. La réduction de la cybercriminalité, l’augmentation de la participation au secteur financier et le renforcement du cadre juridique sont des mesures essentielles pour promouvoir les activités de commerce électronique.
The impact of digital technologies on developing countries’ trade
Using the World Trade Organization (WTO) Global Trade Model (GTM), a recursive, dynamic computable general equilibrium model, we examine the potential future impact of technological innovations, in the form of robotization and use of artificial intelligence (AI), servicification of the production process, and falling trade costs due to the rise of online markets and platforms on the trade of developing countries. The simulations show that technological change will boost trade growth, as a result of both falling trade costs and the more intensive use of information and communications technology (ICT) services. On average, between now and 2030 global trade growth would be 2 percentage points per annum higher as a result of digital technologies. Further, developing countries’ trade growth would be 2.5 percentage points per annum higher and the increase in their share of global trade will be more pronounced the faster they are able to catch up technologically. Another finding from the simulations is that services exports will become a bigger part of global trade, making up more than a quarter of total trade by 2030, and technological changes tend to increase the share of services imports in manufacturing gross output. Finally, these technological developments do not appear to portend a reshoring or localization of production, suggesting that future technological change can go in hand in hand with continuing globalization.
Introduction
Globalization is transforming development. This section examines how, in its scope and speed, the recent rise of the developing world is unprecedented – eclipsing the rise of the newly industrializing countries after the Second World War, and dwarfing the earlier rise of Europe and North America in the late 19th century. There are many reasons why the developing world has achieved economic lift-off. One of the most important is its integration into the world economy – and the new access to markets, technology and investment that has resulted. This rise of the developing world is one of four recent trends that holds new development opportunities while also bringing new challenges. The same is true for three other trends identified here: the spread of production chains, high commodity prices, and growing economic interdependence.
Réglementation des données dans les accords commerciaux : différents modèles et options pour l’avenir
«Les données sont le nouveau pétrole». Tout comme le pétrole, qui a fait tourner l’économie au cours du siècle dernier, les données sont le moteur du monde d’aujourd’hui. Cela est d’autant plus vrai pour le commerce international. Le rôle crucial que jouent les données est perceptible à toutes les étapes du processus, de la conception d’un nouveau produit à l’approvisionnement en matières premières et en pièces, en passant par le processus de fabrication et le transport des produits au-delà des frontières, pour que ceux-ci parviennent aux consommateurs du monde entier.
Nota sobre el Programa de Cátedras OMC
El Programa de Cátedras OMC (PCO) se inició en 2010 como proyecto de creación de capacidad. Su objetivo es ampliar los conocimientos y mejorar la comprensión del sistema de comercio en el mundo académico y entre los encargados de la formulación de políticas de los países en desarrollo mediante actividades de elaboración de programas de estudios, investigación y divulgación en universidades e instituciones de investigación. Puede consultase información sobre el PCO en la siguiente dirección: www.wto.org/wcp.
The potential economic impact of Aid for Trade in the MENA region: The case of Jordan
Many developing and least-developed countries (LDCs) remain on the margins of global trade, attract limited foreign or domestic investment, and have achieved only very limited success in the diversification of their supply of goods and services. Within the framework of Aid for Trade (AFT), attempts are being made to explore strategies to connect firms in developing countries and LDCs to international value chains. The World Trade Organization (WTO) has defined AFT as projects and programmes that have been identified as trade development priorities in the recipient country’s national development strategies. The AFT Task Force established in 2006 underlined that clear and agreed benchmarks are necessary for the global monitoring of AFT efforts. The following categories of AFT were identified: trade policy and regulations (including trade facilitation); trade development; trade-related infrastructure; building productive capacity; trade-related adjustment; and other trade-related needs. According to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), developing countries that have participated in international trade – including trade with other emerging economies – make rapid progress in poverty reduction and job creation (UNDP, 2013).
