Economic research and trade policy analysis

Le commerce international des combustibles et des produits pharmaceutiques s’est développé à un rythme supérieur à la moyenne ces dernières années, ce qui a modifié la structure du commerce mondial des marchandises. Ces modifications sont analysées ci-après.

Although small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) represent the vast majority of firms worldwide, their participation in international trade remains limited relative to their share of overall economic activity and employment as compared to large firms. The rise of the digital economy could, however, open a range of new opportunities for small firms to play a more active role in global value chains (GVCs). This chapter reviews evidence of SME participation in international trade and production networks and looks at how the digitalization of our economies is already affecting, or could affect future, SME contributions to GVCs. New research by Lanz et al. (2018) finds evidence that digitally-connected SMEs in developing countries tend to import a higher share of their inputs than non-digitally-connected firms. Additionally, it is shown that this positive digital effect is greater for SMEs than it is for large firms. The chapter reviews the various opportunities that the digital economy opens for SMEs, especially in terms of cost reductions and the emergence of new business models, but also discusses policy measures that could be taken to promote SME participation in GVCs. Indeed, significant challenges remain for SMEs to enter GVCs, some of which are exacerbated by the new digital economy. A holistic approach that combines investment in ICT infrastructure and human capital with trade policy measures and measures to improve the business environment, access to finance and logistics, and promote innovation and R&D is necessary. Improving the availability of data would also help to better understand and integrate SMEs in GVCs.

In July 2012, the WTO General Council agreed on a set of new and improved guidelines to facilitate and accelerate negotiations on the accession to the WTO of least-developed countries (LDCs). The process of acceding to the WTO is complex, time-consuming and resource-intensive for candidate countries, and for LDCs, which have limited institutional and administrative capacity, in particular. The WTO accession process is very much a political process, and requires countries to undertake far-reaching domestic reforms in order to be in a position to implement WTO rules from day one of membership, as well as to benefit from MFN market access from WTO members and vice versa. The prolonged accession process is designed to enable acceding LDCs (and others) to acquire the knowledge and expertise to negotiate not only the terms and conditions for their membership, but also to function as viable members of the rules-based system. This chapter examines the enhanced guidelines and asks whether the WTO needs to improve the procedures for the benefit of LDCs and of the WTO. It examines how the WTO accession process and procedures, as well as the scope of the reforms it requires, compare to EU considerations in the process of its enlargement, and argues that, while the enhanced LDC accession guidelines have made an important contribution, some additional steps may need to be contemplated in the future. However, before a further enhancement is contemplated, it must be understood that the accession process, and the substance of WTO accession negotiations, in all serious institutions, are based on a partnership. This is a fundamental lesson from all successfully completed accessions and enlargement processes. The process is neither unilateral nor automatic.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) is a relatively new international organization. However, it is responsible for a system that is over 50 years old. Established on 1 January 1995, the WTO replaced the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), which dated back to 1948. This was a consequence of a decision taken by governments after seven and a half years of negotiations (the "Uruguay Round"), which ended in 1994. With the WTO's creation, the rules were expanded to new areas. While the GATT dealt with trade in goods only, the WTO covers trade in services and intellectual property as well. There are also some areas, such as textiles, agriculture and sanitary and phytosanitary measures, where the WTO goes beyond the GATT by having established specific trade rules. Under the WTO, the procedure for settling trade disputes has also been strengthened.

India opened its domestic market to international trade in the early 1990s. The decision had profound implications on the development trajectory of the country. Trade opening allowed the country’s firms to source inputs more cheaply and increase their competitiveness. At the same time, it meant that firms in India were exposed to increased competition from abroad, while consumers enjoyed lower prices for final goods. While the trade opening helped boost economic growth, it required an adjustment of capital and labor within and across sectors.

A country’s bid for WTO membership can promote a feeling of challenge and uncertainty among members of the private sector as the long-established methods of conducting business are susceptible to undergoing considerable change. In order to overcome the potential resistance to this change, acceding governments have responded to the concerns of their businesses by adopting strategies to raise awareness of the long-term benefits of reform during the negotiating period. In this chapter we document some of the benefits related to trade and investment for Article XII members that have undertaken awareness raising strategies and necessary reforms during their accession processes. This chapter underlines that accession commitments, which are critical to bringing about domestic policy and regulatory reforms, need to be implemented in the right spirit to develop business competitiveness in the long run.