Executive summary
At the Fourth World Trade Organization Ministerial Meeting held in Doha in November 2001, Ministers launched a comprehensive set of multilateral trade negotiations and a work programme. This mandate is sometimes referred to as the Doha Development Agenda, reflecting a shared desire to ensure that the trading system is relevant and responsive to the needs of developing countries. Among the areas covered by the negotiations or the work programme are market access in manufactures, agriculture and services, certain rules (including anti-dumping, subsidies and countervailing measures, and regional arrangements), trade and environment, trade-related intellectual property rights, the relationship between trade and investment, the interaction between trade and competition policy, transparency in government procurement, trade facilitation, and dispute settlement. Developing countries were particularly instrumental in putting certain issues on the agenda, including trade and technology transfer, trade, debt and finance, small economies, implementation issues (mostly pending from the Uruguay Round) and special and differential treatment. Views continue to differ on how and in some cases whether to include all the issues mentioned above in the negotiations, which are due for completion at the end of 2004.
La tributación del comercio electrónico internacional: particularidades de Rusia
Los tipos impositivos aplicados al comercio electrónico en Rusia deberían seguir siendo moderados, dado el bajo volumen de las operaciones de comercio digital en el país (por lo que un aumento de los tipos apenas incrementaría los ingresos fiscales) y las grandes perspectivas de crecimiento del sector (su desarrollo podría generar elevados ingresos fiscales en el futuro). La tributación de las actividades de comercio electrónico en la Federación de Rusia (Rusia) plantea dos desafíos importantes. En primer lugar, los bienes de consumo comprados directamente a vendedores en línea extranjeros se benefician de ventajas fiscales considerables en comparación con las importaciones adquiridas en establecimientos minoristas rusos, lo que socava la rentabilidad de los importadores rusos y reduce los ingresos fiscales. En segundo lugar, el impuesto sobre el valor añadido (IVA) que grava a los exportadores extranjeros de servicios electrónicos crea incertidumbre, ya que la definición jurídica de los servicios electrónicos es poco clara y obstaculiza las operaciones de las compañías multinacionales en Rusia, dado que se aplica el IVA a las importaciones intraempresariales de servicios. Las autoridades rusas están estableciendo sistemas automatizados eficaces para la recaudación de impuestos y derechos de aduana sobre el comercio electrónico transfronterizo, el cálculo de la compensación del IVA para los exportadores y la contabilización de los ingresos de las tiendas en línea. Estos sistemas contribuirán a evitar abusos del régimen fiscal, así como a reducir el costo que supone el cumplimiento para las empresas.
L’ère du commerce numérique – possibilités et défis pour les pays en développement : Le cas du Kenya
Le commerce électronique a connu une croissance rapide au Kenya, grâce aux lois régissant les services liés aux technologies de l’information et des communications (TIC), les transactions électroniques, la protection des données et l’accès à l’information. Les pouvoirs publics ont mis en place des guichets uniques pour la fourniture de services publics aux citoyens et pour la logistique commerciale. Le pays a les moyens de développer son commerce numérique avec la création de la Zone de libre-échange continentale africaine (ZLECAf), compte tenu des politiques décrites dans le plan directeur pour l’économie numérique du gouvernement. Le développement du commerce numérique ouvrira de nouvelles possibilités pour la fourniture de services en ligne, favorisera la diversification des exportations, augmentera l’efficacité et la croissance du secteur manufacturier, renforcera la concurrence dans le secteur financier, accroîtra l’accès aux informations pertinentes sur le marché et améliorera l’accès au marché pour les micro, petites et moyennes entreprises (MPME). Cependant, le potentiel du commerce numérique est bridé par le manque d’accès aux services financiers, les faibles revenus, la couverture limitée de la large bande et de la fibre optique, l’insuffisance des infrastructures de transport et le manque de compétences. Le cadre juridique et réglementaire du Kenya est insuffisant pour assurer une protection contre la cybercriminalité, garantir le respect de la vie privé, favoriser l’interopérabilité des platesformes de transfert d’argent par téléphone mobile et des banques, accroître la confiance des consommateurs dans les transactions en ligne, protéger la propriété intellectuelle et mettre les sites numériques à l’abri de toute responsabilité pour les messages publiés par leurs utilisateurs.
¿Los avances digitales y el crecimiento inclusivo son objetivos compatibles? Consecuencias para la política comercial en los países en desarrollo
En los últimos años, los responsables de la formulación de políticas han prestado cada vez más atención a dos fenómenos importantes y generalizados: el aumento de la desigualdad (que es el resultado de un acceso desigual al empleo productivo) y la aceleración del ritmo de la cuarta revolución industrial o la “era digital”. En el presente capítulo se estudia el concepto de desigualdad y la razón por la que es importante promover un crecimiento más inclusivo, en particular en los países en desarrollo. También se aportan ideas sobre la forma en que los avances digitales pueden acelerar el crecimiento inclusivo, siempre que los países cuenten con políticas, reglamentaciones e instituciones bien fundamentadas para impulsar los cambios necesarios. De una lectura transversal de las publicaciones especializadas y de los resultados iniciales de un estudio sobre los efectos de los avances digitales en el crecimiento inclusivo en África se desprende claramente que la digitalización y el crecimiento inclusivo son compatibles desde un punto de vista ideológico. Entre las esferas que requieren especial atención de los responsables de la formulación de políticas están las siguientes: i) el problema de la insuficiencia de los datos; ii) una conectividad digital desigual y costosa; y iii) unos sistemas educativos que no preparan a los emprendedores para los empleos más demandados o para el mercado de trabajo del futuro. Dos de los requisitos previos para hacer que las tecnologías digitales impulsen un crecimiento más inclusivo son un marco reglamentario efectivo y un entorno comercial propicio al comercio y la inversión.
Trade Rules, Industrial Policy and Competitiveness: Implications for Africa’s Development
Industrialization is one of the cardinal priorities for economies in dynamic transformation from a commodity base to a diversified value-added development stage. In major African economies, as in other economies worldwide, industrial policy is resurgent and back at the centre of economic policy. The sectors in focus revolve around manufacturing, textiles and clothing, footwear, automobiles, infrastructure, information technology products, petrochemicals, aluminium smelting, agro- and cut flower industries. African economies actively applying industrial policy include Algeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda and South Africa.
Resumen ejecutivo
En la primera sección del Informe sobre el Comercio Mundial, 2004, se examinan la evolución reciente de la estructura, el valor y el volumen del comercio internacional de bienes y servicios, y las perspectivas del comercio para 2004. Se analizan también las preferencias no recíprocas, el movimiento internacional de personas proveedoras de servicios, y las indicaciones geográficas. En la segunda sección se examina el tema de la coherencia de las políticas, subrayando la importancia de las políticas nacionales complementarias para que la liberalización del comercio pueda reportar mayores beneficios a la sociedad. Se centra en cuatro importantes esferas de la formulación de las políticas económicas: i) macroeconomía; ii) situación en materia de infraestructura y servicios de infraestructura, en particular en esferas estrechamente relacionadas con las actividades comerciales (transporte, telecomunicaciones, servicios financieros y servicios prestados a las empresas); iii) estructura de los mercados, haciendo especial hincapié en el nivel de competencia y la existencia de externalidades (factores externos); y iv) calidad de las instituciones. En la última parte de esta segunda sección del Informe se estudia la dimensión internacional de la coherencia y se determina la función de la cooperación internacional en apoyo de la formulación de políticas coherentes a nivel nacional, especialmente en la esfera de la política comercial.
Agricultural Logistics in Lagging Regions: Evidence from Uganda
Small scale farmers face many hurdles when attempting to connect to global markets. While infrastructure and trade facilitation improvements are helping to reduce overall trade costs, the challenges faced by such farmers are most acute at the local level. Efforts to eradicate poverty therefore need to start with constraints at the farmgate. The problems faced are compounded by the general lack access to proper agricultural inputs, technology and intermediate services.