Trade, the exchange of goods, services and information between individuals or groups, is as old as human history. Expanding trade is a central component of the increasing connectedness among countries.

This paper is designed to provide a more granular perspective than the traditional aggregate view that economists take of supply chains. In particular, I want to add a behavioural dimension, and introduce a more dynamic methodology, capable of addressing the increasingly volatile operating environments that are likely to pervade future trading conditions within and between countries, whether developed or developing.

This section examines how international trade cooperation can help governments all over the world harness digital technologies and seize the new trading opportunities they will create for firms both large and small. Section D.1 summarizes the main opportunities and challenges that arise with the expansion of digital trade. Section D.2 provides examples of the policies that governments put in place to exploit these opportunities and to address these challenges. Section D.3 then considers whether and how international cooperation can help governments exploit the gains from digital trade, cope with the challenges and at the same time achieve their public policy objectives, now and in the future.

A core objective of accession results is to establish a legal foundation for the conduct and management of trade policy based on the rule of law. Implementation of accession commitments hinges on the existence of an effective domestic framework for making and enforcing policies. Customarily, this is described in the third chapter of working party reports. Twenty-eight of the members that acceded pursuant to procedures in Article XII of the Marrakesh Agreement Establishing the World Trade Organization (WTO Agreement), have undertaken a total of fifty-five accession-specific commitments in this regard. The uniquely definable pattern that has emerged from WTO Accession Protocols confirms the uniform applicability of the WTO Agreement throughout and across the entirety of the customs territory of the new member, the exclusive authority of central governments to implement and enforce WTO rules, the strengthening of due process and the rule of law, and the precedence of ratified international treaties over domestic legislation, in many instances. These commitments are integral to the WTO Agreement and are enforceable under the WTO Dispute Settlement Understanding. Although normative and standard, they confirm the long-standing accession practice that a range of original members have not confirmed and from which several deviate. This chapter studies the specific accession-specific commitments in the domestic framework for making and enforcing policies. It also investigates the relationship between Accession Protocols and domestic legal systems and asks whether original members undertook similar obligations.

This chapter considers political, commercial and legal aspects of accession negotiations and the compromises by all parties involved to make accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) a reality. Using the negotiations on the accessions of the Russian Federation and Samoa as case studies, this chapter analyses how political constraints, economic interests and legal commitments affected the course of the negotiations. In the case of the Russian Federation, the focus was on certain investment programmes in the automotive industry that were deemed inconsistent with the Agreement on Trade-Related Investment Measures (TRIMs). Agreement on these measures required prolonged negotiations, including at ministerial levels, to find a satisfactory solution for all parties involved. In the case of Samoa, attention was focused on the appropriate level of flexibility to be granted to a least-developed country (LDC), as the expansion of LDC membership is a priority for the Organization, in accordance with the Guidelines on LDCs’ accessions. The chapter concludes that the experience of accession negotiations has helped to define domestic reform in acceding members, clarify the application of WTO provisions in practice, upgrade regional integration frameworks and counter negative political pressures. These lessons can be used in negotiations by other acceding economies and constitute important building blocks of the upper floors of the international trading system.

Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) present an issue of significant political and economic interest as they create jobs and drive development in developing and advanced countries. However, there is a perception that SMEs face a conundrum in the new realities brought about by globalisation. While supply chains present a portal for SMEs into international markets, they also open up SME market niches to encroaching large-sized enterprises (LEs). The competitive capabilities imparted by supply chain management (SCM) literature is suggested here for SMEs to compete against LEs; a slingshot in the battle between David and Goliath. The literature, however, reveals a controversy over whether SCM, in reality, helps or hurts SMEs. Some of the reasoning points to the presence of an LE perspective bias, and SMEs sometimes consider SCM as a threat, not a solution. The recent literature is addressing this issue by taking up the SME perspective, but the question of an SCM for SMEs is still in a very early stage of development. More effort will be required to gather data and build theory for SMEs in both developed and developing markets.

el Informe sobre el Comercio Mundial 2009 se centra principalmente en ciertas medidas de contingencia a que pueden recurrir los Miembros de la OMC en el ámbito de la importación y exportación de mercancías. El marco jurídico de estas medidas está mucho menos desarrollado en el caso del comercio de servicios, aunque este asunto también se analiza.