La economía creativa digital y el comercio: opciones estratégicas para los países en desarrollo
El sector creativo es una fuente importante de crecimiento en la economía mundial, y el comercio creativo digital ha aumentado considerablemente en los últimos años, en particular en el contexto de la COVID-19. Los contenidos digitales están sustituyendo a los bienes físicos en el sector, por ejemplo, en el terreno de la música, los libros y los juegos. Los agregadores digitales como Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Spotify, TikTok y YouTube han impulsado un rápido crecimiento y han diversificado los ingresos con la emisión en continuo (streaming), los ingresos por publicidad y la monetización de los datos. También aumentan los ingresos derivados del derecho de autor, y el segmento que presenta un crecimiento más rápido es el de la recaudación digital. La participación de los países en desarrollo en el sector parece estar aumentando, aunque no se dispone de muchos datos. Para aprovechar los posibles beneficios de la economía creativa digital, los países en desarrollo deberían apoyar la transición del típico modelo industrial de profesional independiente que aporta escaso valor añadido a un enfoque de colaboración estratégica que facilite niveles más elevados de emprendimiento creativo y digital. Esto requerirá un marco jurídico e institucional más sólido que permita mejorar la explotación y obtener beneficios económicos del derecho de autor; un apoyo financiero para la comercialización de actividades creativas; la participación del Gobierno en los servicios de apoyo a las empresas (por ejemplo, formación, incubadoras, laboratorios de innovación, incubadoras de mercado, desarrollo de centros y programas de desarrollo de mercados); el establecimiento de instituciones que representen los intereses de los trabajadores y las empresas del sector creativo, y la armonización de las políticas gubernamentales para el sector.
Conclusión
En este informe se ha pasado revista a una amplia gama de cuestiones. En el Resumen Ejecutivo que figura al comienzo del Informe se describen a grandes rasgos los principales temas tratados y las conclusiones formuladas. Un Informe de esta índole debe limitarse a bosquejar cuestiones complejas y basarse en gran medida en la labor analítica más detallada de muchos investigadores. En el texto se hace referencia a esa labor. Muchas de las cuestiones examinadas en el informe son «blancos móviles», sobre todo cuando los gobiernos toman decisiones de política que tienen consecuencias y los Miembros de la OMC participan activamente en importantes negociaciones comerciales.
Executive summary
The expansion of international trade has been essential to development and poverty reduction. Today’s economy is unquestionably global. Trade as a proportion of global GDP has approximately doubled since 1975. Markets for goods and services have become increasingly integrated through a fall in trade barriers, with technology helping drive trade costs lower. But trade is not an end in itself. People measure the value of trade by the extent to which it delivers better livelihoods, through higher incomes, greater choice, and a more sustainable future, among other benefits. For the extreme poor living on less than $1.25 a day, the central value of trade is its potential to help transform their lives and those of their families. In this way, there is no doubt that the integration of global markets through trade openness has made a critical contribution to poverty reduction. The number of people living in extreme poverty around the world has fallen by around one billion since 1990. Without the growing participation of developing countries in international trade, and sustained efforts to lower barriers to the integration of markets, it is hard to see how this reduction could have been achieved.
Emerging issues requiring the attention of the international community
Over the past 20 years, international trade has undergone major changes. One main factor leading to these changes has been the unprecedented pace of technological innovation, which is transforming the traditional way of conducting trade. Supported by increasingly fast and efficient technology, e-commerce has been growing at significant rates. While global trade growth continues to be slow, e-commerce was valued at US$ 22.1 trillion in 2015, a 38% increase from 2013.
Should high domestic value added in exports be an objective of policy?
Global value chains make it easier for developing countries to move away from export reliance on unprocessed primary products to become exporters of manufactures and services. Global value chains (GVCs) allow countries to specialize in a particular activity and join a global production network. As a developing country moves from export of primary products to export of manufactures and services via GVCs, the ratio of domestic value added to gross export value tends to fall. Many developing country policy-makers worry about this trend and aspire to increase their value added contribution to exports. There are a number of reasons why this objective is not good policy. It may seem like simple math that a higher domestic value added share means more total value added exported and hence more GDP. But that simple idea ignores the reality that imported goods and services are a key support to a country’s competitiveness. The chapter documents this via the history of the successful East Asian industrializers as well as more recent evidence from Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economies. If a country artificially replaces key inputs with inferior domestic versions, the end result is likely to be fewer gross exports and less, not more, total value added exports.
Executive summary
At the request of the Group of Least-Developed Countries (LDC Group), the Secretariat of the World Trade Organization, with the support of the Enhanced Integrated Framework (EIF), undertook a project to assess the trade-related implications of graduation from LDC status, in particular the impacts it may have on market access currently enjoyed by the LDCs, as well as their participation in the WTO. This study summarizes those impacts and looks at options for graduating LDCs to smoothly continue their integration into the global economy.
Nueva función de los productos básicos en las estrategias de desarrollo
En esta sección se examinan los problemas y las oportunidades que crean las estrategias de crecimiento y desarrollo centradas en los productos básicos cuando los precios son relativamente altos pero volátiles. En primer lugar figura un panorama histórico de la evolución de los precios de los recursos agropecuarios y naturales. A continuación se analiza el modo en que los países en desarrollo han logrado promover su desarrollo sacando partido de la exportación de sus productos agropecuarios y naturales en este contexto de precios altos. En la sección se ponen de relieve las políticas que han dado buenos resultados y a la vez se señalan los problemas que persisten para hacer efectivo el potencial de exportación. Por último, también se abordan los problemas derivados del aumento de la volatilidad, centrándose en particular en los importadores de alimentos y los exportadores de recursos naturales vulnerables a los ciclos de expansión y recesión.
Selected issues in trade and trade policy
South-South trade has long been promoted as a means to reduce the dependence of developing countries on markets of developed countries and to enhance diversification of Southern exports beyond primary commodities. Most of the mechanisms that were created to foster co-operation among developing countries were largely subregional and regional arrangements, many of them preferential in nature. During the 1950s and 1960s, the promotion of South-South trade was in many instances part of a set of policy measures anchored in a strategy of import substitution behind high trade barriers. South-South trade grew in spurts as developing country economies went through stop and go cycles. Despite efforts to promote and diversify South-South trade, primary products continued to dominate these flows in most regions, and by 1990 South-South trade accounted for only 6.5 per cent of world trade.
Conclusion
As detailed in this report, open global trade has had positive effects for African industrialization and development. Efforts must continue to help developing countries and Africa build capacity and to take fuller advantage of the benefits that trade brings. Recently, faced with the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, some of these efforts have been challenged and the developmental gains of recent years put in question.
Les progrès numériques et la croissance inclusive sont-ils des objectifs compatibles ? Conséquences pour la politique commerciale dans les pays en développement
Au cours des dernières années, l’attention des décideurs a été de plus en plus retenue par deux phénomènes notables et généralisés : les inégalités croissantes (découlant de l’accès inégal à l’emploi productif) et l’accélération de la quatrième révolution industrielle (4RI), appelée «ère numérique». Le présent chapitre analyse les inégalités et présente les raisons pour lesquelles il importe de promouvoir une croissance plus inclusive, en particulier dans les pays en développement. Il livre également des réflexions sur la manière dont les avancées numériques peuvent être mises à profit pour accélérer la croissance inclusive, à condition que les pays s’appuient sur des politiques, des réglementations et des institutions rationnelles pour mettre en place les changements nécessaires. L’examen d’ouvrages représentatifs et des résultats préliminaires d’une étude concernant les effets des progrès numériques sur la croissance inclusive en Afrique montre clairement que le passage au numérique est idéologiquement compatible avec cette forme de croissance. Les problèmes dont les responsables de l’élaboration des politiques doivent se préoccuper tout particulièrement sont notamment : i) l’insuffisance des données ; ii) l’instabilité et le coût trop élevé de la connectivité numérique ; et iii) le fait que les systèmes éducatifs ne préparent pas les entrepreneurs aux métiers de demain ou aux lieux de travail du futur. Deux conditions doivent être remplies pour mettre les technologies numériques au service d’une croissance plus inclusive : un cadre réglementaire efficace et un marché favorable au commerce et à l’investissement.