Dans cette section, il sera question des principaux objectifs que les pouvoirs publics prétendent poursuivre au moyen des subventions, tels que le développement industriel, l’innovation, le soutien de “champions“ nationaux, la protection de l’environnement et la redistribution. Sous la rubrique générale de la “redistribution“, nous examinerons trois objectifs plus spécifiques: l’utilisation de subventions à des fins de politique régionale, l’aide à l’ajustement pour les secteurs en déclin et les obligations de service universel. Ce choix ne prétend pas être exhaustif, mais il couvre certains des principaux objectifs poursuivis par les gouvernements des pays en développement et des pays développés.

This book explores the complex relationship between international trade and poverty reduction through a combination of research papers and contemporary case studies. Written mainly by developing country authors in consultation with local businesses and communities, the case studies contribute to our understanding of the ways in which low-income communities are dealing with trade as a practical challenge, especially in the Asia-Pacific region where approximately two thirds of the world’s poor live. While making it clear that there is no ‘one size fits all’ formula, the research and stories highlight a number of necessary preconditions – such as political commitment and cooperation at all levels – if trade is to successfully reduce poverty. Openness to trade, serious commitment to domestic reform, trade-related capacity building, a robust and responsible private sector and access to the markets of developed countries are all identified as powerful tools for building trade-related sustainable development.

The goal of this report is to improve the understanding of the impacts of trade and trade policy on gender equality, and to provide policy makers with evidence on the benefits of trade for women and with potential policy solutions. The report uses a conceptual framework that illustrates the diverse transmission channels through which trade and trade policy can affect women, according to three key economic roles they play: workers, consumers, and decision makers. The report also gathers and analyzes new data1 to show how trade and trade policy can affect women and men differently—in wages, consumption, and welfare, and in the quality and quantity of jobs available to them. New empirical analysis based on these data suggests that expanding trade can act as an impetus for countries to improve women’s rights and boost female participation in the economy.

In 2015, the World Bank and the World Trade Organization published a flagship report on the role of trade in the effort to end poverty by 2030. Over the past three years, the two organizations have collaborated in various ways to advance that goal, from supporting implementation of the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement; to assisting the poor, including women and small-scale traders, to take advantage of trade opportunities; to supporting trade reforms in the world’s poorest countries.

El presente informe ha puesto de manifiesto que es importante establecer una distinción entre las normas según su función. El marco teórico adoptado en el informe distingue las normas relativas a las externalidades de red, a la información imperfecta y a las externalidades negativas de la producción o del consumo.

This section looks at key features of natural resources trade from a theoretical perspective. Does trade provide an efficient mechanism for ensuring access to natural resources? What is the impact of trade on finite or exhaustible resources, including under conditions of “open access” where there is a common ownership of – and access to – a natural resource? Is there a relationship between trade and its impact on the environment? Does trade reinforce or reduce problems associated with resource dominance in certain economies? And how does trade affect resource price volatility? These broad questions are addressed by surveying the relevant theoretical literature on the determinants and effects of trade in natural resources.

Le monde tel que nous le connaissons aujourd’hui a été façonné par les innovations technologiques. Une nouvelle technologie, la chaîne de blocs – technologie de registres distribués –, a été accueillie par beaucoup avec enthousiasme et optimisme comme le prochain grand facteur de changement. La chaîne de blocs, qui permet de diffuser des données et des informations numériques de manière sûre, transparente et immuable sans avoir à recourir à un tiers de confiance unique, est une technologie particulièrement prometteuse. Elle pourrait permettre aux individus et aux entreprises du monde entier d’effectuer des transactions de manière plus efficace, plus économique et plus rapide, tout en conservant un haut niveau de sécurité. Elle pourrait avoir un impact considérable sur la façon de réaliser les opérations commerciales, qu’il s’agisse des transactions financières ou des transactions commerciales transfrontières physiques, en réduisant les coûts de traitement, de vérification, de suivi, de coordination et de transport grâce à la simplification et à la numérisation des processus qui impliquent de multiples parties prenantes et qui étaient, jusqu’à présent, fortement tributaires du papier. Elle pourrait réduire la fraude, permettre une meilleure administration des droits de propriété intellectuelle, renforcer la traçabilité et la confiance dans les chaînes de valeur et offrir de nouvelles possibilités aux petites entreprises.