E-commerce in Africa: issues and challenges
This chapter analyses the potential for e-commerce activities in Africa. The rapid growth of internet penetration and the use of mobile telephony, along with the adoption of mobile innovations that have greatly boosted financial inclusion and encouraged reliance on electronic payment, have established a strong basis for e-commerce development on the continent. On the other hand, still-low banking rates, fragile laws and regulations governing the sector, and a lack of cross-country harmonization of these rules constrain African e-commerce. Reducing cybercrime, increasing participation in the financial sector and strengthening of the legal framework are key steps to promote e-commerce activities.
Avant-propos
Nouvelle publication du Secrétariat de l’OMC, le Rapport sur le commerce mondial proposera chaque année une analyse de l’évolution observée dans ce domaine et des questions de fond importantes pour le système des échanges. Au-delà du suivi et de l’interprétation des grandes tendances du commerce international, il s’efforcera d’aider le public à mieux comprendre les problèmes du moment. Le rapport ne prétend cependant pas apporter une réponse globale à des questions qui sont complexes et dont les multiples facettes font l’objet de discussions incessantes au sein des États et des peuples. En s’appliquant à rappeler la genèse des problèmes posés et à offrir un cadre pour leur analyse, il vise plutôt à permettre à chacun de débattre en toute connaissance de cause et de mieux évaluer les ripostes qui peuvent être envisagées.
Tendances récentes
Le commerce international s’est repris en 2002, après le recul enregistré l’année précédente, augmentant d’environ 2,5 pour cent en volume, soit plus vite que la production mondiale. Ce redressement s’est opéré malgré la faiblesse de la reprise économique mondiale, la forte compression des flux de capitaux, les amples fluctuations des taux de change, les restrictions plus sévères imposées sur les transactions commerciales internationales pour limiter les risques liés au terrorisme et la montée des tensions géopolitiques. Le commerce a connu une vigoureuse expansion en Asie et dans les économies en transition, qui reflète en grande partie l’amélioration des résultats économiques dans ces régions. Il a cependant stagné en Europe occidentale et reculé en Amérique latine par suite des turbulences économiques survenues dans plusieurs pays de la région. Les importations d’Amérique du Nord ont repris parallèlement au renforcement de la demande intérieure, tandis que les exportations ont continué à diminuer en 2002.
Introduction
La mondialisation est en train de transformer le développement. Par son ampleur et sa rapidité, l’essor récent du monde en développement est sans précédent, éclipsant celui des nouveaux pays industrialisés après la Seconde Guerre mondiale et celui de l’Europe et de l’Amérique du Nord à la fin du XIXe siècle. De nombreux facteurs expliquent le décollage économique du monde en développement. L’un des plus importants est son intégration dans l’économie mondiale, qui lui assure un nouvel accès aux marchés, à la technologie et à l’investissement. L’essor des économies en développement est l’une des quatre tendances récentes qui offrent de nouvelles possibilités de développement tout en créant de nouveaux défis. Il en va de même des trois autres tendances analysées ici: le développement des chaînes de production, le niveau élevé des prix des produits de base et l’interdépendance économique croissante.
Conclusiones
El primer Informe sobre el Comercio Mundial, publicado en 2003, se centró en el comercio y el desarrollo. En su análisis de la relación económica entre esas dos esferas, el informe examinó de qué forma la Ronda de Doha -puesta en marcha apenas dos años antes- podía impulsar el desarrollo.
Synchronisation et mondialisation des chocs macroéconomiques
Dans cette section, il sera question de la synchronisation et de la propagation accrues des chocs macroéconomiques au cours des dernières années, après ce qui semblait être une modération générale de la volatilité. Elle examine le rôle des chaînes de valeur mondiales dans la transmission des chocs macroéconomiques et la façon dont les structures d’exportation influent sur la volatilité. Elle décrit comment la crise économique s’est propagée des pays développés aux pays en développement et comment l’adoption d’une réponse coordonnée a permis de limiter le recours à des mesures protectionnistes à la suite de la crise. Bien que cette crise économique ait été la plus grave que le monde ait connu depuis les années 1930, le protectionnisme a été évité. Cela s’explique, entre autres, par l’existence d’un ensemble de règles commerciales multilatérales.
Acknowledgements
This third book prepared under the auspices of the WTO Chairs Programme (WCP), Adapting to the digital trade era: challenges and opportunities, contains contributions from the WTO Chairholders of Phases I and II, Advisory Board (AB) members, WCP team and WTO staff members who peer reviewed individual chapters and offered their perspectives on the Chairs’ analyses and findings. It contains a total of 16 chapters and 13 commentaries, providing various insights on digital trade. Several chapters were presented as working papers during the Aid for Trade side event held at the WTO from 3 to 5 July 2019 and during an academic WCP session held at the Public Forum on 9 October 2019. These events provided opportunities to AB members, academics, delegates, policymakers and representatives from civil society to comment on the papers and discuss the policy options emanating from the analyses.
Foreword
This report on the “trade impacts of LDC graduation” responds to a specific request from the LDC Group in the WTO for an analysis of how graduating from LDC status will impact countries’ trade relations. LDCs are accorded special treatment in the WTO, in particular with regard to enhanced market access opportunities and policy flexibilities. Therefore, it is important to ascertain how the loss of such treatment will impact graduating LDCs. The issue has assumed special significance with a quarter of the LDCs on the path to graduation and the associated loss of benefits tied to this status.
From Marrakesh to Nairobi: Africa – A Force for the World Trading System: From the Past Twenty Years to the Next Twenty Years
Morocco’s membership of the GATT and WTO has been part of an overall strategy of the Government of the Kingdom of Morocco, at the instigation of the late King Hassan II, to introduce a package of institutional and socio-economic reforms, which sought mainly to modify and diversify the structure of the national economy, optimize the allocation of its resources and ensure its integration into the world economy. Being a Member of the Multilateral Trading System is also an expression of the government’s wish to integrate more fully into the world economy by anchoring its reforms in the legal primacy of an international agreement, rather than just in domestic legislation, as reaffirmed by the Constitution adopted in 2011. In doing so, Morocco made opening up its economy a firm and irreversible commitment.
Prólogo
Nos complace presentar las observaciones preliminares de esta recopilación de trabajos de investigación sobre el comercio digital preparada por los titulares de las Cátedras OMC, los miembros de la Junta Consultiva y el equipo del Programa de Cátedras OMC (PCO) de la Secretaría de la OMC.
Global value chains and employment in developing economies
The emergence of global value chains – whereby goods that used to be produced within one country are now fragmented and distributed across global networks of production – has offered developing countries new opportunities to integrate into the global economy. This has also had fundamental impacts for workers in developing countries. The chapter shows that higher earnings and employment within sectors and firms is associated with GVC integration, which also supports other spillovers that operate through labor markets. But it has also had distributional implications of where jobs go and the types of jobs they are. Jobs growth has occurred directly in the export sector, as well as indirectly through linkages of exporting firms to domestic, input-supplying firms. Employment creation and wage gains have been biased towards more skilled workers in developing countries, which contrasts with the predictions of trade theory. The skill-biased nature of GVC trade is associated with increased complexity of global supply chains as well as increased use of skill-intensive inputs, notably services. New emerging trends, including automation and digitization, may further determine how employment in developing countries will be affected by GVC trade in the future. The findings point to education as well as trade and labor policies as important factors for strengthening the GVC-labor relationship.