Over the past decade, world trade has expanded signifi cantly. By 2007, global trade had reached more than 60 per cent of world GDP, compared with less than 30 per cent in the mid-1980s. Few would contest that increased trade has contributed to global growth and job creation. However, strong growth in the global economy has not, so far, led to a corresponding improvement in working conditions and living standards for many. Absolute poverty has declined, thanks to the economic dynamism of recent years, the efforts of private companies, migrant workers and their remittances and the international development community. Nevertheless, in many instances, labour market conditions and the quality of employment growth have not improved to the same degree. In many developing economies job creation has mainly taken place in the informal economy, where around 60 per cent of workers fi nd income opportunities. However, the informal economy is characterized by less job security, lower incomes, an absence of access to a range of social benefi ts and fewer possibilities to participate in formal education and training programmes – in short, the absence of key ingredients of decent work opportunities.

The starting point for any economist is the superiority of the market mechanism of free exchange in efficiently allocating resources and thereby maximizing social welfare. However, in order for that ‘invisible hand’ to perform its winning act, the market needs to display certain characteristics

This chapter looks at the relationship between the WTO accession process and structural reforms in developing countries. It finds that developing economies that are in the process of acceding to the WTO commit to more policy reforms (proxied by prior actions in the context of the World Bank’s development policy lending) than developing countries that are already members of the WTO or that have not applied to become members. It also finds that, for almost all developing economies acceding to the WTO, the country risk, measured by a composite indicator of political, financial and economic risk called the International Country Risk Guide, and the policy and institutional indicator, measured by the World Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessment, significantly improve when a country achieves WTO membership compared with at the beginning of the WTO accession process.

The Global Value Chains Development Report is a joint publication of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the Institute of Developing Economies (IDE–JETRO), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the Research Center of Global Value Chains (RCGVC-UIBE), the World Bank Group, and the China Development Research Foundation, based on joint research efforts to better understand the ongoing development and evolution of global value chains and their implications for economic development.

Many of the challenges that face MSMEs in their search for financing are broad in scope and cannot easily be addressed by any single solution. As one of the fintech respondents [*22 Fintech] observes, “It is easy to say that technology is the answer here, and while innovation will help banks distribute trade finance assets to smaller investors and better understand the risks associated with MSMEs, there is also a greater change needed”. At this early stage of the adoption of such technological innovation, there is very little evidence to suggest that it is being utilized by corporates and MSMEs just yet. That said, it is difficult to dispute that technological innovation and the various emerging technologies in the industry are a critical piece in the puzzle of overcoming these challenges.

The economy of Chinese Taipei has always been highly dependent on trade. Nevertheless, its WTO accession negotiations were demanding – although the results have been significant and beneficial – involving a total of eleven formal meetings and five informal meetings for the working party, and approximately 200 bilateral meetings between Chinese Taipei and thirty different WTO members. The gradual opening of Chinese Taipei’s market exposed domestic industries to global competition, necessitating a process of adjustment and adaptation that has ultimately led to economic growth. For the more vulnerable industries, the challenges of market liberalisation have acted as an incentive to restructure and reinvent in order to improve competitiveness. Chinese Taipei’s accession to the WTO has also been a catalyst for the globalisation and development of these industries and necessitated a process of adjustment and adaptation that has ultimately led to economic growth. The trade policies and regulations of Chinese Taipei underwent a thorough review and revision as a result of the requirements of WTO membership, and this legislative overhaul has been highly beneficial in modernising the trade regime.