Agradecimientos
Este tercer libro preparado bajo los auspicios del Programa de Cátedras OMC (PCO), Adaptación a la era del comercio digital: desafíos y oportunidades, incluye contribuciones de los titulares de las Cátedras OMC de las fases I y II, los miembros de la Junta Consultiva, el equipo del PCO y de funcionarios de la OMC, que realizaron un examen por homólogos de los distintos capítulos y aportaron sus puntos de vista sobre los análisis y las conclusiones de las Cátedras. Contiene un total de 16 capítulos y 13 comentarios, que aportan diversas ideas sobre el comercio digital. Varios capítulos se presentaron como documentos de trabajo durante una actividad paralela del Examen Global de la Ayuda para el Comercio celebrada en la OMC del 3 al 5 de julio de 2019 y en una sesión académica del PCO que tuvo lugar en el Foro Público el 9 de octubre de 2019. Esos actos brindaron oportunidades para que miembros de la Junta Consultiva, académicos, delegados, responsables de la formulación de políticas y representantes de la sociedad civil hicieran comentarios sobre los documentos y debatieran acerca de las opciones de política derivadas de los análisis.
The Doha Development Agenda
An underlying objective of the WTO is to promote economic development through effective participation in world trade. Three aspects of the WTO’s structure and rules are relevant to the question of how developing countries can derive greater benefits from participation in the trading system. First, the rules themselves, together with permitted exceptions and interpretations, are the foundation of the system and play a key part in determining the conditions and opportunities of trade. Second, there is the question of the coverage of the system. No examples exist of topics that the WTO has taken up and then discarded, so this is about the inclusion of new areas. Third, the pattern of protection facing a country’s exports also goes a long way in defining trading conditions and opportunities. In short, the nature of WTO rules, the reach of these rules, and conditions of market access are the three major areas that determine the quality and utility of the WTO for its Members. Not surprisingly, each of these three elements features prominently in the Doha Development Agenda.
L’économie mondiale et le commerce mondial en 2013 et au début de 2014
En 2013, la croissance du commerce mondial des marchandises est restée modérée à 2,2%, soit à peu près le même niveau que l’année précédente (2,3%). Les augmentations enregistrées en 2012 et 2013 étaient inférieures à la moyenne des 20 dernières années (5,3%), et nettement en deçà de la moyenne des 20 années précédant la crise de 2008–2009. Le volume du commerce mondial des marchandises a continué de croître lentement dans les premiers mois de 2014, avec une augmentation de 2,1% au premier trimestre par rapport à la même période de 2013. On s’attend à une croissance plus importante sur l’ensemble de l’année avec la reprise de l’économie mondiale pendant cette période.
Auge de las cadenas de valor mundiales
Si bien la fragmentación de la producción mundial no es un fenómeno nuevo, su importancia sí ha ido aumentando con el paso del tiempo. La tendencia es consecuencia de las innovaciones tecnológicas registradas en las comunicaciones y el transporte, que han reducido los costos de coordinación y con ello han hecho posible que los países se especializaran en la producción de determinadas tareas o componentes, en lugar de productos finales completos. En la sección se examinan los drásticos cambios que han experimentado la naturaleza, la magnitud y el alcance de las cadenas de valor mundiales durante los dos últimos decenios. Se analizan las oportunidades que pueden ofrecer las cadenas de valor a los países en desarrollo para integrarse en la economía mundial con menores costos, pero se subraya que la integración en esas cadenas no rinde beneficios automáticamente. Se evalúan los riesgos que entraña la participación en cadenas de valor mundiales y se expone la correlación entre las diversas políticas aplicadas por los países y su participación en las cadenas de valor.
Trade Policy Trends in Africa: Empirical Evidence from Twenty Years of WTO Trade Policy Reviews
Trade liberalization has been a key component of economic development and transformation in the global economy since the middle of the last century and is a leading force in fostering globalization and connectivity in the twenty-first century. Trade reform has been on the agenda of African economies, first under the IMF-supported structural adjustment programmes of the 1980s and the early 1990s, and subsequently pursued within the multilateral legal and policy framework of the WTO. Following two decades of rapid trade growth in Africa, the evidence suggests that significant barriers to trade remain within Africa, impeding its integration to regional and global value chains. Considerable scope exists for the use of trade policy to accelerate and deepen sustained economic development and transformation. African economies should embark on the next generation of trade and associated structural reforms more aggressively and ambitiously.