The first Section of the World Trade Report 2004 discusses recent developments in the structure, value and volume of international trade in goods and services, and trade prospects for 2004. It also includes analyses of non-reciprocal preferences, the international movement of persons supplying services, and geographical indications. The second Section of WTR 2004 then examines the subject of policy coherence, stressing the importance of complementary national policies to enable trade liberalization to create larger benefits for society. It focuses on four important areas of economic policymaking. They are: i) the macroeconomy; ii) the state of infrastructure and infrastructural services, particularly in areas linked closely to trade performance (transport, telecommunications, financial services and business services); iii) market structure, with special emphasis on the level of competition and presence of externalities; and iv) the quality of institutions. The last part of the second Section of the Report then explores the international dimensions of coherence, identifying the role of international cooperation in supporting coherent policy formulation at the national level, particularly in the field of trade policy.

That the global economy has gone through a period both of enormous dynamism and of enormous disruption over the past quarter-century is hardly surprising – the two are inextricably linked. The world economy only grows when productivity rises; and productivity only rises when the world economy generates more and better output more efficiently. Current concerns about globalization in many countries are traceable at least in part to the economic adjustment challenge posed by a global economy becoming ever more productive. The World Trade Report 2017 looks at two of the most powerful drivers of global economic advance today, technology and trade, and examines how they are affecting labour markets. It analyses how the challenges of adjusting to this new labour market are changing and how economies are adapting. In particular, it examines the similarities and differences in the way that technology, on the one hand, and trade, on the other, influence labour market outcomes.

Border checkpoints in developing countries often teem with traders transporting small quantities on foot or pushing carts alongside trucks that sport the insignia of formal companies. Those small-scale, cross-border traders may eventually be superseded by larger import-export firms. But during the process of development, their trade may be a valuable avenue for poverty alleviation and women’s empowerment. This chapter focuses on the latter in the context of small-scale, cross-border trade in Cambodia and Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). It analyzes recent survey research undertaken by the World Bank and draws conclusions about the key policy implications for facilitating the poverty-reducing impact of women’s participation in small-scale, cross-border trade.

The emergence of the People’s Republic of China as a great economic power has stimulated an epochal shift in patterns of world trade, in contradiction to the conventional wisdom regarding the impact of trade on labor markets in developed countries (Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 2016). The global effects of the People’s Republic of China’s trade and economic growth has been widely documented (Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 2013; Bugamelli, Fabiani, and Sette 2015; Balsvik, Jensen, and Salvanes 2015; Giovanni, Levchenko, and Zhang 2014; Hsieh and Ossa 2011), reshaping our understanding of the consequences of trade for wages, unemployment, and other labor market outcomes.

This report argues that informality in developing countries deprives about 60 per cent of the workers in these countries of proper income and career opportunities. At the same time, high informality rates limit government resources, which could be used productively, and depress the growth of aggregate demand, hampering a country’s successful integration into the world economy. This means that successful formalization strategies would not only improve the working conditions of large segments of the labour market in those countries, they would also constitute a signifi cant engine of further growth, of both the individual country and the world economy. At the same time, the study argues that the integration of a country into the world economy – if properly managed – can help informal workers by improving their living standards and giving them access to decent working conditions. Integration into world markets and tackling informal employment should thus be considered complementary, as only formal jobs allow a country to benefi t fully from trade openness.

Greater exposure to international trade improves productivity by increasing competition, expanding product markets, and improving access to production inputs. Productivity increases at the industry level because competitive pressure leads to a reallocation of resources to more productive firms, while the least productive ones are forced to exit the market (Melitz 2003; Melitz and Ottaviano 2008; Eslava et al. 2013). The productivity of firms can also increase because heightened competition from imported products pushes them to invest in new processes, technologies, and skills to survive (Shu and Steinwender 2019). The possibility to expand into larger export markets also incentivizes firms to improve the production efficiency and the quality of their products (Bustos 2011). And access to a larger range of intermediate production inputs potentially lowers the input costs of firms, improves product quality, and expands product variety (Fieler, Eslava, and Xu 2018; Goldberg et al. 2010; Amiti and Konings 2007). Indeed, a positive and significant causal effect of trade—measured as the sum of exports plus imports to a country’s gross domestic product—on aggregate productivity has long been established in the economic literature (Alcalá and Ciccone 2004; Alesina, Spolaore, and Wacziarg 2000; Frankel and Romer 1999).

Durante las últimas décadas, Internet ha afectado a todos los aspectos de nuestras vidas, desde las interacciones sociales hasta el ocio y el trabajo, y ha transformado radicalmente nuestras economías, reduciendo el costo de adquirir e intercambiar información. Internet ha impulsado la revolución digital, ha modificado fundamentalmente la forma en que nos comunicamos, consumimos, producimos y comerciamos y ha tenido profundas repercusiones en el comercio internacional, en términos de qué se comercia, cómo se comercia y quiénes comercian.

Précédemment dans le rapport, nous avons examiné les arguments économiques qui plaident pour ou contre différents types de subventions. L’analyse économique nous montre qu’il est parfois possible de remédier efficacement à divers types de défaillances du marché en recourant à des subventions. Elle nous montre également que les subventions peuvent fausser les courants d’échanges si elles donnent un avantage concurrentiel artificiel à des exportateurs ou à des branches de production concurrençant les importations. Le fait qu’une subvention est considérée comme une intervention souhaitable destinée à corriger une défaillance du marché ou comme une intervention ayant des effets de distorsion des échanges indésirables dépend parfois de la personne qui juge. Cela étant, l’analyse économique devrait pouvoir aider à la fois à déterminer si une intervention est souhaitable sur le plan de bien-être et à évaluer les bienfaits d’autres formes d’intervention. Les pouvoirs publics peuvent cependant décider d’accorder certains types de subventions qui ont peu de choses à voir avec des considérations en matière d’efficacité et, en pareils cas, une analyse économique fondée sur une simple analyse du bien-être peut être d’une utilité limitée. Dans ces cas également, il est probable que l’analyse est surtout utile pour faire en sorte que les décideurs soient conscients du coût que représente la réalisation d’objectifs particuliers et prennent connaissance d’autres façons moins coûteuses d’y parvenir. Nous savons aussi que juger de ce qu’il faut subventionner ainsi que du montant et de la durée de la subvention représente des questions techniques complexes sur lesquelles les pouvoirs publics manquent souvent d’informations adéquates.

International trade is the exchange of capital, goods and services across international borders or territories. Even though the WTO advocates trade opening, many WTO members do not liberalize every sector of the economy and, instead, maintain certain barriers to trade. Many of these barriers take the form of non-tariff barriers (NTBs), i.e. discriminatory non-tariff measures (NTMs) imposed by governments to favour domestic over foreign suppliers (Nicita and Gourdon, 2013). Barriers can also take the form of procedural obstacles, i.e. obstacles related to the process of application of an NTM rather than the measure itself.

Le Rapport sur le commerce mondial 2019 a été établi sous la responsabilité générale de Xiaozhun Yi, Directeur général adjoint de l’OMC, et de Robert Koopman, Directeur de la Division de la recherche économique et des statistiques. La rédaction du Rapport a été coordonnée par Emmanuelle Ganne et Stela Rubínová (Division de la recherche économique et des statistiques) et par Antonia Carzaniga (Division du commerce des services et de l’investissement). Les auteurs principaux du Rapport sont Barbara d’Andrea, Andreas Maurer, Roberta Piermartini et Robert Teh (Division de la recherche économique et des statistiques) et Antonia Carzaniga. Les autres auteurs sont Marc Auboin, Eddy Bekkers, John Hancock, Kathryn Lundquist, José-Antonio Monteiro, Coleman Nee, Victor Stolzenburg, Ankai Xu et Qing Ye (Division de la recherche économique et des statistiques) ; Pamela Apaza, Markus Jelitto, Joscelyn Magdeleine, Juan Marchetti, Martin Roy et Lee Tuthill (Division du commerce des services et de l’investissement) et Rainer Lanz (Division du développement).

This study is the outcome of collaborative research between the Secretariat of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the International Labour Office (ILO). It addresses an issue that is of important concern to both organizations, that is, the relationship between trade and employment.